Part 6 -- Expand the Big 12
1. Texas and Oklahoma keep everyone together
Big 12 schools currently earn the 4th-most from the top two tiers of TV rights, coming in behind the Big Ten (rumored to be at least $25M), SEC ($25M), and Pac-12 ($21M). However, the Pac-12 only makes more because of its conference championship game, something the Big 12 doesn't have yet, but could, and would add at least $2M to each school. Meanwhile, coming in a distant 5th is the ACC, which averages only $18M per school for all TV rights.
If the Power 5 conferences get slimmed down to 4, the battle for the last spot will be between the ACC and Big 12. The Big 12 was the only one of the Power 5 to lose schools in realignment, which makes it appear vulnerable. Meanwhile, the ACC is earning nowhere near its peers, which is a factor not many people are seeing. The fact that Big 12 schools earn more from only two tiers of TV rights than the ACC does for all should explain their true position.
The Big 12 and ACC now have 2 clauses that play a factor in realignment: buyout clauses and grants of TV rights. The Big 12 Grant of Rights goes through the 2025-2026 season, with the ACC's lasting an extra year. These ensure that if a school leaves their conference before the agreement expires, the conference keeps all of their media rights, making the school unattractive for other leagues. Also, both conferences have buyout agreements for a school to leave. While the ACC now has a set fee of $50M, Big 12 schools agreed to pay the sum of their conference earnings from their last 2 years in the conference (including shares from TV rights, bowl payouts, and NCAA tournament payouts). For the Big 12, that number is currently close to $50M, but will surpass it by the end of the decade. In short, it is expensive to leave either conference.
The fact of the matter is that Texas and OU control the destinies of every Power conference; not even Notre Dame has the same amount of power to dictate how things fall for good. Wherever Texas and OU decide they want to end up, they can go, and this series has shown how things could end up for each scenario.
In 2010, they wanted to keep the entire Big 12 South together and join the Pac-10, but didn't after Texas A&M wavered and Baylor didn't get the okay from out west. These two schools decided they could not only make just as much in the Big 12, but keep their rivals with them. After Texas A&M announced it was leaving for the SEC in 2011, OU badly wanted to join the Pac-10 again, but Texas talked OU into staying. Why would either of these schools want to disband their own conference and miss out on playing their rivals when they could build their own into a stronger one?
Also, if ACC schools aren't making much in their current home, how would they add value to the Big 12? This is the reason that Florida State and Clemson were upset with the ACC a few years ago. Their in-state rivals aren't any more popular or historically better than they are, but are out-gaining them in the revenue department. The ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, but the lack of consistent football powers is hurting their pay. The ACC is a basketball-first conference, and basketball doesn't pay as well. However, trimming off some of the fat would increase the pay for everyone.
Why is it so important to eliminate the ACC when other schools are available, both easier and cheaper? Each of the Power 5 conferences earn the same initial amount from the College Football Playoff: $51.75M per year ($258.75M split 5 ways). The Orange and Sugar Bowls pay the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC $40M each per season, while the ACC gets $27.5M from the Orange Bowl. There are also bonuses for placing more teams in the CFP field and going to national championship game, but we won't figure those in. Since the Big 12 is the smallest conference with only 10 teams it makes more from the CFP and Sugar Bowl than the other 4 conferences do. Expanding to 12 would only take away that advantage. However, if the ACC was eliminated and the Big 12 could get the Orange Bowl bid (it was attached to the Big 12's predecessor, the Big Eight Conference, from 1976-1996), the conference could stand to gain money.
For this to happen, though, the Big 12 will need help. If Texas and Oklahoma make their intentions clear that they will never be options for the Big Ten and SEC in the future, there is hope those two conferences would join in to complete a mass raid of the ACC. Both the Big Ten and SEC badly want into North Carolina and Virginia for their conference networks, so perhaps a deal could be made between the 3 conferences.
With that said, the Big 12 adds Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville for certain. The remaining two spots are where things get difficult because these are 100-year decisions. Notre Dame will be greatly pursued by the Big 12 and Pac-12, and could join a conference if Independents aren't able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Miami, Pittsburgh, and Duke are the remaining ACC schools still under consideration (sorry, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse), while American schools of Cincinnati and Memphis are too.
Duke would get the Big 12 into North Carolina - a great thing for a future Big 12 Network - and bring a Top 5 basketball program into the fold. Miami would bring a national brand and more of a presence in Florida, but lacks its own stadium and can't consistently sellout the one it plays in. Pitt is similar to Miami, but offers a new state in Pennsylvania and a better basketball program. Cincinnati and Memphis have been discussed plenty throughout this series, but would both be worthy additions to a Power conference if they could find their right one.
Ultimately, I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12 for the Pac-12, where it has two permanent rivals in Southern Cal and Stanford. That leaves the Big 12 to add Pitt and Miami to get to 16, allowing the conference to boast two more big rivalry games in Pitt-WVU and Miami-FSU. IF the Big 12 somehow could go to 20 schools, Duke, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston would allow for a great conference of four 5-team divisions.
There are a few options for the schedule. The Big 12 could go East-West, playing 7 division games and playing 2 rotating opponents from the other division. The issue is that it would take 4 years to play everyone in the conference for most teams, and Iowa St wouldn't play any of it Big Eight rivals very often. Another option is to have two divisions, rotating groups of 4 with other groups so that there are 3 different formats in 6 years. The WAC tried this in the 1990s and it is not ideal, but Texas and Oklahoma could be protected in years where they aren't aligned together.
The best option would be to have 4 divisions. The only question is whether every school would have a permanent rival (or more), or if just a few current rivals would be protected. While each team having one permanent rival from each division would provide easier scheduling, it could provide imbalanced schedules on an annual basis (similar to LSU's complaint of having to play Florida every season). Only protect the most important games: Texas-OU and ISU-KSU are the only ones that come to mind as completely necessary. For most schools, that means they play every school in the conference in 2 seasons, but the 4 exceptions would only take an extra year to do so.
The idea is to allow every school equal access into each region, so, if not in the same division as them, they'll play either FSU or Miami, Georgia Tech or Clemson, West Virginia or Pitt, Louisville or Iowa St, Kansas or Kansas St, Oklahoma or Oklahoma St, TCU or Baylor, and Texas or Texas Tech. This is the most balanced way.
Finally, I get to the money side of things. Big 12 schools currently earn $20M per season. I believe that would increase after the new schools are added, moving the Big 12 to each ground with the Big Ten and SEC at $25M per season. With 4 divisions, the Big 12 leads the movement to a 4-team conference championship playoff, allowing the division winners to determine the conference's champion. My estimates are that TV rights for these 3 games could sell for at least $4M per school. Whether or not LHN is turned into the Big 12 Network or not, I could see the Big 12 earning up to $11M per school for one, which puts the total TV payout at $40M, which would be great.
If the Power 5 conferences get slimmed down to 4, the battle for the last spot will be between the ACC and Big 12. The Big 12 was the only one of the Power 5 to lose schools in realignment, which makes it appear vulnerable. Meanwhile, the ACC is earning nowhere near its peers, which is a factor not many people are seeing. The fact that Big 12 schools earn more from only two tiers of TV rights than the ACC does for all should explain their true position.
The Big 12 and ACC now have 2 clauses that play a factor in realignment: buyout clauses and grants of TV rights. The Big 12 Grant of Rights goes through the 2025-2026 season, with the ACC's lasting an extra year. These ensure that if a school leaves their conference before the agreement expires, the conference keeps all of their media rights, making the school unattractive for other leagues. Also, both conferences have buyout agreements for a school to leave. While the ACC now has a set fee of $50M, Big 12 schools agreed to pay the sum of their conference earnings from their last 2 years in the conference (including shares from TV rights, bowl payouts, and NCAA tournament payouts). For the Big 12, that number is currently close to $50M, but will surpass it by the end of the decade. In short, it is expensive to leave either conference.
The fact of the matter is that Texas and OU control the destinies of every Power conference; not even Notre Dame has the same amount of power to dictate how things fall for good. Wherever Texas and OU decide they want to end up, they can go, and this series has shown how things could end up for each scenario.
In 2010, they wanted to keep the entire Big 12 South together and join the Pac-10, but didn't after Texas A&M wavered and Baylor didn't get the okay from out west. These two schools decided they could not only make just as much in the Big 12, but keep their rivals with them. After Texas A&M announced it was leaving for the SEC in 2011, OU badly wanted to join the Pac-10 again, but Texas talked OU into staying. Why would either of these schools want to disband their own conference and miss out on playing their rivals when they could build their own into a stronger one?
Also, if ACC schools aren't making much in their current home, how would they add value to the Big 12? This is the reason that Florida State and Clemson were upset with the ACC a few years ago. Their in-state rivals aren't any more popular or historically better than they are, but are out-gaining them in the revenue department. The ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, but the lack of consistent football powers is hurting their pay. The ACC is a basketball-first conference, and basketball doesn't pay as well. However, trimming off some of the fat would increase the pay for everyone.
Why is it so important to eliminate the ACC when other schools are available, both easier and cheaper? Each of the Power 5 conferences earn the same initial amount from the College Football Playoff: $51.75M per year ($258.75M split 5 ways). The Orange and Sugar Bowls pay the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC $40M each per season, while the ACC gets $27.5M from the Orange Bowl. There are also bonuses for placing more teams in the CFP field and going to national championship game, but we won't figure those in. Since the Big 12 is the smallest conference with only 10 teams it makes more from the CFP and Sugar Bowl than the other 4 conferences do. Expanding to 12 would only take away that advantage. However, if the ACC was eliminated and the Big 12 could get the Orange Bowl bid (it was attached to the Big 12's predecessor, the Big Eight Conference, from 1976-1996), the conference could stand to gain money.
For this to happen, though, the Big 12 will need help. If Texas and Oklahoma make their intentions clear that they will never be options for the Big Ten and SEC in the future, there is hope those two conferences would join in to complete a mass raid of the ACC. Both the Big Ten and SEC badly want into North Carolina and Virginia for their conference networks, so perhaps a deal could be made between the 3 conferences.
With that said, the Big 12 adds Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville for certain. The remaining two spots are where things get difficult because these are 100-year decisions. Notre Dame will be greatly pursued by the Big 12 and Pac-12, and could join a conference if Independents aren't able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Miami, Pittsburgh, and Duke are the remaining ACC schools still under consideration (sorry, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse), while American schools of Cincinnati and Memphis are too.
Duke would get the Big 12 into North Carolina - a great thing for a future Big 12 Network - and bring a Top 5 basketball program into the fold. Miami would bring a national brand and more of a presence in Florida, but lacks its own stadium and can't consistently sellout the one it plays in. Pitt is similar to Miami, but offers a new state in Pennsylvania and a better basketball program. Cincinnati and Memphis have been discussed plenty throughout this series, but would both be worthy additions to a Power conference if they could find their right one.
Ultimately, I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12 for the Pac-12, where it has two permanent rivals in Southern Cal and Stanford. That leaves the Big 12 to add Pitt and Miami to get to 16, allowing the conference to boast two more big rivalry games in Pitt-WVU and Miami-FSU. IF the Big 12 somehow could go to 20 schools, Duke, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston would allow for a great conference of four 5-team divisions.
There are a few options for the schedule. The Big 12 could go East-West, playing 7 division games and playing 2 rotating opponents from the other division. The issue is that it would take 4 years to play everyone in the conference for most teams, and Iowa St wouldn't play any of it Big Eight rivals very often. Another option is to have two divisions, rotating groups of 4 with other groups so that there are 3 different formats in 6 years. The WAC tried this in the 1990s and it is not ideal, but Texas and Oklahoma could be protected in years where they aren't aligned together.
The best option would be to have 4 divisions. The only question is whether every school would have a permanent rival (or more), or if just a few current rivals would be protected. While each team having one permanent rival from each division would provide easier scheduling, it could provide imbalanced schedules on an annual basis (similar to LSU's complaint of having to play Florida every season). Only protect the most important games: Texas-OU and ISU-KSU are the only ones that come to mind as completely necessary. For most schools, that means they play every school in the conference in 2 seasons, but the 4 exceptions would only take an extra year to do so.
The idea is to allow every school equal access into each region, so, if not in the same division as them, they'll play either FSU or Miami, Georgia Tech or Clemson, West Virginia or Pitt, Louisville or Iowa St, Kansas or Kansas St, Oklahoma or Oklahoma St, TCU or Baylor, and Texas or Texas Tech. This is the most balanced way.
Finally, I get to the money side of things. Big 12 schools currently earn $20M per season. I believe that would increase after the new schools are added, moving the Big 12 to each ground with the Big Ten and SEC at $25M per season. With 4 divisions, the Big 12 leads the movement to a 4-team conference championship playoff, allowing the division winners to determine the conference's champion. My estimates are that TV rights for these 3 games could sell for at least $4M per school. Whether or not LHN is turned into the Big 12 Network or not, I could see the Big 12 earning up to $11M per school for one, which puts the total TV payout at $40M, which would be great.
Big 12
Northwest - Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
Northwest - Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
Southwest - Baylor, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
Northeast - Iowa St, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Southeast - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami
2. Big Ten grabs two AAU schools
The key to pulling off the raid of the ACC is getting the Big Ten and SEC involved. While the Big Ten could be interested in two SEC schools, Missouri and Vanderbilt, this is unlikely to happen in this scenario. Virginia and North Carolina don't combine for as many students as the two SEC schools, but the population of their states combine for 8 million more people than the others. This means more TV sets, which is crucial for the Big Ten Network's footprint. These two schools also add value in basketball.
The toughest task involved with breaking up the ACC is splitting up the North Carolina schools. Honestly, realignment down to 4 power conferences will break up one of two blocks of 4 schools: North Carolina, composed of UNC, North Carolina St, Duke, and Wake Forest; or Texas, comprised of Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU. Most conferences want a Texas school to add that state to its recruiting and TV footprints, but the academic prowess of the ACC schools are what make them desirable to the Big Ten. While the Texas schools are generally considered to have the better overall athletic programs, only Texas has high-quality academics.
Splitting up North Carolina from Duke and Virginia from Virginia Tech may be difficult in theory. After all, the North Carolina schools have been together for a long time, while getting the Virginia schools in the same conference took a lot of work in the previous decade. Also, the heart of the ACC is in North Carolina, which is why many believe the ACC is a basketball-first conference. However, if the Big 12 sways the schools it is interested in, and the Big Ten uses Boston College and Syracuse (both of whom would gladly accept invitations from the Big Ten) as leverage, UNC and UVA may have to give in. I actually believe UVA is the most likely to leave, with its rival Maryland having done the same within the past few years and the possibility for a long-term scheduling agreement with in-state rival Virginia Tech. If UVA leaves, UNC will likely see the writing on the wall and come too. Otherwise, UNC risks being left out of a power conference, and I can't see the school placing itself in that position.
One thing that few have seen is that Big 12 has leverage to get the Big Ten on its side. Sure, Texas and Oklahoma can break the Big 12 up and go to whichever conference they want -- that is the point of this series. However, as previously seen in Parts 2, 4, and 5, if the Big Ten gambles on targeting these two schools, if spurned, it could be left with far less desirable options to choose from to get to 16. Any additions other than Texas, OU, Kansas, Missouri, Vanderbilt, UNC, or Virginia would be considered a failure for the Big Ten, and Texas and OU hold the cards in their hands. Iowa St is an AAU school that doesn't expand the Big Ten footprint. West Virginia, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and the remaining Texas schools just don't move the dial. If Texas and OU make their intentions clear: expand their own conference or else leave and not even consider joining the Big Ten, the Big Ten might have to take the the "sure thing" of joining in on the ACC raid. Put shortly, the Big Ten is the most powerful brand in college athletics, but the Big 12 has the leverage here and must use it if it wants to stay alive in the era of only 4 power conferences.
The additions of UNC and UVA bring a couple options to the Big Ten's alignment. For 2 divisions, East-West is easy to align. For the more progressive 4 division model, there are two scenarios. Ohio St, Michigan, MSU, and PSU together in the Midwest, the 4 Indiana and Illinois schools together in the Central, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska out West is one option. The problem is that the Midwest contains the 4 biggest brands, while the Central is historically far weaker. Another option is to align the Michigan schools in the North with Minnesota and Wisconsin, place Ohio St and Penn St with the Indiana schools in the South, and allow the Illinois schools to join Nebraska and Iowa. This creates more competitive divisions, but travel isn't quite as good. I believe the Big Ten would choose the latter option.
The toughest task involved with breaking up the ACC is splitting up the North Carolina schools. Honestly, realignment down to 4 power conferences will break up one of two blocks of 4 schools: North Carolina, composed of UNC, North Carolina St, Duke, and Wake Forest; or Texas, comprised of Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU. Most conferences want a Texas school to add that state to its recruiting and TV footprints, but the academic prowess of the ACC schools are what make them desirable to the Big Ten. While the Texas schools are generally considered to have the better overall athletic programs, only Texas has high-quality academics.
Splitting up North Carolina from Duke and Virginia from Virginia Tech may be difficult in theory. After all, the North Carolina schools have been together for a long time, while getting the Virginia schools in the same conference took a lot of work in the previous decade. Also, the heart of the ACC is in North Carolina, which is why many believe the ACC is a basketball-first conference. However, if the Big 12 sways the schools it is interested in, and the Big Ten uses Boston College and Syracuse (both of whom would gladly accept invitations from the Big Ten) as leverage, UNC and UVA may have to give in. I actually believe UVA is the most likely to leave, with its rival Maryland having done the same within the past few years and the possibility for a long-term scheduling agreement with in-state rival Virginia Tech. If UVA leaves, UNC will likely see the writing on the wall and come too. Otherwise, UNC risks being left out of a power conference, and I can't see the school placing itself in that position.
One thing that few have seen is that Big 12 has leverage to get the Big Ten on its side. Sure, Texas and Oklahoma can break the Big 12 up and go to whichever conference they want -- that is the point of this series. However, as previously seen in Parts 2, 4, and 5, if the Big Ten gambles on targeting these two schools, if spurned, it could be left with far less desirable options to choose from to get to 16. Any additions other than Texas, OU, Kansas, Missouri, Vanderbilt, UNC, or Virginia would be considered a failure for the Big Ten, and Texas and OU hold the cards in their hands. Iowa St is an AAU school that doesn't expand the Big Ten footprint. West Virginia, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and the remaining Texas schools just don't move the dial. If Texas and OU make their intentions clear: expand their own conference or else leave and not even consider joining the Big Ten, the Big Ten might have to take the the "sure thing" of joining in on the ACC raid. Put shortly, the Big Ten is the most powerful brand in college athletics, but the Big 12 has the leverage here and must use it if it wants to stay alive in the era of only 4 power conferences.
The additions of UNC and UVA bring a couple options to the Big Ten's alignment. For 2 divisions, East-West is easy to align. For the more progressive 4 division model, there are two scenarios. Ohio St, Michigan, MSU, and PSU together in the Midwest, the 4 Indiana and Illinois schools together in the Central, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska out West is one option. The problem is that the Midwest contains the 4 biggest brands, while the Central is historically far weaker. Another option is to align the Michigan schools in the North with Minnesota and Wisconsin, place Ohio St and Penn St with the Indiana schools in the South, and allow the Illinois schools to join Nebraska and Iowa. This creates more competitive divisions, but travel isn't quite as good. I believe the Big Ten would choose the latter option.
Big Ten
West - Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern
North - Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South - Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
North - Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South - Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
East - Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
3. The SEC fills in the blanks
Look up a map of the SEC and you'll immediately notice a large gap on the eastern coast. It is no secret that the SEC also wants into North Carolina and Virginia to not only fill in that gap, but expand the footprint of the SEC Network into that large area of population. While UNC and UVA are better fits for the Big Ten, there are two SEC-esque schools located in those states: North Carolina St and Virginia Tech. With better football programs and more students than their respective in-state rivals, the SEC would hit the jackpot with these additions.
Gaining leverage on the SEC might prove to be fairly easy as well. While the SEC will almost always be assured solid schools to choose from if the Big 12 disbands, there are also less desirable options than VT and UNC. The SEC could see Missouri and possibly even Vanderbilt leave or could miss out on both OU and KU. West Virginia would always be there for the taking, but other options such as Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St don't offer the TV footprints of the eastern schools. Like the Big Ten, the SEC could not agree to this raid and gamble on OU and KU, but the result could leave it looking foolish. The safe route is actually one of the best expansion options regardless of which conference is dissolved, so the league would be wise to jump on this.
Aligning into divisions would also be easy in this conference, whether at 2 or 4. Missouri could shift to the West to allow VT an NCSU in the East for 2 divisions. For 4, split these 2 into sensible groups of 4.
Gaining leverage on the SEC might prove to be fairly easy as well. While the SEC will almost always be assured solid schools to choose from if the Big 12 disbands, there are also less desirable options than VT and UNC. The SEC could see Missouri and possibly even Vanderbilt leave or could miss out on both OU and KU. West Virginia would always be there for the taking, but other options such as Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St don't offer the TV footprints of the eastern schools. Like the Big Ten, the SEC could not agree to this raid and gamble on OU and KU, but the result could leave it looking foolish. The safe route is actually one of the best expansion options regardless of which conference is dissolved, so the league would be wise to jump on this.
Aligning into divisions would also be easy in this conference, whether at 2 or 4. Missouri could shift to the West to allow VT an NCSU in the East for 2 divisions. For 4, split these 2 into sensible groups of 4.
SEC
West - Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
South - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St
North - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St
North - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
East - Florida, Georgia, North Carolina St, South Carolina
4. The Pac-12 cleans up
The Pac-12 has the least to gain by the Big 12 staying together. Its location on the west coast means there aren't as many viable expansion options if the Big 12 stays intact. The Pac-12 could certainly stay put at 12, but that is no fun, so I will only discuss its expansion options.
If the Pac-12 wants teams currently in a power conference, it has to look at ACC schools. Yes, the only options are 3 time zones away on the opposite coast. Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, and Notre Dame are what is leftover. All five are private schools, but Notre Dame and Boston College are Catholic schools. Since the Pac-12 doesn't have any religious schools, this could pose a problem, but does anyone really see the Pac-12 turning down Notre Dame.
Remember, I have Notre Dame choosing to be different to recruit nationally, which is why they don't consider the Big Ten as a viable option. The SEC lacks in academics, which blocks that conference from contention. The only two options for Notre Dame to join a conference are Big 12 and Pac-12, but the better academics and standing rivalries out west are why I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12. So ND is the first school added.
Wake Forest has stated it will drop football if players are paid; that could happen in the near future. This school arguably brings the least to the ACC right now, so I could see this school being left out. The sad thing is that WF probably wouldn't mind. That means Duke, BC, and Syracuse are the current Power 5 options to join Notre Dame in the Pac-12. While the travel would be outrageous, things might not be so bad. Notre would truly maintain playing nationally - all 4 time zones! - while the Pac-12 would gain the largest college brand in the world, the New York, Boston, and North Carolina TV markets (huge for the Pac-12 Networks), and gain more exposure on the east coast. Also, these schools, while only Duke is AAU, are not slouches on the academic side, something valued by the Pac-12.
Now, with Notre Dame already in the fold, what are some closer options? BYU is the most notable. It is the worldwide brand representing Mormans and is the only non-Power school to win a national championship in football in the modern era. BYU's football and basketball programs are perennially good. The only problems are the religious make-up of the school, the Pac-12's current presence in Utah, and no play or travel on Sundays. Despite all of that, BYU would make an excellent pair to ND's addition.
To get to 16 using this route, there are just a few remaining options left: Cincinnati, Houston, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, and Boise St. Cincinnati would be a great travel partner for Notre Dame, has a very large enrollment, and a quality overall athletic program. Houston also has a large enrollment, new athletic stadia, and a thriving football program, located in one of the top media markets. New Mexico is an underrated school, as it has a great basketball program and a ton of potential in football. While not the biggest market, the state population of New Mexico is higher than both Nebraska and West Virginia and would certainly add to the Pac-12. Nevada and UNLV are interesting cases, as the former is the higher ranked in academics and has a better football history, while the latter is located in the better market and has a very notable basketball program. Also, the state of Nevada has a larger population than New Mexico. Finally, Boise St needs to be mentioned. The football program became a national brand over the course of the 2000s, but the academic profile and other sports in the athletic program offer very little. The shine is beginning to wear off of this school, and it is simply not a viable option without its shine.
So the Pac-16's expansion options are:
-Notre Dame, Duke, Boston College, and Syracuse
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and New Mexico
-Notre Dame, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV
Each option offers its own form of potential, but the ACC schools will add more exposure than the rest. The second option listed would bring more from an athletic standpoint, and it is sad to see those schools left out, but this conference will probably choose the others.
If the Pac-12 wants teams currently in a power conference, it has to look at ACC schools. Yes, the only options are 3 time zones away on the opposite coast. Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, and Notre Dame are what is leftover. All five are private schools, but Notre Dame and Boston College are Catholic schools. Since the Pac-12 doesn't have any religious schools, this could pose a problem, but does anyone really see the Pac-12 turning down Notre Dame.
Remember, I have Notre Dame choosing to be different to recruit nationally, which is why they don't consider the Big Ten as a viable option. The SEC lacks in academics, which blocks that conference from contention. The only two options for Notre Dame to join a conference are Big 12 and Pac-12, but the better academics and standing rivalries out west are why I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12. So ND is the first school added.
Wake Forest has stated it will drop football if players are paid; that could happen in the near future. This school arguably brings the least to the ACC right now, so I could see this school being left out. The sad thing is that WF probably wouldn't mind. That means Duke, BC, and Syracuse are the current Power 5 options to join Notre Dame in the Pac-12. While the travel would be outrageous, things might not be so bad. Notre would truly maintain playing nationally - all 4 time zones! - while the Pac-12 would gain the largest college brand in the world, the New York, Boston, and North Carolina TV markets (huge for the Pac-12 Networks), and gain more exposure on the east coast. Also, these schools, while only Duke is AAU, are not slouches on the academic side, something valued by the Pac-12.
Now, with Notre Dame already in the fold, what are some closer options? BYU is the most notable. It is the worldwide brand representing Mormans and is the only non-Power school to win a national championship in football in the modern era. BYU's football and basketball programs are perennially good. The only problems are the religious make-up of the school, the Pac-12's current presence in Utah, and no play or travel on Sundays. Despite all of that, BYU would make an excellent pair to ND's addition.
To get to 16 using this route, there are just a few remaining options left: Cincinnati, Houston, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, and Boise St. Cincinnati would be a great travel partner for Notre Dame, has a very large enrollment, and a quality overall athletic program. Houston also has a large enrollment, new athletic stadia, and a thriving football program, located in one of the top media markets. New Mexico is an underrated school, as it has a great basketball program and a ton of potential in football. While not the biggest market, the state population of New Mexico is higher than both Nebraska and West Virginia and would certainly add to the Pac-12. Nevada and UNLV are interesting cases, as the former is the higher ranked in academics and has a better football history, while the latter is located in the better market and has a very notable basketball program. Also, the state of Nevada has a larger population than New Mexico. Finally, Boise St needs to be mentioned. The football program became a national brand over the course of the 2000s, but the academic profile and other sports in the athletic program offer very little. The shine is beginning to wear off of this school, and it is simply not a viable option without its shine.
So the Pac-16's expansion options are:
-Notre Dame, Duke, Boston College, and Syracuse
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and New Mexico
-Notre Dame, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV
Each option offers its own form of potential, but the ACC schools will add more exposure than the rest. The second option listed would bring more from an athletic standpoint, and it is sad to see those schools left out, but this conference will probably choose the others.
Pac-16
Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St
Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA
Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah
East - Boston College, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse
What could a Texas schedule look like?
Division Games - 3 - Played every season.
1. Baylor (home in odd years)
2. TCU (home in even years)
3. Texas Tech (home in odd years)
Inter-division Games - 6
4. Oklahoma (every season, at Cotton Bowl Stadium)
5. Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St (rotating)
6. Iowa St (even) or Louisville (odd)
7. Pittsburgh (even) or West Virginia (odd)
8. Georgia Tech (even) or Clemson (odd)
9. Florida St (even) or Miami (odd)
Out-of-Conference Games - 3
10. Texas A&M (home in even years)
11-12. Varying
Overview
This would be such a wonderful option for Texas and OU. Using the leverage they hold over both the Big Ten and SEC, they are able to keep their conference intact and add quality programs to it. No current rivalries are lost, while others with high profiles are brought in.
While not landing Notre Dame is a slight blow, Notre Dame is more likely to get the remaining ACC schools to join the Pac-16 than Pitt or Miami would be able to pull off. This is very important because if Wake Forest is the lone ACC school without a new Power 4 home, it is unlikely to sue for exit fees and the grant of rights, easing the entire process.
As mentioned, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston are worthy programs, so those 3 being left out of the new Power 4 would be disappointing. However, the priority for Texas and OU is to do what is best for themselves.
Finally, there are a whole host of out-of-conference rivalries that the Big 12 could have. Texas-Texas A&M, Texas-Arkansas, Oklahoma-Nebraska, Kansas-Missouri, and West Virginia-Maryland are rivalries we could see current schools look to bring back. However, Florida St-Florida, Clemson-South Carolina, Georgia Tech-Georgia, Pitt-Penn St, and Louisville-Kentucky would be welcomed with open arms. New conference rivalries such as FSU-Clemson, FSU-Miami, Pitt-WVU, and Pitt-Louisville would be exciting and increase the conference's profile.
Ultimately, Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest of the Big 12 would benefit by pulling this move off.
While not landing Notre Dame is a slight blow, Notre Dame is more likely to get the remaining ACC schools to join the Pac-16 than Pitt or Miami would be able to pull off. This is very important because if Wake Forest is the lone ACC school without a new Power 4 home, it is unlikely to sue for exit fees and the grant of rights, easing the entire process.
As mentioned, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston are worthy programs, so those 3 being left out of the new Power 4 would be disappointing. However, the priority for Texas and OU is to do what is best for themselves.
Finally, there are a whole host of out-of-conference rivalries that the Big 12 could have. Texas-Texas A&M, Texas-Arkansas, Oklahoma-Nebraska, Kansas-Missouri, and West Virginia-Maryland are rivalries we could see current schools look to bring back. However, Florida St-Florida, Clemson-South Carolina, Georgia Tech-Georgia, Pitt-Penn St, and Louisville-Kentucky would be welcomed with open arms. New conference rivalries such as FSU-Clemson, FSU-Miami, Pitt-WVU, and Pitt-Louisville would be exciting and increase the conference's profile.
Ultimately, Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest of the Big 12 would benefit by pulling this move off.
I think this is a very thoughtful analysis for the Big 12, which is definitely in need of expansion. Glad I discovered your blog. The only thing that truly interests me in your projected realignment at the moment is the addition of Pitt and Louisville (being a WVU fan/alumni, I show my bias). As far as I am concerned, the Big 12 was very short-sighted in not inviting them when WVU and TCU were added. Louisville desparately wanted in, and I'm sure that Pitt could have been persuaded at that time as well, especially with the dissolution of the Big East occurring at the same time. I look forward to reading more of your stuff, Ricky.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the response!
DeleteI agree the Big 12 should have added more Big East schools back in 2011-12. For the future, Florida St and Clemson are key targets, because if they decide they want out, Louisville, Pitt and the other options become available.
I should have a few more realignment-related posts coming soon, but urge you to sift through the archives in the meantime. Weighing Realignment Options and Weighing Scheduling options will show you that we don't necessarily have to expand right now if we do a few things correctly.
Thanks again,
-rtXC1