Big 12: Weighing Scheduling Options

Recently, I discussed alignment options for the Big 12. After weighing the options, the potential revenues to be earned support adding a conference championship game. Options for competitiveness support dropping from 9 conference games to either 7 or 8. In my previous post, I briefly mention how the TV networks, ESPN and FOX, would need to approve any move that alters the number of conference games. My suggestion is for the Big 12 to attempt to replace the loss of conference games with quality games outside the conference.

The Current Format

The Big 12 now has a scheduling agreement among its schools, ensuring that every school schedules at least one team from a Power 5 conference or an FBS Independent. The result is each school playing at least 10 Power 5 (P5) opponents each season. With the Big 12's 9-game slate, there are 45 total conference games.

Outside of conference (OOC), each school can only play 3 games. Of these 3, 1 must be a P5 opponent, resulting in an average of 5 home P5 games for the conference each season.

Currently, schools in the Big 12 average 2 home games of their 3 OOC each year, so that results in an average of 1.5 OOC home games that aren't in the P5.

What I will term "Total Network games" are any home game the Big 12 has; these are what the conference sells to ESPN and FOX each year. There are 65 Network games each season when you consider 45 Big 12 conference games, 5 P5 home games OOC, and 15 non-P5 home games OOC. Of those, 50 total are against Power 5 schools, which I will term "Quality Network games."

8 Conference Games + 2 Power 5 Out-of-Conference

For an 8-game conference schedule, each school would need to schedule 2 P5 schools OOC to maintain 10 P5 opponents each season. This results in only 40 Big 12 conference games, but 20 vs the P5 and 20 vs non-P5 in OOC. When figuring Total Network games, that yields a total of 65. Quality Network games would still stand at 50.

Would the networks buy this logic? I am not sure. But it checks out as long as every school is playing at least two Power 5 schools each season.

7 Conference Games + 2 Power 5 Out-of-Conference

For a 7-game conference slate, it could prove difficult for each team to find 3 P5 schools to play outside of the Big 12. So what would happen if only 2 P5 opponents were required? First, there would be only 35 Big 12 conference games. Outside of conference, there would still be 20 P5 games, but an increase to 30 non-P5 games. Total Network inventory would be 35 Big 12, 10 home P5, and an average of 22.5 non-P5 for a total of 67.5. Of the 67.5, only 45 would count as Quality Network games, resulting in the TV networks losing a guarantee of 5 quality games each season.

Remember, these figures are what is guaranteed, the floor, so Big 12 schools could potentially play more P5 OOC. I'm not sure if the networks would agree to this, but perhaps a ban on FCS opponents (which should happen anyway) would help the Big 12's case. Also, maybe the networks could be put in charge of scheduling 5 games of their choice each season, with quality Group of Five (Go5) teams such as Boise St, Cincinnati, and Houston being in the running to fill the slots.

7 Conference Games + 3 Power 5 Out-of-Conference

If the networks don't agree to a guarantee of only 45 quality games per year, then the Big 12 could try its hand at scheduling 3 P5 each season OOC. This would result in 30 games vs P5 and 20 vs non-P5 OOC. Total Network inventory would be at 65 games, but Quality Network inventory would move up to 50.

As previously stated, with the Big Ten and Pac-12 playing 9-game schedules and the ACC and SEC playing 8-game schedules, it would be tough for the Big 12 Conference to find 30 Power 5 opponents outside the conference. If it could be pulled off, though, it would be ideal.

Recap:

My suggestion is for the Big 12 to attempt to get down to the 7-game conference schedule. It would work great with having 2 divisions of 5 teams each. Scheduling would be as follows: 4 intra-division games, 2 rotating inter-division games, and 1 permanent inter-division rival. Outside the conference, the 5 games would be filled with at least 2 Power 5 opponents, with a suggestion of 3, if possible.

The Big 12 would put itself at a huge advantage compared to the other 4 power conferences when it comes to overall records and what it takes to be bowl eligible, while also offering incentive for the return of high-profile rivalries. Texas could attempt to play Arkansas and Texas A&M every season. Oklahoma could try to make Nebraska a permanent game again. West Virginia could aim for always having two of the following on the schedule: Pitt, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. Perhaps Kansas would be interested in restoring the Border War with Missouri. Even TCU could look to play former Mountain West rivals BYU and Utah (and Boise St?) on a semi-regular basis.

The Big 12 badly wants the extra revenues of a conference championship game. But expanding to 12 or adding one at the end of a round robin schedule are just not viable options. The best answer for the Big 12, whether other conferences like it or not (they won't), is to do this. The recent legislation made this possible, so it is time for the Big 12 to take advantage of that.