Part 1 -- Join the Pac-12
1. Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech join the Pac-12 Conference
The easiest place to move, as it almost happened in both 2010 and 2011, is the Pac-12, turning it into the Pac-16. Two Texas and two Oklahoma schools add to the already-balanced nature of the Pac-12. This is considered a home run for the conference, while keeping regional rivalries alive for the former Big 12 schools. Also, expect an agreement that ensures these Central Time Zone schools will not be forced to play late games on the Pacific coast, or that there will at least be a cap on how many take place.
Two new regional conference networks are created, Pac-16 Texas and Pac-16 Oklahoma, while the Pac-16 Network also becomes available in these states. Texas' Longhorn Network would have to go, but Texas would have to buyout the contract for this to happen. This could throw a wrench in the plan.
TV revenues are currently set to average $21M per year for each Pac-12 school over the life of the contract, plus anything the Pac-12 Networks bring in. The Networks have annually paid each school between $1M-$1.5M, but that number should grow as time goes on, and certainly after expansion into Texas and Oklahoma. Creating a 4-team championship tournament in football would allow for an extra $1M-$2M per school. Also, with the dissolution of the Big 12, College Football Playoff money would be divided among 4 Power conferences, not 5. Total revenue from the CFP and Rose Bowl would be just south of $10M per school. So the Pac-16 would bring in an average of at least $33M per school in revenues from TV and major bowl games, with the number to go up after the Networks get a better footing.
For basketball and other Olympic sports, the ideal format would be 4 divisions. Since 4 divisions aren't yet allowed in football, the Pac-16 could attempt to change the rules or simply merge 4 down to 2 for football only.
Pac-12
Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St
Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA
Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah
Central - Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech
2. Kansas and Missouri find a home together
Kansas and Missouri are historic rivals, one of the many that have gone to the wayside due to realignment. If the Big 12 breaks up, chances are these two will get back on the same page. And they have 2 excellent choices ahead of them in the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten requires that its schools are a part of a group of research institutions called the AAU, which essentially means these are quality schools (the exception is Nebraska, which got kicked out after joining the Big Ten). If the Big 12 breaks up, the only practical AAU options on the market will be Kansas, Iowa St, and Texas of the Big 12, along with Missouri and Vanderbilt of the SEC. Since Texas will be off the board, Vanderbilt is a founding member of the SEC, and Iowa is a member of the Big Ten, the two most logical options are Kansas and Missouri.
Missouri has wanted to join the Big Ten since the early 1990s, but settled for the SEC in 2011 after continued instability in the Big 12 put the school at risk of being left out of the fold someday. The SEC, however, has been great for the Tigers. The football program has won 2 division titles in its first 4 seasons and a new rivalry has been created with neighboring Arkansas. Not only does Missouri have ties to Texas recruiting, but also Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana as well. A con of joining the Big Ten is that would all go away, as Nebraska has certainly learned. But joining the Big Ten was the long-term goal, and that conference will be pressing hard for these two schools. Since the Big Ten has offered the most amount of TV money for some time now, and will continue to, I truly believe it will find a way to make this happen.
BTN, the Big Ten's Network, is already available nationwide, but it will for certain be available in every Kansas and Missouri home.
Dividing the Big Ten would not be as easy as the Pac-16. 4 divisions could be used for basketball and other sports, or there could be no divisions. Football would require either 2 or 4 divisions, with 2 being easy to divide (East and West), and 4 being a bit more challenging.
Big Ten
West - Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska
Central - Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Midwest - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue
East - Maryland, Ohio, Penn St, Rutgers
3. The SEC gets its pick
The SEC is not used to losing schools, with Tulane being the last to leave in 1966. The loss of Missouri, and its Kansas City and St. Louis markets, would hurt the footprint of the SEC Network, so they would need to add more schools. The options at hand would be West Virginia, Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, and TCU of the Big 12, along with Cincinnati and Temple of the American.
Cincinnati is a very intriguing school for the SEC, as it would gain a footprint of Ohio for the SEC Network, and the fact that this school has been consistently good in both football and basketball, albeit in a weaker conference. It should be noted than Cincy's fan base is not a sure thing, but there are 43,000 students and playing in the SEC would provide plenty of reason to travel and show up to games. The stadium seats only 40,000, but expansion and using the Bengals' stadium (65,000) is not out of the question. Cincinnati could very well be the next Louisville if given the right platform, and joining the SEC would be that platform.
Temple is most known for getting kicked out of the Big East in 2005 because its football program was so bad. But the program is making a comeback now that it is in the American. The school holds similar potential to Cincy in that it just needs a platform to really explode. The student enrollment is 38,000, and its stadium, also home to the Philadelphia Eagles, seats 68,000. The basketball program has been decent, not great, but the city and state are both considered a basketball hotbed, which could really help out the SEC in that regard. Once again, getting the SEC Network in a state like this would be huge for the conference. Attendance issues in football could ultimately be what keeps Temple out of the running, but the fans do show up when big named teams come to town.
Baylor and TCU wouldn't have a chance to join, but ISU, KSU, and WVU certainly are compelling options as they have the most SEC-like fan bases of any Big 12 schools, at respective enrollments of 36,000, 25,000, and 30,000 students. These fans are dedicated and show up despite any poor on-field performance. ISU and WVU both have stadia that seat over 60,000, while KSU's seats 50,000. Also, these three Big 12 schools are known for their strong basketball programs, which the SEC is in dire need of.
West Virginia will obviously be Missouri's replacement, as the football program with the largest brand name and an entire state worth of fans, but the next two spots are where the questions lie. The conference could decide to play it safe and add established Power schools, or take a risk by adding a couple on-the-cusp schools. If the two Big 12 schools aren't chosen, then the other 8 could face serious lawsuits. Ultimately, I think the SEC sticks with ISU and KSU.
The SEC Network gains ground in 3 new states, and the revenues of these 3 schools increase.
Dividing the SEC is the most difficult yet. I cannot see 4 divisions being a thing in basketball, but it could happen in football. Like the other conferences, if only 2 divisions are in the cards, then merging the 4 divisions I give into 2 is simple.
SEC
West - Arkansas, Kansas St, LSU, Texas A&M
Central - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St
North - Iowa St, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia
4. The ACC happily takes the scraps
Ever since the ACC announced it was adding Pitt and Syracuse to get to 14 schools, and especially after Maryland left and was replaced with Louisville, the common thought is that the conference may as well just go to 16. Cincinnati and UConn both were in the same conference as those 3 schools for the some time, have decent markets, and have great basketball programs. Since the ACC is the most basketball-first conference in the Power 5, those two schools make a ton of sense. But TCU and Baylor have to be considered as well.
TCU and Baylor are two Texas schools that would certainly add a lot of value to the ACC. TCU was kicked out of the Power conferences in 1996 and clawed its way back to the Big 12 in 2012, going through the WAC, C-USA, and Mountain West along the way. The football program is now widely recognized, while basketball has been steadily improving. Despite a student population of only 10,000, TCU sits in the football (and basketball) hotbed of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and has completely rebuild both its 45,000-seat stadium and its arena. Baylor has always been a member of a power conference, but was a doormat until the late 2000s when its basketball started taking off and its football began following. Baylor is now a visible brand and known football and basketball power. It enrollment is small at 16,000, but its brand new 45,000-seat stadium averages 46,000 fans per game over the course of its first two seasons. Adding these schools and gaining a footing in Texas would be great for ACC recruiting, and might just be the final stepping stone for the long-rumored ACC Network to become a reality.
The ACC currently covers the most amount of TV markets of all the conferences, and adding Texas markets would make things even better. ESPN would finally have a good reason to go forward with the ACC Network, and adding revenues to all 17 schools in this conference, including non-football-member Notre Dame.
No divisions would be needed for the 17-team league in non-football sports, but 2 or 4 would work well in football.
ACC
West - Baylor, Louisville, Pittsburgh, TCU
North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest
South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami
What could a Texas schedule look like?
Division Games - 3 - Played every season.
1. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)
2. Oklahoma St (home in odd years)
3. Texas Tech (home in even years)
Inter-division Games - 6 - Played every other season.
4. Washington (even) or Washington St (odd)
5. Oregon St (even) or Oregon (odd)
6. Cal (even) or Stanford (odd)
7. Southern Cal (even) or UCLA (odd)
8. Arizona (even) or Arizona St (odd)
9. Colorado (even) or Utah (odd)
Out-of-Conference Games - 3
10. Texas A&M (?)
11-12. Varying
Overview
This would be great for every Big 12 school, as they all find new homes within the Power 5. It is disappointing for schools like Cincinnati, Houston, BYU, Boise St, or any other in the Group of 5 conferences, and even more so now that there are only 4 Power conferences with a 4-team playoff. Perhaps this sparks the break away for a third football subdivision in Division 1, allowing the Group of 5 to have their own playoff.
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