Texas Realignment Options - Part 7

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 7 -- Recap

Over the past 6 entries, I have discussed every realignment option for the Texas Longhorns, and the repercussions each would bring.  But which one is best? There are a few categories I'll use to determine this: Academics, Revenues, Rivalries, and Travel.

Academics

1. Big Ten
2. Pac-16
T-3. ACC
T-3. Independent
5. Big 12
6. SEC

The Big Ten, with its AAU guidelines, is clearly the best academic conference. After it is either the Pac-16, which boasts great universities all along the coast and in Arizona and Colorado. The ACC and Independent (as a part of the ACC) follow, as Notre Dame, Pitt, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Duke are all great schools. Next is the Big 12, which would have Kansas, Iowa St, Georgia Tech, and Pitt as the notable academic institutions. Last is the SEC, where Florida, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Texas A&M just aren't enough to counter just how bad some schools are in the heart of the conference.

Revenues

T-1. Big 12
T-1. Big Ten
T-1. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Independent
6. ACC

For revenues, I will use information I know. The Big Ten has long been the leader, but the SEC has recently caught up. The Big 12 is and will likely stay in 3rd place. However, Texas' Longhorn Network contract boosts the option of the Big 12 up to number 1. While Texas brings in more TV revenue than any of the other conferences, it is possible they get close or catch up, which is why I'll let this one be a tie. The Pac-12 Networks' struggles are holding it back, as it earns similar guaranteed pay as the Big 12 currently does, and would only add to that if Texas came over. As an Independent, Texas could keep its place at the top in revenues, but it could also not. Since this is hard to project, I place Independence behind "sure things' of the top 4 conferences. The ACC is currently so far behind that it doesn't seem likely it will catch up to what the others can offer.

Rivalries

1. Independent
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Big Ten
6. ACC

While obligations with the ACC might prevent Texas from scheduling every local school every single season, Texas would still be able to keep its top rivalries and gain back lost ones as an Independent. The Big 12 provides Texas a chance to play 6 local schools every season (if A&M is put back on the schedule), more than any other conference would allow. The SEC allows Texas to play it's 3 biggest rivals in conference play. The Pac-16 keeps minor rivals, such as Texas Tech and Oklahoma St, to go along with major rivals like Oklahoma and A&M (out of conference). The Big Ten is slightly better than the ACC because Texas would keep OU in conference play, realign with the much-hated Nebraska, and get to play A&M, Arkansas, or Tech outside of Big Ten play. The ACC offers Texas a chance to play Notre Dame every season. However, it would be difficult for Texas to keep more than 1 regional rivalry.

Travel

1. Independent
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Big Ten
6. ACC

Independence allows Texas the ability to create its own schedule outside of its 4 ACC opponents. Those 2 away games every season aren't bad, while Texas can put the rest together. Not bad at all. Travel in the Big 12 would be great to the schools both near and far, as there are 8 schools either in the state or along the I-35 corridor and the remaining 7 wouldn't be every year occurrences (2 trips per year). The SEC would also be pretty good, with OU, Arkansas, and LSU close by. The other schools are a bit further away, but most aren't much further than Iowa St would be. The Pac-16 would provide a perfect balance of travel, complete with beautiful destinations. Annual trips to the Northeast, California, and the Mountain Time Zone aren't too bad, but Tech, OU, and OSU keeps travel close too.  The Big Ten beats out the ACC thanks to having OU and 6 other schools in the Central Time Zone in the division. The ACC travel might not be as far as the Pac-16's, but there are simply no close games, with Georgia Tech and Louisville being closest to Austin.

Overall Average

1. Independent (35 points)
2. Big 12 (34 points)
3. Big Ten (30 points)
T-4. SEC (28 points)
T-4. Pac-16 (28 points)
6. ACC (13 points)

The scale is 2 points for 6th place and 12 points for 1st place, splitting the difference for ties. The conferences are then ranked by their points totals. I believe each of these 4 categories provide the most important aspects to look at. Others such as added recruiting footprint and media visibility are important too, but I wouldn't place their value as high as these 4. Plus, there isn't much difference in recruiting turf, outside of the Big Ten, and only the Pac-16 is on the west coast for poor visibility.

Actually, I personally do not care about academic reputation. Removing that criteria, the rankings would be as follows:
1. Big 12 (30 points)
2. Independent (28 points)
3. SEC (26 points)
T-4. Pac-16 (18 points)
T-4. Big Ten (18 points)
6. ACC (6 points)

Those rankings closely reflect my personal choices. I think keeping the Big 12 together should be the goal and have laid out the perfect scheme to do so. The SEC is my second favorite because it allows Texas to compete head-to-head with its 3 biggest rivals and has nice travel. The Pac-16 is the only other conference I would consider moving to, as the teams Texas would play are interesting. The Big Ten and ACC would isolate Texas too much, and it would be hard to maintain a grasp on the state by not playing local schools regularly. Independence is a wild card. The revenues are unknown at this point and it could hurt Texas' chances at making the College Football Playoff when there are only 4 power conferences. On the flip side, the schedule would allow Texas to play interesting games every single week and possibly keep LHN.

What do you guys think?

Texas Realignment Options - Part 6

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 6 -- Expand the Big 12

1. Texas and Oklahoma keep everyone together

Big 12 schools currently earn the 4th-most from the top two tiers of TV rights, coming in behind the Big Ten (rumored to be at least $25M), SEC ($25M), and Pac-12 ($21M). However, the Pac-12 only makes more because of its conference championship game, something the Big 12 doesn't have yet, but could, and would add at least $2M to each school. Meanwhile, coming in a distant 5th is the ACC, which averages only $18M per school for all TV rights.

If the Power 5 conferences get slimmed down to 4, the battle for the last spot will be between the ACC and Big 12. The Big 12 was the only one of the Power 5 to lose schools in realignment, which makes it appear vulnerable. Meanwhile, the ACC is earning nowhere near its peers, which is a factor not many people are seeing. The fact that Big 12 schools earn more from only two tiers of TV rights than the ACC does for all should explain their true position.

The Big 12 and ACC now have 2 clauses that play a factor in realignment: buyout clauses and grants of TV rights. The Big 12 Grant of Rights goes through the 2025-2026 season, with the ACC's lasting an extra year. These ensure that if a school leaves their conference before the agreement expires, the conference keeps all of their media rights, making the school unattractive for other leagues. Also, both conferences have buyout agreements for a school to leave. While the ACC now has a set fee of $50M, Big 12 schools agreed to pay the sum of their conference earnings from their last 2 years in the conference (including shares from TV rights, bowl payouts, and NCAA tournament payouts). For the Big 12, that number is currently close to $50M, but will surpass it by the end of the decade. In short, it is expensive to leave either conference.

The fact of the matter is that Texas and OU control the destinies of every Power conference; not even Notre Dame has the same amount of power to dictate how things fall for good. Wherever Texas and OU decide they want to end up, they can go, and this series has shown how things could end up for each scenario.

In 2010, they wanted to keep the entire Big 12 South together and join the Pac-10, but didn't after Texas A&M wavered and Baylor didn't get the okay from out west. These two schools decided they could not only make just as much in the Big 12, but keep their rivals with them. After Texas A&M announced it was leaving for the SEC in 2011, OU badly wanted to join the Pac-10 again, but Texas talked OU into staying. Why would either of these schools want to disband their own conference and miss out on playing their rivals when they could build their own into a stronger one?

Also, if ACC schools aren't making much in their current home, how would they add value to the Big 12? This is the reason that Florida State and Clemson were upset with the ACC a few years ago. Their in-state rivals aren't any more popular or historically better than they are, but are out-gaining them in the revenue department. The ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, but the lack of consistent football powers is hurting their pay. The ACC is a basketball-first conference, and basketball doesn't pay as well. However, trimming off some of the fat would increase the pay for everyone.

Why is it so important to eliminate the ACC when other schools are available, both easier and cheaper? Each of the Power 5 conferences earn the same initial amount from the College Football Playoff: $51.75M per year ($258.75M split 5 ways). The Orange and Sugar Bowls pay the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC $40M each per season, while the ACC gets $27.5M from the Orange Bowl. There are also bonuses for placing more teams in the CFP field and going to national championship game, but we won't figure those in. Since the Big 12 is the smallest conference with only 10 teams it makes more from the CFP and Sugar Bowl than the other 4 conferences do. Expanding to 12 would only take away that advantage. However, if the ACC was eliminated and the Big 12 could get the Orange Bowl bid (it was attached to the Big 12's predecessor, the Big Eight Conference, from 1976-1996), the conference could stand to gain money.

For this to happen, though, the Big 12 will need help. If Texas and Oklahoma make their intentions clear that they will never be options for the Big Ten and SEC in the future, there is hope those two conferences would join in to complete a mass raid of the ACC. Both the Big Ten and SEC badly want into North Carolina and Virginia for their conference networks, so perhaps a deal could be made between the 3 conferences.

With that said, the Big 12 adds Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville for certain. The remaining two spots are where things get difficult because these are 100-year decisions. Notre Dame will be greatly pursued by the Big 12 and Pac-12, and could join a conference if Independents aren't able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Miami, Pittsburgh, and Duke are the remaining ACC schools still under consideration (sorry, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse), while American schools of Cincinnati and Memphis are too.

Duke would get the Big 12 into North Carolina - a great thing for a future Big 12 Network - and bring a Top 5 basketball program into the fold. Miami would bring a national brand and more of a presence in Florida, but lacks its own stadium and can't consistently sellout the one it plays in. Pitt is similar to Miami, but offers a new state in Pennsylvania and a better basketball program. Cincinnati and Memphis have been discussed plenty throughout this series, but would both be worthy additions to a Power conference if they could find their right one.

Ultimately, I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12 for the Pac-12, where it has two permanent rivals in Southern Cal and Stanford. That leaves the Big 12 to add Pitt and Miami to get to 16, allowing the conference to boast two more big rivalry games in Pitt-WVU and Miami-FSU. IF the Big 12 somehow could go to 20 schools, Duke, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston would allow for a great conference of four 5-team divisions.

There are a few options for the schedule. The Big 12 could go East-West, playing 7 division games and playing 2 rotating opponents from the other division. The issue is that it would take 4 years to play everyone in the conference for most teams, and Iowa St wouldn't play any of it Big Eight rivals very often. Another option is to have two divisions, rotating groups of 4 with other groups so that there are 3 different formats in 6 years. The WAC tried this in the 1990s and it is not ideal, but Texas and Oklahoma could be protected in years where they aren't aligned together.

The best option would be to have 4 divisions. The only question is whether every school would have a permanent rival (or more), or if just a few current rivals would be protected. While each team having one permanent rival from each division would provide easier scheduling, it could provide imbalanced schedules on an annual basis (similar to LSU's complaint of having to play Florida every season). Only protect the most important games: Texas-OU and ISU-KSU are the only ones that come to mind as completely necessary. For most schools, that means they play every school in the conference in 2 seasons, but the 4 exceptions would only take an extra year to do so.

The idea is to allow every school equal access into each region, so, if not in the same division as them, they'll play either FSU or Miami, Georgia Tech or Clemson, West Virginia or Pitt, Louisville or Iowa St, Kansas or Kansas St, Oklahoma or Oklahoma St, TCU or Baylor, and Texas or Texas Tech. This is the most balanced way.

Finally, I get to the money side of things. Big 12 schools currently earn $20M per season. I believe that would increase after the new schools are added, moving the Big 12 to each ground with the Big Ten and SEC at $25M per season. With 4 divisions, the Big 12 leads the movement to a 4-team conference championship playoff, allowing the division winners to determine the conference's champion. My estimates are that TV rights for these 3 games could sell for at least $4M per school. Whether or not LHN is turned into the Big 12 Network or not, I could see the Big 12 earning up to $11M per school for one, which puts the total TV payout at $40M, which would be great.

Big 12
Northwest - Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St

Southwest - Baylor, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

Northeast - Iowa St, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia

Southeast - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

2. Big Ten grabs two AAU schools

The key to pulling off the raid of the ACC is getting the Big Ten and SEC involved. While the Big Ten could be interested in two SEC schools, Missouri and Vanderbilt, this is unlikely to happen in this scenario. Virginia and North Carolina don't combine for as many students as the two SEC schools, but the population of their states combine for 8 million more people than the others. This means more TV sets, which is crucial for the Big Ten Network's footprint. These two schools also add value in basketball.

The toughest task involved with breaking up the ACC is splitting up the North Carolina schools. Honestly, realignment down to 4 power conferences will break up one of two blocks of 4 schools: North Carolina, composed of UNC, North Carolina St, Duke, and Wake Forest; or Texas, comprised of Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU. Most conferences want a Texas school to add that state to its recruiting and TV footprints, but the academic prowess of the ACC schools are what make them desirable to the Big Ten. While the Texas schools are generally considered to have the better overall athletic programs, only Texas has high-quality academics.

Splitting up North Carolina from Duke and Virginia from Virginia Tech may be difficult in theory. After all, the North Carolina schools have been together for a long time, while getting the Virginia schools in the same conference took a lot of work in the previous decade. Also, the heart of the ACC is in North Carolina, which is why many believe the ACC is a basketball-first conference. However, if the Big 12 sways the schools it is interested in, and the Big Ten uses Boston College and Syracuse (both of whom would gladly accept invitations from the Big Ten) as leverage, UNC and UVA may have to give in. I actually believe UVA is the most likely to leave, with its rival Maryland having done the same within the past few years and the possibility for a long-term scheduling agreement with in-state rival Virginia Tech. If UVA leaves, UNC will likely see the writing on the wall and come too. Otherwise, UNC risks being left out of a power conference, and I can't see the school placing itself in that position.

One thing that few have seen is that Big 12 has leverage to get the Big Ten on its side. Sure, Texas and Oklahoma can break the Big 12 up and go to whichever conference they want -- that is the point of this series. However, as previously seen in Parts 2, 4, and 5, if the Big Ten gambles on targeting these two schools, if spurned, it could be left with far less desirable options to choose from to get to 16. Any additions other than Texas, OU, Kansas, Missouri, Vanderbilt, UNC, or Virginia would be considered a failure for the Big Ten, and Texas and OU hold the cards in their hands. Iowa St is an AAU school that doesn't expand the Big Ten footprint. West Virginia, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and the remaining Texas schools just don't move the dial. If Texas and OU make their intentions clear: expand their own conference or else leave and not even consider joining the Big Ten, the Big Ten might have to take the the "sure thing" of joining in on the ACC raid. Put shortly, the Big Ten is the most powerful brand in college athletics, but the Big 12 has the leverage here and must use it if it wants to stay alive in the era of only 4 power conferences.

The additions of UNC and UVA bring a couple options to the Big Ten's alignment. For 2 divisions, East-West is easy to align. For the more progressive 4 division model, there are two scenarios. Ohio St, Michigan, MSU, and PSU together in the Midwest, the 4 Indiana and Illinois schools together in the Central, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska out West is one option. The problem is that the Midwest contains the 4 biggest brands, while the Central is historically far weaker. Another option is to align the Michigan schools in the North with Minnesota and Wisconsin, place Ohio St and Penn St with the Indiana schools in the South, and allow the Illinois schools to join Nebraska and Iowa. This creates more competitive divisions, but travel isn't quite as good. I believe the Big Ten would choose the latter option.

Big Ten

West - Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern
North - Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South - Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue

East - Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia

3. The SEC fills in the blanks

Look up a map of the SEC and you'll immediately notice a large gap on the eastern coast. It is no secret that the SEC also wants into North Carolina and Virginia to not only fill in that gap, but expand the footprint of the SEC Network into that large area of population. While UNC and UVA are better fits for the Big Ten, there are two SEC-esque schools located in those states: North Carolina St and Virginia Tech. With better football programs and more students than their respective in-state rivals, the SEC would hit the jackpot with these additions.

Gaining leverage on the SEC might prove to be fairly easy as well. While the SEC will almost always be assured solid schools to choose from if the Big 12 disbands, there are also less desirable options than VT and UNC. The SEC could see Missouri and possibly even Vanderbilt leave or could miss out on both OU and KU. West Virginia would always be there for the taking, but other options such as Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St don't offer the TV footprints of the eastern schools. Like the Big Ten, the SEC could not agree to this raid and gamble on OU and KU, but the result could leave it looking foolish. The safe route is actually one of the best expansion options regardless of which conference is dissolved, so the league would be wise to jump on this.

Aligning into divisions would also be easy in this conference, whether at 2 or 4. Missouri could shift to the West to allow VT an NCSU in the East for 2 divisions. For 4, split these 2 into sensible groups of 4.

SEC

West - Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
South - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St
North - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech

East - Florida, Georgia, North Carolina St, South Carolina

4. The Pac-12 cleans up

The Pac-12 has the least to gain by the Big 12 staying together. Its location on the west coast means there aren't as many viable expansion options if the Big 12 stays intact. The Pac-12 could certainly stay put at 12, but that is no fun, so I will only discuss its expansion options.

If the Pac-12 wants teams currently in a power conference, it has to look at ACC schools. Yes, the only options are 3 time zones away on the opposite coast. Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, and Notre Dame are what is leftover. All five are private schools, but Notre Dame and Boston College are Catholic schools. Since the Pac-12 doesn't have any religious schools, this could pose a problem, but does anyone really see the Pac-12 turning down Notre Dame.

Remember, I have Notre Dame choosing to be different to recruit nationally, which is why they don't consider the Big Ten as a viable option. The SEC lacks in academics, which blocks that conference from contention. The only two options for Notre Dame to join a conference are Big 12 and Pac-12, but the better academics and standing rivalries out west are why I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12. So ND is the first school added.

Wake Forest has stated it will drop football if players are paid; that could happen in the near future. This school arguably brings the least to the ACC right now, so I could see this school being left out. The sad thing is that WF probably wouldn't mind. That means Duke, BC, and Syracuse are the current Power 5 options to join Notre Dame in the Pac-12. While the travel would be outrageous, things might not be so bad. Notre would truly maintain playing nationally - all 4 time zones! - while the Pac-12 would gain the largest college brand in the world, the New York, Boston, and North Carolina TV markets (huge for the Pac-12 Networks), and gain more exposure on the east coast. Also, these schools, while only Duke is AAU, are not slouches on the academic side, something valued by the Pac-12.

Now, with Notre Dame already in the fold, what are some closer options? BYU is the most notable. It is the worldwide brand representing Mormans and is the only non-Power school to win a national championship in football in the modern era. BYU's football and basketball programs are perennially good. The only problems are the religious make-up of the school, the Pac-12's current presence in Utah, and no play or travel on Sundays. Despite all of that, BYU would make an excellent pair to ND's addition.

To get to 16 using this route, there are just a few remaining options left: Cincinnati, Houston, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, and Boise St. Cincinnati would be a great travel partner for Notre Dame, has a very large enrollment, and a quality overall athletic program. Houston also has a large enrollment, new athletic stadia, and a thriving football program, located in one of the top media markets. New Mexico is an underrated school, as it has a great basketball program and a ton of potential in football. While not the biggest market, the state population of New Mexico is higher than both Nebraska and West Virginia and would certainly add to the Pac-12. Nevada and UNLV are interesting cases, as the former is the higher ranked in academics and has a better football history, while the latter is located in the better market and has a very notable basketball program. Also, the state of Nevada has a larger population than New Mexico. Finally, Boise St needs to be mentioned. The football program became a national brand over the course of the 2000s, but the academic profile and other sports in the athletic program offer very little. The shine is beginning to wear off of this school, and it is simply not a viable option without its shine.

So the Pac-16's expansion options are:
-Notre Dame, Duke, Boston College, and Syracuse
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and New Mexico
-Notre Dame, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV

Each option offers its own form of potential, but the ACC schools will add more exposure than the rest. The second option listed would bring more from an athletic standpoint, and it is sad to see those schools left out, but this conference will probably choose the others.

Pac-16

Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA

Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

East - Boston College, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse

What could a Texas schedule look like?

Division Games - 3 - Played every season.

1. Baylor (home in odd years)

2. TCU (home in even years)

3. Texas Tech (home in odd years)

Inter-division Games - 6

4. Oklahoma (every season, at Cotton Bowl Stadium)

5. Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St (rotating)

6. Iowa St (even) or Louisville (odd)

7. Pittsburgh (even) or West Virginia (odd)

8. Georgia Tech (even) or Clemson (odd)

9. Florida St (even) or Miami (odd)

Out-of-Conference Games - 3

10. Texas A&M (home in even years)

11-12. Varying

Overview

This would be such a wonderful option for Texas and OU. Using the leverage they hold over both the Big Ten and SEC, they are able to keep their conference intact and add quality programs to it. No current rivalries are lost, while others with high profiles are brought in.

While not landing Notre Dame is a slight blow, Notre Dame is more likely to get the remaining ACC schools to join the Pac-16 than Pitt or Miami would be able to pull off. This is very important because if Wake Forest is the lone ACC school without a new Power 4 home, it is unlikely to sue for exit fees and the grant of rights, easing the entire process.

As mentioned, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston are worthy programs, so those 3 being left out of the new Power 4 would be disappointing. However, the priority for Texas and OU is to do what is best for themselves.

Finally, there are a whole host of out-of-conference rivalries that the Big 12 could have. Texas-Texas A&M, Texas-Arkansas, Oklahoma-Nebraska, Kansas-Missouri, and West Virginia-Maryland are rivalries we could see current schools look to bring back. However, Florida St-Florida, Clemson-South Carolina, Georgia Tech-Georgia, Pitt-Penn St, and Louisville-Kentucky would be welcomed with open arms. New conference rivalries such as FSU-Clemson, FSU-Miami, Pitt-WVU, and Pitt-Louisville would be exciting and increase the conference's profile.

Ultimately, Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest of the Big 12 would benefit by pulling this move off.

Big 12: Weighing Scheduling Options

Recently, I discussed alignment options for the Big 12. After weighing the options, the potential revenues to be earned support adding a conference championship game. Options for competitiveness support dropping from 9 conference games to either 7 or 8. In my previous post, I briefly mention how the TV networks, ESPN and FOX, would need to approve any move that alters the number of conference games. My suggestion is for the Big 12 to attempt to replace the loss of conference games with quality games outside the conference.

The Current Format

The Big 12 now has a scheduling agreement among its schools, ensuring that every school schedules at least one team from a Power 5 conference or an FBS Independent. The result is each school playing at least 10 Power 5 (P5) opponents each season. With the Big 12's 9-game slate, there are 45 total conference games.

Outside of conference (OOC), each school can only play 3 games. Of these 3, 1 must be a P5 opponent, resulting in an average of 5 home P5 games for the conference each season.

Currently, schools in the Big 12 average 2 home games of their 3 OOC each year, so that results in an average of 1.5 OOC home games that aren't in the P5.

What I will term "Total Network games" are any home game the Big 12 has; these are what the conference sells to ESPN and FOX each year. There are 65 Network games each season when you consider 45 Big 12 conference games, 5 P5 home games OOC, and 15 non-P5 home games OOC. Of those, 50 total are against Power 5 schools, which I will term "Quality Network games."

8 Conference Games + 2 Power 5 Out-of-Conference

For an 8-game conference schedule, each school would need to schedule 2 P5 schools OOC to maintain 10 P5 opponents each season. This results in only 40 Big 12 conference games, but 20 vs the P5 and 20 vs non-P5 in OOC. When figuring Total Network games, that yields a total of 65. Quality Network games would still stand at 50.

Would the networks buy this logic? I am not sure. But it checks out as long as every school is playing at least two Power 5 schools each season.

7 Conference Games + 2 Power 5 Out-of-Conference

For a 7-game conference slate, it could prove difficult for each team to find 3 P5 schools to play outside of the Big 12. So what would happen if only 2 P5 opponents were required? First, there would be only 35 Big 12 conference games. Outside of conference, there would still be 20 P5 games, but an increase to 30 non-P5 games. Total Network inventory would be 35 Big 12, 10 home P5, and an average of 22.5 non-P5 for a total of 67.5. Of the 67.5, only 45 would count as Quality Network games, resulting in the TV networks losing a guarantee of 5 quality games each season.

Remember, these figures are what is guaranteed, the floor, so Big 12 schools could potentially play more P5 OOC. I'm not sure if the networks would agree to this, but perhaps a ban on FCS opponents (which should happen anyway) would help the Big 12's case. Also, maybe the networks could be put in charge of scheduling 5 games of their choice each season, with quality Group of Five (Go5) teams such as Boise St, Cincinnati, and Houston being in the running to fill the slots.

7 Conference Games + 3 Power 5 Out-of-Conference

If the networks don't agree to a guarantee of only 45 quality games per year, then the Big 12 could try its hand at scheduling 3 P5 each season OOC. This would result in 30 games vs P5 and 20 vs non-P5 OOC. Total Network inventory would be at 65 games, but Quality Network inventory would move up to 50.

As previously stated, with the Big Ten and Pac-12 playing 9-game schedules and the ACC and SEC playing 8-game schedules, it would be tough for the Big 12 Conference to find 30 Power 5 opponents outside the conference. If it could be pulled off, though, it would be ideal.

Recap:

My suggestion is for the Big 12 to attempt to get down to the 7-game conference schedule. It would work great with having 2 divisions of 5 teams each. Scheduling would be as follows: 4 intra-division games, 2 rotating inter-division games, and 1 permanent inter-division rival. Outside the conference, the 5 games would be filled with at least 2 Power 5 opponents, with a suggestion of 3, if possible.

The Big 12 would put itself at a huge advantage compared to the other 4 power conferences when it comes to overall records and what it takes to be bowl eligible, while also offering incentive for the return of high-profile rivalries. Texas could attempt to play Arkansas and Texas A&M every season. Oklahoma could try to make Nebraska a permanent game again. West Virginia could aim for always having two of the following on the schedule: Pitt, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. Perhaps Kansas would be interested in restoring the Border War with Missouri. Even TCU could look to play former Mountain West rivals BYU and Utah (and Boise St?) on a semi-regular basis.

The Big 12 badly wants the extra revenues of a conference championship game. But expanding to 12 or adding one at the end of a round robin schedule are just not viable options. The best answer for the Big 12, whether other conferences like it or not (they won't), is to do this. The recent legislation made this possible, so it is time for the Big 12 to take advantage of that.

Texas Realignment Options - Part 5

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 5 -- Go Independent

1. Texas goes Independent in Football, joins the ACC in others

Ever since Texas and ESPN created Longhorn Network, rumors have spread that Texas was preparing to one day go Independent; there is even a clause in the contract mentioning this exact scenario. So what if this actually happened, and what would it take to make it happen? It all comes down to money: is it possible for Texas to make more money as an Independent than to be in one of the four remaining power conferences?

First of all, Texas would be following a model similar to Notre Dame. Currently, Notre Dame is a full member of the ACC in all sports except for football, where the Irish is an Independent. In exchange, ND plays 5 ACC opponents every season. Texas would follow the same model, but I project only 4 games vs ACC teams each season. The ACC is a perennial top 3 basketball conference (along with the Big Ten and Big 12), and would provide exposure for Texas along the entire eastern shoreline, from Boston down to Miami. Texas would certainly be an outlier, but this is the only major conference that would take Texas in with this type of deal.

For football, Texas could schedule any teams it wants. A long-term contract would certainly be signed with Oklahoma, while playing Arkansas and Texas A&M again every season would be the next priorities. Texas Tech and Houston are not priorities from a rivalry standpoint, but they are important to play annually so that all Power 4 schools in Texas face Texas every season. The other permanent games on the docket could be chosen from Notre Dame, BYU (also an independent, with a history of playing Texas), and Oklahoma St (the latter on the basis of keeping a Big 12 South rivalry alive). Ultimately, playing Notre Dame could be off the table since that program has 3 permanent rivalries to go along with a plethora of others and 5 ACC games. At worst, BYU and Notre Dame could rotate in with Army, Navy, and Air Force as national brands that Texas could face. For the four ACC games, my suggestion would be 1 from each division each season. That would allow Texas to play teams from the same regions each season. For the remaining 2 games, other Texas schools such as UNT, Rice, Baylor, TCU, SMU, UTSA, UTEP, and Texas State could lock down one spot, while the last could be saved for games versus Pac-16, Big Ten, or even other SEC schools. The idea is to schedule the big rivalries and brands, while also traveling around the nation.

Whether all this can happen or not is contingent on how much money Texas can make. LHN guarantees an average of $15M per year (or 70% of the profits after ESPN recovers its initial investment) for 3rd-tier TV rights, essentially any game not picked by ESPN and FOX can be shown on LHN. Currently, LHN tries to get 2 football games per season. The contract says ESPN and LHN gets first bid for 1st- and 2nd-tier TV rights if Texas leaves the Big 12, so Texas would be looking to sell 4-5 games a year. Using Notre Dame as a model, the Irish gets at least $15M per year to show 7 home football games on NBC, with other sports earning a pro-rated pay in ESPN's TV deal with the ACC.

One option is for Texas to keep LHN and bid out the rights to the 4-5 remaining home games each year. Texas should have no trouble commanding $10-12M for a package of 5 games. Ideally, these would be on a main network like FOX, ABC, CBS, or NBC, but ESPN could force them all on LHN. If the latter happened, LHN would need to be carried everywhere ESPN is (on basic cable) to make it work, as Texas would risk a lack of exposure compared to being on network TV each week. Also, LHN would need to find ways to bring in more revenues. One way would be to carry games for conferences in the Group of 5, such as the American, Mountain West, MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt. If LHN offered at least one game from each of those conferences every week, it would have not only more inventory to offer TV providers, but would make LHN a national network that could bring in more money. The only issue with offering programming from these conferences is that LHN is a network for Texas and needs to carry Texas games first. Scheduling could become very tricky for both LHN and the entire athletic program. Another thing I should mention is what happens if LHN coverage doesn't pick up. LHN is only commanding 2 cents per home from networks outside the state of Texas. If the coverage and pay don't increase, Texas could be earning 70% of not very much. That would be a huge blow, and would make it not worth it. For this plan to work, Texas is going to need more guarantees from ESPN.

The second option is to turn LHN into the ACC Network. Since ESPN owns both Texas' and the ACC's 3rd-tier rights, this would be one of the easier mergers. Texas would still need to bid its 4-5 home games out, but if LHN/ACC Network bought them it wouldn't be as bad. Since the ACC currently covers more markets than any other conference, the ACCN should be able to earn more money than any other conference network, and become a national network at that. So even if ACCN/ESPN won the bid for Texas' 5 other home games, Texas would be playing on national TV each and every week. As an Independent, that is very important. The downside to this is that all Texas games would no longer be able to be broadcast on live TV; instead, probably half of them would move to the digital network (ie- an online form).

Either way, Texas would easily bring in $25M per year from football and 3rd-tier rights. There is no way to tell what ND is currently making from the ACC, but my estimate is at least $7.5M. If Texas could pull $10M-$15M from that deal (based on the ACC renegotiating the terms of the contract with ESPN), $35M-$40M would be the total payout of this move.

2. The SEC

Refer to Part 4 for the in-depth logic behind Oklahoma and Kansas joining the SEC.

SEC

West - Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

East - Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

3. The Big Ten

Refer to Part 4 for the in-depth logic behind the Big Ten choosing West Virginia and Kansas St.

Big Ten

West - Illinois, Iowa, Kansas St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers, West Virginia

4. The Pac-12

Refer to Part 4 for the in-depth logic behind the Pac-12 becoming the Pac-16

Pac-16

Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA

Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

Central - Houston, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

5. The ACC

The ACC gets a win by adding Texas for non-football sports, but now has a few more options to choose from. First, which two teams will be added to get to 16 football members? The options are TCU, Baylor, Cincinnati, Memphis, and UConn. Since ACC schools are now guaranteed to play Texas every 4 years, there is no need to add two small, private schools that are located on a geographic island, no matter how much brand power they have. If Texas keeps LHN to itself, then the added footprint would be nice for a separate ACCN. Cincinnati and Memphis, meanwhile, offer new markets in Ohio, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi. An ACC network would also gain a big footprint by adding these schools. The difference is thinking long-term. Once TV moves more to the digital medium, networks will be largely funded by subscribers. Cincinnati and Memphis combine for over 60,000 students compared to 26,000 for TCU and Baylor.

Not to be left out is UConn. With the largest basketball pedigree of the bunch, UConn would fit in well with the ACC culture. The football program is lacking though, but that could change. UConn represents an entire state and has 30,000 students. That is 10,000 more than Memphis, which represents a single city. Ultimately, I leave UConn out since the northeast is covered by Boston College and Syracuse, while the southeastern region of the United States is prime recruiting turf. Cincinnati and Memphis are the schools the ACC gladly accepts.

Since ACC schools would have two programs to play outside of conference, I think Notre Dame is allowed to bump down to only 4 ACC games per season. That means each ACC program would play Texas and Notre Dame once every 4 seasons. If the ACC wanted, it could allow BYU to join the conference on similar grounds. The only issues are that BYU doesn't play sports or travel on Sundays and that they are in the Mountain Time Zone. Still, BYU has quality football and basketball programs and would fit in with the large brands of Texas and Notre Dame. If a 4th school could be found for this model, each ACC program would play one of the 4 schools each season in football. Perhaps TCU and/or Baylor go Independent and try to build up their brands. However, 20-21 schools is a little much for basketball scheduling and there aren't any available schools that meet the criteria, so Notre Dame, Texas, and possibly BYU are enough.

ACC

West - Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh

North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest

South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

What could a Texas schedule look like?

Permanent Rivalry Games - 5 - Played every season.

1. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)

2. Arkansas (home in odd years)

3. Texas A&M (home in even years)

4. Texas Tech (home in odd years)

5. Houston (home in even years)
Rotating ACC Games - 4 - Played every 4 seasons.

6. Memphis (odd) or Louisville (odd) or Cincinnati (even) or Pittsburgh (even)

7. Boston College (even) or Syracuse (even) or Virginia (odd) or Virginia Tech (odd)

8. North Carolina (odd) or North Carolina St (odd) or Wake Forest (even) or Duke (even)

9. Florida St (even) or Miami (even) or Georgia Tech (odd) or Clemson (odd)
Remaining Games - 3

10. Rotating Texas Group of 5 opponent: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas St, UNT, UTEP, or UTSA (home)
11. Rotating national brand: BYU, Notre Dame, Army, Air Force, or Navy
12. Rotating Pac-16, Big Ten, or SEC school

Overview

This would cause problems on multiple fronts. First, Baylor and TCU fail to find a new home in the Power 5. The two could get together with the best brands left, including Boise St and possibly BYU, to create a new conference, or could float as Independents. Neither is as desirable as joining one of the top 4 conferences, and the pay reflects that. I would expect these two schools to sue the other former Big 12 schools for the Grant of Rights and exit fees.

For Texas, the pay seems like it could be there. The freedom of scheduling would be welcomed, as would the return of local rivalries. Sure, annual games versus OSU, Baylor, and TCU would be missed, but it would be impossible to keep them all and be affiliated with the ACC. Ideally, Texas would be able to play those 3, Notre Dame, and BYU each season, but there just isn't room for that. While LHN and Independence have long seemed to be linked together, Texas may have to give LHN up to be able to afford being an "Indy."

One final thing to mention is this, with the move to only 4 conferences and there still only being 4 playoff spots, would Independents stand a chance of getting in? The Power 4 could demand that each of their champions get in, which would make a move to Independence a bad one. A provision could be included that the final spot be the best team of Texas, Notre Dame, and the ACC Champion, which would make this move be in Texas' favor. Or, due to potential antitrust litigation from the Group of 5, the playoff could remain the "4 best teams," to allow Independents and champions of smaller conferences access to the playoff. Whatever it may be, Texas needs to know before it makes a move.

Texas Realignment Options - Part 4

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 4 -- Join the ACC

1. Texas and Notre Dame join the ACC

The ACC currently ranks fifth among the Power 5 conferences in both TV and total revenues. What is the first step towards fixing this? Well, landing Texas and Notre Dame, the top two most valuable athletic programs in the nation, is certainly a great start. Every conference wants these two schools (sans maybe Texas for the SEC), but the ACC is the lucky winner.

Ideally, at least Oklahoma and Kansas would come along with Texas to provide geographic rivalries, but these schools simply have better options on the table. Plus, the Power 5 conferences are moving towards a Power 4 with 16-team conferences, and further expansion would put the ACC at 18 or 20.

Currently, the ACC earns $18M per school from ESPN for all TV rights. By adding Texas and Notre Dame, this would have to be renegotiated to a better value, as Texas is not going to be taking a pay cut. Considering the ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, and these two schools will only add to that, the conference could use this to its advantage. The large footprint, combined with Texas' Longhorn Network, would also help the ACC get its own network. Conveniently, ESPN owns both LHN and the rights to a future ACC Network. There should be no issues in turning LHN into ACC Network and eventually surpassing the income the SEC Network brings in. Yes, ESPN would have to renegotiate with the TV providers, but ESPN is the most powerful network of them all. The ACC should be able to reach $25M-$35M per year for each school, but it won't happen immediately.

Additionally, ACC schools earn the least amount of pay from the College Football Playoff. With the dissolution of the Big 12, the ACC has a chance to take the Big 12's spot (and the $40M that comes with it) in the Sugar Bowl. Combine that with the Orange Bowl's $27.5M payout and the $64.69M from the College Football Playoff, and ACC would each get $8.26M. That is a grand total of $33M-$43M per school, before NCAA Tournament revenues are added in.

4 divisions would be the best for this conference, but the conference could keep its current 2.

ACC

West - Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Texas

North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest

South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

2. Oklahoma makes its pick

Oklahoma is the most sought after school after Texas and Notre Dame find their home. The Big Ten would be willing to waive the AAU requirement for the Sooners, while the SEC would love having another big brand. The Pac-12 wants OU, but the money simply isn't there without Texas. OU's options are complicated. The Big Ten and SEC both offer the most money and exposure. The SEC offers the football hotbed of the South, while the Big Ten offers the lesser recruiting ground of the North. Joining the SEC offers potential rivalries with Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and LSU. The Big Ten would allow Nebraska and Kansas, to go along with Michigan, Ohio St, and Penn St. Staying in the South is most important, though, and the current 8-game schedule would allow OU to keep both OSU and Texas on the permanent out-of-conference line-up. The SEC could eventually add a 9th game, but for now that factor makes the difference.

Kansas would listen to the Big Ten, but the appeal of the SEC is just too strong. Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and Georgia recruiting would help the football program, while the basketball program would be in annual showdowns with Kentucky.

2 divisions are more natural, so the SEC stick with East and West.

SEC

West - Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

East - Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

3. The Big Ten makes a tough decision

The Big Ten will not be happy and could move in a number of directions. West Virginia, UConn, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Houston, TCU, and Baylor are the only real options left, but all of them have flaws. Iowa St is the only AAU school, but the Big Ten already has Iowa. The rest are in markets that would expand the conference footprint, but lack on the research front in the classroom.

This call is really too tough for an outsider to make, but I'm going with WVU and KSU getting called up.

Big Ten

West - Illinois, Iowa, Kansas St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers, West Virginia

4. The Pac-12 cleans up

The Pac-12 would have a a few options left to expand. Oklahoma St and Texas Tech are the obvious choices. Then sits Iowa St, Baylor, TCU, Houston, BYU, and Boise St among bigger brands. BYU is the best program of all, with the largest fan base, but is a religious private school. I only believe the Pac-12 will allow a religious school in if it is, or would help land, Notre Dame. Since that is not an option at this point, Iowa St, Houston, and Boise St are the options remaining. Ultimately, Boise St brings in very little outside of a solid football program, so it does not get the call.

Pac-16

Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA

Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

Central - Houston, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

What could a Texas schedule look like?

Division Games - 3 - Played every season.

1. Notre Dame (home in even years)

2. Louisville (home in odd years)

3. Pittsburgh (home in even years)

Inter-division Games - 6 - Played every other season.

4. Boston College (even) or Syracuse (odd)

5. Virginia Tech (even) or Virginia (odd)

6. North Carolina St (even) or North Carolina (odd)

7. Duke (even) or Wake Forest (odd)

8. Georgia Tech (even) or Clemson (odd)

9. Florida St (even) or Miami (odd)

Out-of-Conference Games - 3

10. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)

11-12. Varying

Overview

This would cause problems on multiple fronts. First, Baylor and TCU fail to find a new home in the Power 5. The two could get together with the best brands left, including Boise St, BYU, and Cincinnati to create a new conference, or could float as Independents. Neither is as desirable as joining one of the top 4 conferences, and the pay reflects that. I would expect these two schools to sue the other former Big 12 schools for the Grant of Rights and exit fees.

For Texas, there is no guarantee the ACC would pay as much as the current Big 12, so this isn't a great choice. Being aligned without any in-state rivals is problematic, and the lack of intriguing games for Longhorn fans could turn them off.

Texas Realignment Options - Part 3

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 3 -- Join the Big Ten

1. Texas and Oklahoma join the Big Ten conference

What would happen if Texas and Oklahoma decided to join the Big Ten? It is certainly possible the Big Ten could keep pushing the boundaries and expand to 18 or even 20 schools. But as long as the ACC is still alive - and it will be if the Big 12 is gone - that is highly unlikely to happen. Texas is an AAU school and is the Big Ten's obvious number one expansion target. OU is not a member of the AAU, but has a big enough brand to make up for it. These two schools would be alone on an island, but would also provide a recruiting pipeline to other western Big Ten schools that rivals the Michigan and Ohio pipeline in the east.

The Big Ten has a network in BTN, so Texas will have to rid itself of the Longhorn Network to join. Currently, BTN brings in $32M per year to the conference, but with Texas and Oklahoma TV markets boosting payouts in those states, that number would likely rise to over $40M overall. Current projections are for the Big Ten to soon begin distributing $44.5M in total revenues to each conference member. With the addition of Oklahoma and Texas, those numbers would only rise. How high the pay gets is tough figure, as the Big Ten will soon renegotiate its TV contracts, and there aren't any clear estimates of what the contract will average at this time. Just know that it will be significant.

The Big Ten is could easily divide into either 2 or 4 divisions.

Big Ten

West - Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas

Central - Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Midwest - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue

East - Maryland, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers

2. The SEC makes moves

The SEC gets second pick and is still a winner here. Kansas is the clear favorite simply based on its basketball brand; the thought of having both Kentucky and Kansas in the same conference should make the league office happy. While the football program has hit all-time lows, it never hurts to have a weaker team that everyone can beat up on. Also, Kansas went 12-1 in 2007, so it is not like winning is impossible in Lawrence.

The next spot is between West Virginia and Iowa St. While both are solid basketball programs and ISU is the bigger school, WVU is more established in football and carries an entire state. WVU is the pick, but ISU is a solid fallback option.

The SEC is always difficult to divide since the 2-school states are located in the center of the conference. 4 divisions are difficult to create, but so are just 2, which is why I'm going with 4.

SEC

West - Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Texas A&M

Central - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St

North - Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

East - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia

3. The Pac-12 becomes the Pac-16

The Pac-12 ends up with the same choices as in Part 2: Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech. If one of those is not available, Houston is a shoo-in.

Pac-16

Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA

Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

Central - Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

4. The ACC happily takes the scraps

The ACC ends up with the same result as in Parts 1 and 2: TCU and Baylor.

ACC

West - Baylor, Louisville, Pittsburgh, TCU

North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest

South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

What could a Texas schedule look like?

Division Games - 3 - Played every season.

1. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)

2. Nebraska (home in odd years)

3. Iowa (home in even years)

Inter-division Games - 6 - Played every other season.

4. Wisconsin (even) or Minnesota (odd)

5. Northwestern (even) or Illinois (odd)

6. Indiana (even) or Purdue (odd)

7. Michigan (even) or Michigan St (odd)

8. Penn St (even) or Ohio St (odd)

9. Rutgers (even) or Maryland (odd)

Out-of-Conference Games - 3

10. Texas A&M (?)

11-12. Varying

Overview

Again, this would be great for every Big 12 school, as they all find new homes within the Power 5. It is disappointing for schools like Cincinnati, Houston, BYU, Boise St, or any other in the Group of 5 conferences, and even more so now that there are only 4 Power conferences with a 4-team playoff. Perhaps this sparks the break away for a third football subdivision in Division 1, allowing the Group of 5 to have their own playoff.

Texas Realignment Options - Part 2

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 2 -- Join the SEC

1. Texas and Oklahoma join the Southeastern Conference

The Southeastern Conference is an ideal location for the Texas Longhorns. Being paired with the school's three most-historic rivals of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas A&M would be huge for Texas. Sure, the annual games against Texas Tech, Baylor, and now TCU would be discontinued, but Texas would be in the same conference as its top three rivals for the first time since…1919. The advantage Texas A&M currently carries in recruiting would be erased, which is a big bonus. The lower academic standards of the SEC are not ideal, but that is one of the few downsides of making this move.

The most important question is how could this happen? Current rumors suggest a gentlemen's agreement among the institutions that solely represent their state within the SEC, where they will vote to block another school from one of those states from entering the conference. Needing a ¾ majority for the conference to extend an invitation, that protects Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida from having to compete with in-state rivals in the SEC. Currently at 14 schools, the SEC needs 11 votes to add institutions, and those 4 can block whomever they want.

However, realignment is nearing its end if Texas and OU are seriously on the table, as there will be four 16-team conferences, likely keeping the 65 Power 5 schools intact. The SEC already has Texas A&M, but I'm not certain the Aggies could block Texas' admission, partially because it is one of the newest additions. The SEC has to weigh its options on what schools they could get outside of Texas, and if OU is a packaged deal (as widely believed), the SEC could have an all-or-nothing situation on its hands. The two Mississippi, two Alabama, and two Tennessee schools would almost certainly vote in Texas' favor. While the 4-school pact in the east would hate to have schools added in their states, it is highly unlikely to ever be considered, as the league is more interested into expanding into new markets. Basically, if ACC schools could be added, North Carolina and Virginia are more important than Florida St and Clemson because they would add to the SEC Network's revenue. But going to 16 now would prevent those schools from even becoming options down the road, so I can see those 4 votes being in favor of Texas. If Missouri is still around, one would have to believe they would love getting to play in Texas more often, so they would likely vote yes; if they are no longer in the SEC, only 10 votes would be needed.

Another key thing I should mention is why OU would allow this to be a packaged deal with Texas. OU knows how important the Texas game is to the program, the school, and its fans. Joining the SEC without Texas (or without Texas' consent) could alienate Texas in a way Texas A&M similarly did, but it could be much worse. Texas could replace OU with Arkansas or Texas A&M, but OU would be hard-pressed to get Nebraska back on the schedule annually or build a big rivalry up with Arkansas. Also, there is the fact that OU will have difficulty going anywhere without OSU joining along. If OU is able to do that, it could alienate its other rival too. A schedule without Texas and OSU on it would cause backlash from fans and boosters. So it is safe to say that the only way OU is going to join the SEC is with Texas' consent, and in this scenario, Texas only gives consent if Texas gets to join too.

The final question is whether Missouri stays or West Virginia replaces them. With Texas and OU in the fold, Missouri will certainly be placed in a western division of some sort, granting annual access to the southwest for recruiting. But with that comes increased competition. Bolting for the Big Ten would place Missouri with its main rival, similar midwest schools, and a far easier football conference. This is a toss-up, so I will project Missouri to stay. (Honestly, if the SEC could get Kansas and OU, it would be perfect for Missouri, but that just isn't an option.)

Now, the SEC currently has the SEC Network, which is owned by ESPN. Texas has the Longhorn Network, also owned by ESPN. 16 schools could be a little much for one station to cover, as there are plenty of SEC Network alternates right now. It is certainly possible that ESPN could somehow turn LHN into a second SEC Network, perhaps for the schools in the west.

The money will be good, too. The SEC is set to average $25M per school through the life of its TV contracts with CBS and ESPN. The SEC Network could bring in $10M per school very school, while the College Football Playoff and Sugar Bowl will bring in just under $10M per school under this scenario. $45M before factoring in NCAA Tournament and other bowl pay is excellent.

Creating 2 divisions is easy, while 4 is very difficult. I will stick with 2 divisions here.

SEC

West - Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

East - Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

2. The Big Ten gets its pick

Missouri staying in the SEC will not make the Big Ten happy. Sure, Kansas is highly coveted, but there is not an ideal partner to get the conference to 16 schools. The Big Ten could call Vanderbilt, but will likely receive the same answer Missouri gave. The ACC schools, with their $50M buyout and Grant of TV Rights through 2027, are assumed to be out of reach. This leaves two options: add AAU member Iowa St or non-AAU member West Virginia. Since West Virginia expands the conference's footprint, it gets the nod.

The BTN expands into West Virginia and Kansas.

Again, the conference could choose either 2 or 4 divisions. Since geography is not on our side, I'll simply go for 2 divisions.

Big Ten

West - Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers, West Virginia

3. The Pac-12 comes to the rescue

Oklahoma St and Texas Tech don't have the best academic prowess out there, but they are high-profile programs that would bring the Pac-12 into new territory. Kansas St and Iowa St don't have as big of brand names as those two, but are still very solid. These 4 programs might be considered leftovers, but going west could provide them plenty of opportunities to break out of the shadows of their in-state rivals, similar to what Texas A&M started to do after joining the SEC in 2012. The only disadvantage here is that the Pac-12, the "Conference of Champions," is located on the west coast and can sometimes be overlooked.

TCU and Baylor, as mentioned in Part 1, are fledging programs. These two are currently bigger brands than the other four, but are tiny private schools. The Pac-12 has unstated rules about not adding religious schools, and with other viable options available, these two don't make much sense out west.

Houston has to also be considered. Now that TCU is in a Power conference, Houston has essentially replaced them by following a similar path in the Group of 5. A brand new stadium and arena have been built, and the football program was perhaps the best in the state in 2015. While the great basketball program for the 1980s and 1990s has fallen off, the potential is still there. Houston is a huge football market, so this would be a great add for the Pac-12 if it is willing to take a risk. It took one with Utah in 2011, and that move is beginning to look good. Houston has an even higher ceiling than Utah. Still, I am not certain if the Pac-12 will look at this school. If Iowa St makes it into the Big Ten, then Houston gets in. But I don't see that happening here.

Pac-16

Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA

Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

Central - Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

4. The ACC happily takes the scraps

The same scenario takes place for the ACC. TCU and Baylor are added.

No divisions would be needed for the 17-team league in non-football sports, but 2 or 4 would work well in football.

ACC

West - Baylor, Louisville, Pittsburgh, TCU

North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest

South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

What could a Texas schedule look like?

Division Games - 7 - Played every season.

1. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)

2. Arkansas (home in odd years)

3. Texas A&M (home in even years)
4. LSU (home in odd years)
5. Missouri (home in even years)
6. Mississippi (home in odd years)
7. Mississippi St (home in even years)

Inter-division Games - 2 - Played every 4th season

8. Alabama (odd) or Auburn (odd) or Tennessee (even) or Vanderbilt (even)
9. Florida (even) or Georgia (even) or South Carolina (odd) or Kentucky (odd)

Out-of-Conference Games - 3

10-12. Varying

Overview

Once again, this would be great for every Big 12 school, as they all find new homes within the Power 5. It is disappointing for schools like Cincinnati, Houston, BYU, Boise St, or any other in the Group of 5 conferences, and even more so now that there are only 4 Power conferences with a 4-team playoff. Perhaps this sparks the break away for a third football subdivision in Division 1, allowing the Group of 5 to have their own playoff.

Texas Realignment Options - Part 1

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 1 -- Join the Pac-12

1. Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech join the Pac-12 Conference

The easiest place to move, as it almost happened in both 2010 and 2011, is the Pac-12, turning it into the Pac-16. Two Texas and two Oklahoma schools add to the already-balanced nature of the Pac-12. This is considered a home run for the conference, while keeping regional rivalries alive for the former Big 12 schools. Also, expect an agreement that ensures these Central Time Zone schools will not be forced to play late games on the Pacific coast, or that there will at least be a cap on how many take place.

Two new regional conference networks are created, Pac-16 Texas and Pac-16 Oklahoma, while the Pac-16 Network also becomes available in these states. Texas' Longhorn Network would have to go, but Texas would have to buyout the contract for this to happen. This could throw a wrench in the plan.

TV revenues are currently set to average $21M per year for each Pac-12 school over the life of the contract, plus anything the Pac-12 Networks bring in. The Networks have annually paid each school between $1M-$1.5M, but that number should grow as time goes on, and certainly after expansion into Texas and Oklahoma. Creating a 4-team championship tournament in football would allow for an extra $1M-$2M per school. Also, with the dissolution of the Big 12, College Football Playoff money would be divided among 4 Power conferences, not 5. Total revenue from the CFP and Rose Bowl would be just south of $10M per school. So the Pac-16 would bring in an average of at least $33M per school in revenues from TV and major bowl games, with the number to go up after the Networks get a better footing.

For basketball and other Olympic sports, the ideal format would be 4 divisions. Since 4 divisions aren't yet allowed in football, the Pac-16 could attempt to change the rules or simply merge 4 down to 2 for football only.

Pac-12

Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA

Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

Central - Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech

2. Kansas and Missouri find a home together

Kansas and Missouri are historic rivals, one of the many that have gone to the wayside due to realignment. If the Big 12 breaks up, chances are these two will get back on the same page. And they have 2 excellent choices ahead of them in the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten requires that its schools are a part of a group of research institutions called the AAU, which essentially means these are quality schools (the exception is Nebraska, which got kicked out after joining the Big Ten). If the Big 12 breaks up, the only practical AAU options on the market will be Kansas, Iowa St, and Texas of the Big 12, along with Missouri and Vanderbilt of the SEC. Since Texas will be off the board, Vanderbilt is a founding member of the SEC, and Iowa is a member of the Big Ten, the two most logical options are Kansas and Missouri.

Missouri has wanted to join the Big Ten since the early 1990s, but settled for the SEC in 2011 after continued instability in the Big 12 put the school at risk of being left out of the fold someday. The SEC, however, has been great for the Tigers. The football program has won 2 division titles in its first 4 seasons and a new rivalry has been created with neighboring Arkansas. Not only does Missouri have ties to Texas recruiting, but also Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana as well. A con of joining the Big Ten is that would all go away, as Nebraska has certainly learned. But joining the Big Ten was the long-term goal, and that conference will be pressing hard for these two schools. Since the Big Ten has offered the most amount of TV money for some time now, and will continue to, I truly believe it will find a way to make this happen.

BTN, the Big Ten's Network, is already available nationwide, but it will for certain be available in every Kansas and Missouri home.

Dividing the Big Ten would not be as easy as the Pac-16. 4 divisions could be used for basketball and other sports, or there could be no divisions. Football would require either 2 or 4 divisions, with 2 being easy to divide (East and West), and 4 being a bit more challenging.

Big Ten

West - Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Central - Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Midwest - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Purdue

East - Maryland, Ohio, Penn St, Rutgers

3. The SEC gets its pick

The SEC is not used to losing schools, with Tulane being the last to leave in 1966. The loss of Missouri, and its Kansas City and St. Louis markets, would hurt the footprint of the SEC Network, so they would need to add more schools. The options at hand would be West Virginia, Iowa St, Kansas St, Baylor, and TCU of the Big 12, along with Cincinnati and Temple of the American.

Cincinnati is a very intriguing school for the SEC, as it would gain a footprint of Ohio for the SEC Network, and the fact that this school has been consistently good in both football and basketball, albeit in a weaker conference. It should be noted than Cincy's fan base is not a sure thing, but there are 43,000 students and playing in the SEC would provide plenty of reason to travel and show up to games. The stadium seats only 40,000, but expansion and using the Bengals' stadium (65,000) is not out of the question. Cincinnati could very well be the next Louisville if given the right platform, and joining the SEC would be that platform.

Temple is most known for getting kicked out of the Big East in 2005 because its football program was so bad. But the program is making a comeback now that it is in the American. The school holds similar potential to Cincy in that it just needs a platform to really explode. The student enrollment is 38,000, and its stadium, also home to the Philadelphia Eagles, seats 68,000. The basketball program has been decent, not great, but the city and state are both considered a basketball hotbed, which could really help out the SEC in that regard. Once again, getting the SEC Network in a state like this would be huge for the conference. Attendance issues in football could ultimately be what keeps Temple out of the running, but the fans do show up when big named teams come to town.

Baylor and TCU wouldn't have a chance to join, but ISU, KSU, and WVU certainly are compelling options as they have the most SEC-like fan bases of any Big 12 schools, at respective enrollments of 36,000, 25,000, and 30,000 students. These fans are dedicated and show up despite any poor on-field performance. ISU and WVU both have stadia that seat over 60,000, while KSU's seats 50,000. Also, these three Big 12 schools are known for their strong basketball programs, which the SEC is in dire need of.

West Virginia will obviously be Missouri's replacement, as the football program with the largest brand name and an entire state worth of fans, but the next two spots are where the questions lie. The conference could decide to play it safe and add established Power schools, or take a risk by adding a couple on-the-cusp schools. If the two Big 12 schools aren't chosen, then the other 8 could face serious lawsuits. Ultimately, I think the SEC sticks with ISU and KSU.

The SEC Network gains ground in 3 new states, and the revenues of these 3 schools increase.

Dividing the SEC is the most difficult yet. I cannot see 4 divisions being a thing in basketball, but it could happen in football. Like the other conferences, if only 2 divisions are in the cards, then merging the 4 divisions I give into 2 is simple.

SEC

West - Arkansas, Kansas St, LSU, Texas A&M

Central - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St

North - Iowa St, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

East - Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia

4. The ACC happily takes the scraps

Ever since the ACC announced it was adding Pitt and Syracuse to get to 14 schools, and especially after Maryland left and was replaced with Louisville, the common thought is that the conference may as well just go to 16. Cincinnati and UConn both were in the same conference as those 3 schools for the some time, have decent markets, and have great basketball programs. Since the ACC is the most basketball-first conference in the Power 5, those two schools make a ton of sense. But TCU and Baylor have to be considered as well.

TCU and Baylor are two Texas schools that would certainly add a lot of value to the ACC. TCU was kicked out of the Power conferences in 1996 and clawed its way back to the Big 12 in 2012, going through the WAC, C-USA, and Mountain West along the way. The football program is now widely recognized, while basketball has been steadily improving. Despite a student population of only 10,000, TCU sits in the football (and basketball) hotbed of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and has completely rebuild both its 45,000-seat stadium and its arena. Baylor has always been a member of a power conference, but was a doormat until the late 2000s when its basketball started taking off and its football began following. Baylor is now a visible brand and known football and basketball power. It enrollment is small at 16,000, but its brand new 45,000-seat stadium averages 46,000 fans per game over the course of its first two seasons. Adding these schools and gaining a footing in Texas would be great for ACC recruiting, and might just be the final stepping stone for the long-rumored ACC Network to become a reality.

The ACC currently covers the most amount of TV markets of all the conferences, and adding Texas markets would make things even better. ESPN would finally have a good reason to go forward with the ACC Network, and adding revenues to all 17 schools in this conference, including non-football-member Notre Dame.

No divisions would be needed for the 17-team league in non-football sports, but 2 or 4 would work well in football.

ACC

West - Baylor, Louisville, Pittsburgh, TCU

North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest

South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

What could a Texas schedule look like?

Division Games - 3 - Played every season.

1. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)

2. Oklahoma St (home in odd years)

3. Texas Tech (home in even years)

Inter-division Games - 6 - Played every other season.

4. Washington (even) or Washington St (odd)

5. Oregon St (even) or Oregon (odd)

6. Cal (even) or Stanford (odd)

7. Southern Cal (even) or UCLA (odd)

8. Arizona (even) or Arizona St (odd)

9. Colorado (even) or Utah (odd)

Out-of-Conference Games - 3

10. Texas A&M (?)

11-12. Varying

Overview

This would be great for every Big 12 school, as they all find new homes within the Power 5. It is disappointing for schools like Cincinnati, Houston, BYU, Boise St, or any other in the Group of 5 conferences, and even more so now that there are only 4 Power conferences with a 4-team playoff. Perhaps this sparks the break away for a third football subdivision in Division 1, allowing the Group of 5 to have their own playoff.

Big 12: Weighing Alignment Options

Yesterday, the NCAA granted the 10-team Big 12 Conference the opportunity to field a conference championship game (CCG) in football. Moving forward, there are a few options for the Big 12. Let's discuss the realistic choices the conference has to pick from.

Simply add a CCG

The Big 12 is the only Power 5 conference (P5) without a CCG. Now, the conference could simply add a CCG on top of the round-robin schedule to get a 13th game (and the increased TV payout that comes with it). The problem is that this would guarantee a rematch from the regular season, and it could potentially be a rematch from the previous week (as OU and OSU would have done in 2015). The Big 12 could knock itself out of playoff discussion if the top seed loses, while the fans may not travel in droves if two teams play each other two weeks in a row. This means the CCG would need to be hosted by the top seed. On the flip side, a scenario like Baylor and TCU from 2014 would have likely boosted the winner into the College Football Playoff (CFP).

From a TV contract standpoint, the Big 12 brings in an average of $20M per school from ESPN and FOX through the life of the contract. The inventory is as follows: 45 Big 12 Conference games and 30 out of conference games (OOC), with the networks getting to choose from any of the games in which a Big 12 school hosts, roughly 60 games per year. A CCG would be bid out to the networks, and it is expected that could bring in anywhere from $20M-$35M. With the potential for rematches, though, I believe it will be closer to $20M, and will use $2M per school as the guideline. That means Big 12 schools would bring in $22M each from Big 12 TV contracts.

The Big 12 also receives $91.75M in total from the Sugar Bowl and CFP contracts. Split only 10 ways in comparison to 12 or 14 from the other P5 conferences, that is $9.175M per school. Other bowls don't pay nearly as much, so they aren't as important for this comparison.

Before 3rd tier TV rights (anything that ESPN and FOX don't want) come into the equation, Big 12 schools would each bring in $31.175M per season. If the Big 12 was able to form its own network for these 3rd tier games, potentially using Texas' Longhorn Network as a platform, those revenues would approach, and likely surpass, $40M.

Expand

The reason I was so extensive above was because OU President David Boren is causing a ruckus, wanting the Big 12 to expand back to 12 teams and form a conference network. He feels the Big 12 is disadvantaged at 10 teams, and I can understand that. However, expansion is not as good of an idea as it may appear.

First of all, the options aren't great. BYU, Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis, Central Florida, and South Florida are the only real options. Houston does not expand the conference footprint, while Boise St does not add much to a TV contract. BYU is a great school and has an excellent athletic program, but no Sunday play causes problems in non-football sports. Plus, the conference added West Virginia in 2012, so adding BYU would mean the conference would span 3 time zones. BYU just is not happening. Cincinnati has a wonderful athletic program in both football and basketball, expands the TV footprint, and bridges the gap to WVU. This school is the best of the available options. Finding a school to pair with them is an issue. UConn has great basketball, mediocre football, and would really stretch the conference to the north and east. Memphis has great basketball and a rising football program, but lacks a proven fan base. The Florida schools haven't ever been consistently great in football or basketball, but are in great markets; however they stretch the conference out pretty far as well.

Let's say the Big 12 add Cincinnati and Memphis and splits into 2 divisions. Will the TV networks pro-rate the existing payout to account for the addition of these two schools? How many conference games would the conference need to have? Those answers aren't out there for the public right now, but we can speculate.

If the Big 12 went back to 8 conference games per school, there would be 48 conference games and 48 OOC, creating an inventory of 72 games for ESPN and FOX to choose from. Then, the CCG would be added in. At 9 conference games per school, there would be 54 conference games, 36 OOC, and a CCG. Moving back to 8 conference games would put the Big 12 on equal footing as the SEC, ACC, and (for now) Big Ten, and make it much easier for every team in the conference to get bowl eligible. The problem is they'd be asking the networks to pay $40M more for just 3 extra conference games, even if the inventory would have more overall games. I believe that the Big 12 would need to promise the networks that at least half of the OOC games would be against P5 teams for this to work.

To tally that up, Big 12 schools would, at best, earn $20M per school in TV money, $2M per school from the CCG, and only $7.65M per school from the CFP and Sugar Bowl. $29.65M per school is down from $31.175 from not expanding, so they would need to make sure that a potential Big 12 Network could mask that loss and get over $40M per school. I just don't know if that is possible.

Stay at 10, but split into divisions

Lastly, we have the newest option. The legislation that was just passed called for 2 scenarios: stay at 10, keep the round-robin format, and have a CCG between the top 2 teams; OR split into equal divisions, with the champions facing off in the CCG. At first, that sounds like a bad idea. But go in depth a little more and this is actually the scenario that provides the most wiggle room.

If the conference splits into 2 divisions, it would be pointless to keep playing 9 conference games, a round robin. So the Big 12 would have to field 8 conference games, right? Not at all. The Big 12 could choose to play only 7 games, which would be better in so many ways. Before I delve into those details, lets attempt to split the conference up into 2 divisions.

First of all, the two flagship schools, the big brands of OU and Texas must be separated. This leaves 2 sensible options: split back into North and South, or use the "zipper" method to split the teams up.

North - South
OU    - Texas
OSU  - TTU
KU    - BU
KSU  - TCU
ISU   -  WVU

For North and South, the North would consist of OU, OSU, KU, KSU, and ISU, while the South would consist of Texas, TTU, TCU, BU, and WVU. This is the easiest split, as the former Big Eight schools stay together and the Texas schools play WVU, but the South is notably tougher than the North. This brings me to the "zipper" method (actually a modified zipper since OU and OSU won't be split up), where every school is paired up with their designated rival, then split down the middle like a zipper.

Division A - Division B
Texas         - OU
TTU          - OSU
BU            - TCU
KU            - KSU
WVU         - ISU

I think the zipper would balance the division more fairly, so that is the one I would suggest, but both would work.

For scheduling with 8 conference games, each school would play 4 divisional opponents, their designated rival, and 3 of the 4 remaining teams from the opposite division. For 7 conference games, everything would stay the same except for playing 2 of the 4 remaining teams from the opposite division. From an inventory standpoint, 8 game schedules would yield 40 Big 12 games and 40 OOC games, for a total inventory of at least 60 games. At 7 games, the inventory would have 35 Big 12 games and 50 OOC games, for a total inventory of at least 60 games, but likely more than 70.

So if we don't expect TV networks to pay $40M for 3 extra conference games, why should they pay the same amount as they currently do for 5-10 LESS games? At face value, the networks likely wouldn't go for that. But what if the Big 12 gave the networks a scheduling commitment? The Big 12 recently created a scheduling commitment to have at least 1 P5 school on the schedule per team, per season. That totals out to each school guaranteeing playing 10 P5 schools a season, with an average of 50 in the ESPN/FOX inventory. At 7 conference games, if the Big 12 mandated that each school play 3 P5 teams per season, that would total out at 30 P5 games in OOC and at least 15 of those in the Big 12 inventory, bumping the total inventory of P5 games up to 50. There would be no change from the current outlook from a standpoint of offering the networks quality games. Similarly, going back to 8 conference games would yield the same result if the Big 12 mandated each school to play 2 P5 schools per season.

Financially, what does this offer the Big 12? Each school would keep making $20M from ESPN/FOX. The CCG would bring in at least $2M per school, but certainly more than what a guaranteed rematch and potential back-to-back CCG would offer, so I could safely assume it would be $3M per school. The CFP and Sugar Bowl would continue paying $9.175M per school. The total conference payout bumps up to $32.175M. There would be 10-20 games left in the total home game inventory for a potential Big 12 Network to use, assuming ESPN/FOX picks up all of the others. The Big 12 Network should not have a problem clearing $40M per school each year.

What would be best for the Big 12?

There are many things to factor in to this answer. First of all, staying at 10 teams will clearly pay each school the more money than expanding will. Both of the next options offer similar pay, but guaranteeing a rematch at the end of the season is not ideal and I truly believe it would bring in less than having 2 division champions meet up.

An important thing to look at is the Big 12's current perception among the Power 5. Big 12 schools currently play 9 conference games, which equates to only 3 OOC games. That means the Big 12 as a whole is guaranteed 5 extra losses than it would have using an 8-game scheduling format, and 10 more losses compared to a 7-game schedule. That means the Big 12 is guaranteed collectively finishing no better than 75-45 (.625) compared to 80-40 (.667) and 85-35 (.708), all if the Big 12 goes undefeated in OOC games.

SEC, ACC, and, currently, Big Ten schools play 8 conference games. At 14 members each, the best each conference can finish is 112-56 (.667). With 9 conference games, that number would dip down to 105-63 (.625). The Pac-12 currently has the toughest schedule of the others, playing 9 conference games.

The most obvious thing to look at is CFP participation. Is it a coincidence that the 2 conferences that play the most games within the conference are also the 2 that have each been left out of the CFP once in the past 2 seasons? Next, you can look at 10 win teams (which usually all finish the season ranked in the top 25), as it is statistically impossible for the Big 12 to match the number of 10-win teams as it is for other conferences. Also, some metrics go by how many bowl teams a given team has played. Playing 4 OOC games gives the opportunity to only need 2 conference wins to reach a bowl, but for the Big 12, that number is 3. That's why the SEC and ACC perennially send so many teams to bowl games, while the Big 12 can't always fill all of its bowls with teams. At the end of the season, when comparing strength of schedule, people usually mention 10-win teams and bowl teams, but never do you hear about the teams affected by those 5 extra, guaranteed losses. By shifting to 8 or, even better, 7 conference games, the Big 12 would put itself at a perfectly legal advantage.

Also, with 7 conference games, think about some of the rivalries college football could get back. Texas-Texas A&M, Oklahoma-Nebraska, West Virginia-Pitt, Kansas-Missouri, Texas-Arkansas. There would finally be plenty of room for these games to come back on a permanent basis, while still allowing room for a variety of other games to be worked in.

With that said, the Big 12 needs to divide back into 2 divisions, go to 7 conference games, and add a CCG to both earn more money and put itself in a better position among the Power 5. Finding a way to turn LHN into the Big 12 Network would be icing on the cake.