Texas Realignment Options - Part 4

Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.

Part 4 -- Join the ACC

1. Texas and Notre Dame join the ACC

The ACC currently ranks fifth among the Power 5 conferences in both TV and total revenues. What is the first step towards fixing this? Well, landing Texas and Notre Dame, the top two most valuable athletic programs in the nation, is certainly a great start. Every conference wants these two schools (sans maybe Texas for the SEC), but the ACC is the lucky winner.

Ideally, at least Oklahoma and Kansas would come along with Texas to provide geographic rivalries, but these schools simply have better options on the table. Plus, the Power 5 conferences are moving towards a Power 4 with 16-team conferences, and further expansion would put the ACC at 18 or 20.

Currently, the ACC earns $18M per school from ESPN for all TV rights. By adding Texas and Notre Dame, this would have to be renegotiated to a better value, as Texas is not going to be taking a pay cut. Considering the ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, and these two schools will only add to that, the conference could use this to its advantage. The large footprint, combined with Texas' Longhorn Network, would also help the ACC get its own network. Conveniently, ESPN owns both LHN and the rights to a future ACC Network. There should be no issues in turning LHN into ACC Network and eventually surpassing the income the SEC Network brings in. Yes, ESPN would have to renegotiate with the TV providers, but ESPN is the most powerful network of them all. The ACC should be able to reach $25M-$35M per year for each school, but it won't happen immediately.

Additionally, ACC schools earn the least amount of pay from the College Football Playoff. With the dissolution of the Big 12, the ACC has a chance to take the Big 12's spot (and the $40M that comes with it) in the Sugar Bowl. Combine that with the Orange Bowl's $27.5M payout and the $64.69M from the College Football Playoff, and ACC would each get $8.26M. That is a grand total of $33M-$43M per school, before NCAA Tournament revenues are added in.

4 divisions would be the best for this conference, but the conference could keep its current 2.

ACC

West - Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Texas

North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech

East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest

South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami

2. Oklahoma makes its pick

Oklahoma is the most sought after school after Texas and Notre Dame find their home. The Big Ten would be willing to waive the AAU requirement for the Sooners, while the SEC would love having another big brand. The Pac-12 wants OU, but the money simply isn't there without Texas. OU's options are complicated. The Big Ten and SEC both offer the most money and exposure. The SEC offers the football hotbed of the South, while the Big Ten offers the lesser recruiting ground of the North. Joining the SEC offers potential rivalries with Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and LSU. The Big Ten would allow Nebraska and Kansas, to go along with Michigan, Ohio St, and Penn St. Staying in the South is most important, though, and the current 8-game schedule would allow OU to keep both OSU and Texas on the permanent out-of-conference line-up. The SEC could eventually add a 9th game, but for now that factor makes the difference.

Kansas would listen to the Big Ten, but the appeal of the SEC is just too strong. Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and Georgia recruiting would help the football program, while the basketball program would be in annual showdowns with Kentucky.

2 divisions are more natural, so the SEC stick with East and West.

SEC

West - Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

East - Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

3. The Big Ten makes a tough decision

The Big Ten will not be happy and could move in a number of directions. West Virginia, UConn, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Houston, TCU, and Baylor are the only real options left, but all of them have flaws. Iowa St is the only AAU school, but the Big Ten already has Iowa. The rest are in markets that would expand the conference footprint, but lack on the research front in the classroom.

This call is really too tough for an outsider to make, but I'm going with WVU and KSU getting called up.

Big Ten

West - Illinois, Iowa, Kansas St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin

East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers, West Virginia

4. The Pac-12 cleans up

The Pac-12 would have a a few options left to expand. Oklahoma St and Texas Tech are the obvious choices. Then sits Iowa St, Baylor, TCU, Houston, BYU, and Boise St among bigger brands. BYU is the best program of all, with the largest fan base, but is a religious private school. I only believe the Pac-12 will allow a religious school in if it is, or would help land, Notre Dame. Since that is not an option at this point, Iowa St, Houston, and Boise St are the options remaining. Ultimately, Boise St brings in very little outside of a solid football program, so it does not get the call.

Pac-16

Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St

Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA

Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah

Central - Houston, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech

What could a Texas schedule look like?

Division Games - 3 - Played every season.

1. Notre Dame (home in even years)

2. Louisville (home in odd years)

3. Pittsburgh (home in even years)

Inter-division Games - 6 - Played every other season.

4. Boston College (even) or Syracuse (odd)

5. Virginia Tech (even) or Virginia (odd)

6. North Carolina St (even) or North Carolina (odd)

7. Duke (even) or Wake Forest (odd)

8. Georgia Tech (even) or Clemson (odd)

9. Florida St (even) or Miami (odd)

Out-of-Conference Games - 3

10. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)

11-12. Varying

Overview

This would cause problems on multiple fronts. First, Baylor and TCU fail to find a new home in the Power 5. The two could get together with the best brands left, including Boise St, BYU, and Cincinnati to create a new conference, or could float as Independents. Neither is as desirable as joining one of the top 4 conferences, and the pay reflects that. I would expect these two schools to sue the other former Big 12 schools for the Grant of Rights and exit fees.

For Texas, there is no guarantee the ACC would pay as much as the current Big 12, so this isn't a great choice. Being aligned without any in-state rivals is problematic, and the lack of intriguing games for Longhorn fans could turn them off.