Part 2 -- Join the SEC
1. Texas and Oklahoma join the Southeastern Conference
The Southeastern Conference is an ideal location for the Texas Longhorns. Being paired with the school's three most-historic rivals of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas A&M would be huge for Texas. Sure, the annual games against Texas Tech, Baylor, and now TCU would be discontinued, but Texas would be in the same conference as its top three rivals for the first time since…1919. The advantage Texas A&M currently carries in recruiting would be erased, which is a big bonus. The lower academic standards of the SEC are not ideal, but that is one of the few downsides of making this move.
The most important question is how could this happen? Current rumors suggest a gentlemen's agreement among the institutions that solely represent their state within the SEC, where they will vote to block another school from one of those states from entering the conference. Needing a ¾ majority for the conference to extend an invitation, that protects Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida from having to compete with in-state rivals in the SEC. Currently at 14 schools, the SEC needs 11 votes to add institutions, and those 4 can block whomever they want.
However, realignment is nearing its end if Texas and OU are seriously on the table, as there will be four 16-team conferences, likely keeping the 65 Power 5 schools intact. The SEC already has Texas A&M, but I'm not certain the Aggies could block Texas' admission, partially because it is one of the newest additions. The SEC has to weigh its options on what schools they could get outside of Texas, and if OU is a packaged deal (as widely believed), the SEC could have an all-or-nothing situation on its hands. The two Mississippi, two Alabama, and two Tennessee schools would almost certainly vote in Texas' favor. While the 4-school pact in the east would hate to have schools added in their states, it is highly unlikely to ever be considered, as the league is more interested into expanding into new markets. Basically, if ACC schools could be added, North Carolina and Virginia are more important than Florida St and Clemson because they would add to the SEC Network's revenue. But going to 16 now would prevent those schools from even becoming options down the road, so I can see those 4 votes being in favor of Texas. If Missouri is still around, one would have to believe they would love getting to play in Texas more often, so they would likely vote yes; if they are no longer in the SEC, only 10 votes would be needed.
Another key thing I should mention is why OU would allow this to be a packaged deal with Texas. OU knows how important the Texas game is to the program, the school, and its fans. Joining the SEC without Texas (or without Texas' consent) could alienate Texas in a way Texas A&M similarly did, but it could be much worse. Texas could replace OU with Arkansas or Texas A&M, but OU would be hard-pressed to get Nebraska back on the schedule annually or build a big rivalry up with Arkansas. Also, there is the fact that OU will have difficulty going anywhere without OSU joining along. If OU is able to do that, it could alienate its other rival too. A schedule without Texas and OSU on it would cause backlash from fans and boosters. So it is safe to say that the only way OU is going to join the SEC is with Texas' consent, and in this scenario, Texas only gives consent if Texas gets to join too.
The final question is whether Missouri stays or West Virginia replaces them. With Texas and OU in the fold, Missouri will certainly be placed in a western division of some sort, granting annual access to the southwest for recruiting. But with that comes increased competition. Bolting for the Big Ten would place Missouri with its main rival, similar midwest schools, and a far easier football conference. This is a toss-up, so I will project Missouri to stay. (Honestly, if the SEC could get Kansas and OU, it would be perfect for Missouri, but that just isn't an option.)
Now, the SEC currently has the SEC Network, which is owned by ESPN. Texas has the Longhorn Network, also owned by ESPN. 16 schools could be a little much for one station to cover, as there are plenty of SEC Network alternates right now. It is certainly possible that ESPN could somehow turn LHN into a second SEC Network, perhaps for the schools in the west.
The money will be good, too. The SEC is set to average $25M per school through the life of its TV contracts with CBS and ESPN. The SEC Network could bring in $10M per school very school, while the College Football Playoff and Sugar Bowl will bring in just under $10M per school under this scenario. $45M before factoring in NCAA Tournament and other bowl pay is excellent.
Creating 2 divisions is easy, while 4 is very difficult. I will stick with 2 divisions here.
The most important question is how could this happen? Current rumors suggest a gentlemen's agreement among the institutions that solely represent their state within the SEC, where they will vote to block another school from one of those states from entering the conference. Needing a ¾ majority for the conference to extend an invitation, that protects Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida from having to compete with in-state rivals in the SEC. Currently at 14 schools, the SEC needs 11 votes to add institutions, and those 4 can block whomever they want.
However, realignment is nearing its end if Texas and OU are seriously on the table, as there will be four 16-team conferences, likely keeping the 65 Power 5 schools intact. The SEC already has Texas A&M, but I'm not certain the Aggies could block Texas' admission, partially because it is one of the newest additions. The SEC has to weigh its options on what schools they could get outside of Texas, and if OU is a packaged deal (as widely believed), the SEC could have an all-or-nothing situation on its hands. The two Mississippi, two Alabama, and two Tennessee schools would almost certainly vote in Texas' favor. While the 4-school pact in the east would hate to have schools added in their states, it is highly unlikely to ever be considered, as the league is more interested into expanding into new markets. Basically, if ACC schools could be added, North Carolina and Virginia are more important than Florida St and Clemson because they would add to the SEC Network's revenue. But going to 16 now would prevent those schools from even becoming options down the road, so I can see those 4 votes being in favor of Texas. If Missouri is still around, one would have to believe they would love getting to play in Texas more often, so they would likely vote yes; if they are no longer in the SEC, only 10 votes would be needed.
Another key thing I should mention is why OU would allow this to be a packaged deal with Texas. OU knows how important the Texas game is to the program, the school, and its fans. Joining the SEC without Texas (or without Texas' consent) could alienate Texas in a way Texas A&M similarly did, but it could be much worse. Texas could replace OU with Arkansas or Texas A&M, but OU would be hard-pressed to get Nebraska back on the schedule annually or build a big rivalry up with Arkansas. Also, there is the fact that OU will have difficulty going anywhere without OSU joining along. If OU is able to do that, it could alienate its other rival too. A schedule without Texas and OSU on it would cause backlash from fans and boosters. So it is safe to say that the only way OU is going to join the SEC is with Texas' consent, and in this scenario, Texas only gives consent if Texas gets to join too.
The final question is whether Missouri stays or West Virginia replaces them. With Texas and OU in the fold, Missouri will certainly be placed in a western division of some sort, granting annual access to the southwest for recruiting. But with that comes increased competition. Bolting for the Big Ten would place Missouri with its main rival, similar midwest schools, and a far easier football conference. This is a toss-up, so I will project Missouri to stay. (Honestly, if the SEC could get Kansas and OU, it would be perfect for Missouri, but that just isn't an option.)
Now, the SEC currently has the SEC Network, which is owned by ESPN. Texas has the Longhorn Network, also owned by ESPN. 16 schools could be a little much for one station to cover, as there are plenty of SEC Network alternates right now. It is certainly possible that ESPN could somehow turn LHN into a second SEC Network, perhaps for the schools in the west.
The money will be good, too. The SEC is set to average $25M per school through the life of its TV contracts with CBS and ESPN. The SEC Network could bring in $10M per school very school, while the College Football Playoff and Sugar Bowl will bring in just under $10M per school under this scenario. $45M before factoring in NCAA Tournament and other bowl pay is excellent.
Creating 2 divisions is easy, while 4 is very difficult. I will stick with 2 divisions here.
SEC
West - Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
East - Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
2. The Big Ten gets its pick
Missouri staying in the SEC will not make the Big Ten happy. Sure, Kansas is highly coveted, but there is not an ideal partner to get the conference to 16 schools. The Big Ten could call Vanderbilt, but will likely receive the same answer Missouri gave. The ACC schools, with their $50M buyout and Grant of TV Rights through 2027, are assumed to be out of reach. This leaves two options: add AAU member Iowa St or non-AAU member West Virginia. Since West Virginia expands the conference's footprint, it gets the nod.
The BTN expands into West Virginia and Kansas.
Again, the conference could choose either 2 or 4 divisions. Since geography is not on our side, I'll simply go for 2 divisions.
The BTN expands into West Virginia and Kansas.
Again, the conference could choose either 2 or 4 divisions. Since geography is not on our side, I'll simply go for 2 divisions.
Big Ten
West - Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers, West Virginia
3. The Pac-12 comes to the rescue
Oklahoma St and Texas Tech don't have the best academic prowess out there, but they are high-profile programs that would bring the Pac-12 into new territory. Kansas St and Iowa St don't have as big of brand names as those two, but are still very solid. These 4 programs might be considered leftovers, but going west could provide them plenty of opportunities to break out of the shadows of their in-state rivals, similar to what Texas A&M started to do after joining the SEC in 2012. The only disadvantage here is that the Pac-12, the "Conference of Champions," is located on the west coast and can sometimes be overlooked.
TCU and Baylor, as mentioned in Part 1, are fledging programs. These two are currently bigger brands than the other four, but are tiny private schools. The Pac-12 has unstated rules about not adding religious schools, and with other viable options available, these two don't make much sense out west.
Houston has to also be considered. Now that TCU is in a Power conference, Houston has essentially replaced them by following a similar path in the Group of 5. A brand new stadium and arena have been built, and the football program was perhaps the best in the state in 2015. While the great basketball program for the 1980s and 1990s has fallen off, the potential is still there. Houston is a huge football market, so this would be a great add for the Pac-12 if it is willing to take a risk. It took one with Utah in 2011, and that move is beginning to look good. Houston has an even higher ceiling than Utah. Still, I am not certain if the Pac-12 will look at this school. If Iowa St makes it into the Big Ten, then Houston gets in. But I don't see that happening here.
TCU and Baylor, as mentioned in Part 1, are fledging programs. These two are currently bigger brands than the other four, but are tiny private schools. The Pac-12 has unstated rules about not adding religious schools, and with other viable options available, these two don't make much sense out west.
Houston has to also be considered. Now that TCU is in a Power conference, Houston has essentially replaced them by following a similar path in the Group of 5. A brand new stadium and arena have been built, and the football program was perhaps the best in the state in 2015. While the great basketball program for the 1980s and 1990s has fallen off, the potential is still there. Houston is a huge football market, so this would be a great add for the Pac-12 if it is willing to take a risk. It took one with Utah in 2011, and that move is beginning to look good. Houston has an even higher ceiling than Utah. Still, I am not certain if the Pac-12 will look at this school. If Iowa St makes it into the Big Ten, then Houston gets in. But I don't see that happening here.
Pac-16
Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St
Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA
Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah
Central - Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech
4. The ACC happily takes the scraps
The same scenario takes place for the ACC. TCU and Baylor are added.
No divisions would be needed for the 17-team league in non-football sports, but 2 or 4 would work well in football.
ACC
West - Baylor, Louisville, Pittsburgh, TCU
North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest
South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami
What could a Texas schedule look like?
Division Games - 7 - Played every season.
1. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)
2. Arkansas (home in odd years)
3. Texas A&M (home in even years)
4. LSU (home in odd years)
5. Missouri (home in even years)
6. Mississippi (home in odd years)
7. Mississippi St (home in even years)
4. LSU (home in odd years)
5. Missouri (home in even years)
6. Mississippi (home in odd years)
7. Mississippi St (home in even years)
Inter-division Games - 2 - Played every 4th season
8. Alabama (odd) or Auburn (odd) or Tennessee (even) or Vanderbilt (even)
9. Florida (even) or Georgia (even) or South Carolina (odd) or Kentucky (odd)
9. Florida (even) or Georgia (even) or South Carolina (odd) or Kentucky (odd)
Out-of-Conference Games - 3
10-12. Varying
Overview
Once again, this would be great for every Big 12 school, as they all find new homes within the Power 5. It is disappointing for schools like Cincinnati, Houston, BYU, Boise St, or any other in the Group of 5 conferences, and even more so now that there are only 4 Power conferences with a 4-team playoff. Perhaps this sparks the break away for a third football subdivision in Division 1, allowing the Group of 5 to have their own playoff.
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