The NBA currently has 2 conferences, each with 3 divisions of 5 teams, for a total of 30 teams. For the schedule, each team plays its 4 divisional opponents 4 times each (16 total games), 6 intra-conference teams 4 times each (24 total games), the other 4 intra-conference teams 3 times each (12 total games), and the 15 inter-conference opponents 2 times each (30 total games). This yields an 82-game schedule, with 41 home and 41 away games. For the playoffs, the 3 division champions and 5 next-best teams in each conference qualify.
However, there is a large problem: the Western Conference has dominated the Eastern Conference so much in inter-conference play for the better part of the past decade that playing in the East is an unfair advantage; several Western Conference teams could've qualified for the playoffs in the other conference, but missed it in the West, while every season there are Eastern conference teams with sub-.500 records qualifying for the playoffs. With LeBron James playing in the Western Conference for the first time ever, and considering he represented the Eastern Conference for 8 straight seasons, how can we fix the issue of a lack of balance?
First of all, I suggest eliminating the 2 conferences altogether. That would yield a single 30-team conference.
Now for the schedule. Since an 82-game schedule isn't evenly divisible by 29 teams, the NBA would need to get creative with its scheduling formula. Playing every team home-and-home is of utmost importance, so we have 58 of the 82 games accounted for. One thing the NFL does to really help out its struggling franchises is give the worst teams the easiest schedules. Since the NBA has more teams that consistently struggle than the NFL, this would be a good addition for the Association. For this, we take the past season's results, then place the 30 teams into 3 even tiers. Teams in each tier then play the 9 other teams 2 additional times each (18 total games). That brings the total up to 76 games accounted for. Also important in nearly every sport is the regional rivalries. To preserve these, every team would then play their 3 biggest rivals 2 additional times each (6 total games) to reach the desired 82-game tally.
So for a single team, you will play your closest rivals at least 4 times each, everyone else at least 2 times each, then 2 additional times for the 9 teams in the respective tier. This increases high-profile match-ups and gives more even match-ups across the board, which will help ratings and ticket sales.
The Regional Rivalries:
Atlanta: Charlotte, Miami, Orlando
Boston: New York, Philadelphia, Toronto
Brooklyn: Miami, New York, Washington
Charlotte: Atlanta, Orlando, Washington
Chicago: Milwaukee, Minnesota, Indiana
Cleveland: Detroit, Indiana, Toronto
Dallas: Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio
Denver: Portland, Phoenix, Utah
Detroit: Cleveland, Indiana, Toronto
Golden State: LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Sacramento
Houston: Dallas, New Orleans, San Antonio
Indiana: Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit
LA Clippers: Golden State, LA Lakers, Sacramento
LA Lakers: Golden State, LA Clippers, Phoenix
Miami: Atlanta, Brooklyn, Orlando
Memphis: Milwaukee, New Orleans, Oklahoma City
Milwaukee: Chicago, Memphis, Minnesota
Minnesota: Chicago, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City
New Orleans: Houston, Memphis, San Antonio
New York: Boston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia
Oklahoma City: Dallas, Memphis, Minnesota
Orlando: Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami
Philadelphia: Boston, New York, Washington
Phoenix: Denver, LA Lakers, Utah
Portland: Denver, Sacramento, Utah
Sacramento: Golden State, LA Clippers, Portland
San Antonio: Dallas, Houston, New Orleans
Toronto: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit
Utah: Arizona, Denver, Portland
Washington: Brooklyn, Charlotte, Philadelphia
Playoff Seedings:
Take the top 16 seeds. That eliminates sub-.500 teams from entering the playoffs in most seasons, and ensures that the best make it.
For the All-Star Game:
Follow the NHL and have the fans vote for 2 captains that draft their teams.
Example: 2018-19 Dallas Mavericks Schedule Based off of the 2017-18 Standings:
Dallas finished 2017-18 in 27th place, placing it in the bottom tier.
2018 Schedule:
-Tier 3 Teams: Atlanta, Brooklyn, Chicago, LA Lakers, Memphis, New York, Orlando, Phoenix, Sacramento (4 games each, 36 total)
-Rivals: Houston, Oklahoma City, San Antonio (4 games each, 12 total)
-Everyone Else: 17 remaining teams (2 games each, 34 total)
36+12+34=82 Game Season
Friday, July 6, 2018
Monday, March 14, 2016
CFB: 2016 March Madness Bracket
Ever wonder what a 64-team playoff would look like in College Football? Well, as absurd as it sounds, and as much as Mike Leach clamors for it, it isn't happening. But I've got you covered. The following models the process for NCAA Basketball, with 4 regions and 16 seeds per region, and is based off the final regular season standings from 2015. The College Football Playoff Top 25 decides the top teams, followed by the remaining teams in the final regular season AP and Coaches Polls, and then my judgement is used for the rest. Going in order of rank, teams are assigned to their closest region, with adjustments made along the way to ensure no two teams from the same conference meet in the first two rounds. Finally, I give my predictions on how the tournament might've finished. Hope you enjoy!
9 Mississippi St @ 8 Bowling Green
12 Cal @ 5 Houston
13 North Carolina St @ 4 Michigan
14 Southern Miss @ 3 Florida St
11 Toledo @ 6 Navy
10 South Florida @ 7 Georgia
15 Kansas St @ 2 Ohio St
Clemson easily takes care of Arizona St at home. Mississippi St sneaks past Bowling Green despite having to play up north. Houston throttles Cal. Michigan beats NCSU in a close one. Florida St beats Southern Miss handily. Navy beats Toledo in a fun matchup. South Florida upsets Georgia. Despite having the Wizard on its sideline, KSU can't hang with Ohio St in the second half.
9 Memphis @ 8 BYU
12 Miami @ 5 Florida
13 Georgia Southern @ 4 Oklahoma St
14 Louisiana Tech @ 3 North Carolina
11 West Virginia @ 6 Tennessee
10 Arkansas St @ 7 Southern Cal
15 Cincinnati @ 2 Iowa
Alabama has a close scare in Frank Beamer's final game at Virginia Tech, but still wins. Memphis beats BYU in a wild bowl rematch. Miami upsets Florida in a rivalry game. Georgia Southern beats the highest seed so far in Oklahoma St. North Carolina takes care of LaTech. West Virginia is criminally underseeded, but Tennessee finally closes a close game to keep its hot streak alive. Southern Cal and Iowa both win despite tough, close games.
9 Arkansas @ 8 Washington St
12 Texas Tech @ 5 Utah
13 Marshall @ 4 Northwestern
14 Northern Illinois @ 3 Ole Miss
11 Pittsburgh @ 6 Temple
10 Appalachian St @ 7 Wisconsin
15 Washington @ 2 Notre Dame
Michigan St runs past New Mexico. Arkansas just can't handle playing in the Great Northwest, as Wazzu pulls out the win. Texas Tech routs Utah. Northwestern stifles Marshall's great offense. Ole Miss is held to a season-low in points, but still beats NIU. Temple takes care of Pittsburgh in one of the most intriguing first-round games. Appalachian St makes a statement by sneaking past Wisconsin. And Notre Dame beats Washington by 2 touchdowns.
9 UCLA @ 8 San Diego St
12 Duke @ 5 Baylor
13 Penn St @ 4 Oregon
14 Air Force @ 3 TCU
11 Louisville @ 6 LSU
10 Texas A&M @ 7 Western Kentucky
15 Boise St @ 2 Stanford
Oklahoma stomps Auburn. San Diego St finally turns heads by beating in-state UCLA. Despite Duke's improvement, it can't stop Baylor's rushing attack. Oregon has its QB, so it easily beats Penn St. TCU and Air Force renew an old rivalry, but TCU's coaches know exactly how to shut down the option. In a battle with little scoring, LSU rides its RB to victory. Western Kentucky also makes noise with a 3 touchdown win vs a stagnating Texas A&M. Stanford beats BSU in the trenches and on the scoreboard.
5 Houston @ 4 Michigan
6 Navy @ 3 Florida St
10 South Florida @ 2 Ohio St
Mississippi St keeps it close for a half, but Clemson pulls away to an easy victory. Houston proves it is the real deal with a double-digit win in Ann Arbor. Florida St is prepared for Navy's attack, leading to a lopsided victory. South Florida can't hang with Ohio St after its big first-round win.
13 Georgia Southern @ 12 Miami
6 Tennessee @ 3 North Carolina
7 Southern Cal @ 2 Iowa
Memphis also hangs close to Alabama, but the Tide is too deep to lose just yet. Georgia Southern upholds its Cinderella status as it dances to round 3. Despite North Carolina's offense, Tennessee is the hotter team and it shows. Southern Cal blows a 2-touchdown halftime lead to lose by 10 points to Iowa.
12 Texas Tech @ 4 Northwestern
6 Temple @ 3 Ole Miss
10 Appalachian St @ 2 Notre Dame
Washington St scores more points than anyone against Michigan St, but MSU puts together a 97-yard drive to win with just seconds remaining. Texas Tech also puts up season-high points on Northwestern in route to an easy win. Notre Dame shuts down App St to advance.
5 Baylor @ 4 Oregon
6 LSU @ 3 TCU
7 Western Kentucky @ 2 Stanford
Oklahoma faces a surging SDSU squad, but wins pretty easily. Baylor and Oregon have the craziest uniform combinations and most yards for any game in quite some time, as Baylor rushes past Oregon in a must-see matchup. TCU and LSU play a tight game, but TCU gets a miracle win from its backup QB. WKU puts up a valiant effort, but can't stop Stanford's McCaffrey.
3 Florida St @ 2 Ohio St
Houston and Clemson could be playing in the National Championship, but DeShaun Watson makes a difference late to stay undefeated. Florida St can't throw the ball enough to beat Ohio St.
6 Tennessee @ 2 Iowa
Georgia Southern tries to slay the beast of Alabama, but the tide rolls. Tennessee spots Iowa an early lead, but Iowa can't hold on for the win this time.
3 Ole Miss @ 2 Notre Dame
Texas Tech narrowly missed an epic battle against Wazzu, but isn't physical enough to hang with Michigan St. Notre Dame gets blown away thanks to Ole Miss' defense.
3 TCU @ 2 Stanford
Baylor doesn't have a healthy enough QB to beat Oklahoma, but they still provide a challenge in a Big 12 rematch. While TCU shows grit, Stanford is just too good to be stopped.
In another potential National Championship game, Clemson routs Ohio St as Urban Meyer is stumped.
In the first SEC rematch, Tennessee goes into Bryant-Denny again, but wins a close game this time.
Michigan St runs out of luck as Ole Miss keeps its hot streak alive.
Oklahoma might be the better team, but defensive breakdowns allow Stanford to steal this game.
2 Stanford vs 3 Ole Miss (@ Arlington)
While Tennessee and Ole Miss are both riding waves of momentum, Clemson and Stanford are simply more complete teams and win handily.
In a quest for 19-0, Clemson has one too many defensive breakdowns as Stanford shocks the world to win the National Championship!
Well, what do you guys think? Can't wait to do this again next year!
Round 1: Round of 64
East
16 Arizona St @ 1 Clemson9 Mississippi St @ 8 Bowling Green
12 Cal @ 5 Houston
13 North Carolina St @ 4 Michigan
14 Southern Miss @ 3 Florida St
11 Toledo @ 6 Navy
10 South Florida @ 7 Georgia
15 Kansas St @ 2 Ohio St
Clemson easily takes care of Arizona St at home. Mississippi St sneaks past Bowling Green despite having to play up north. Houston throttles Cal. Michigan beats NCSU in a close one. Florida St beats Southern Miss handily. Navy beats Toledo in a fun matchup. South Florida upsets Georgia. Despite having the Wizard on its sideline, KSU can't hang with Ohio St in the second half.
South
16 Virgnia Tech @ 1 Alabama9 Memphis @ 8 BYU
12 Miami @ 5 Florida
13 Georgia Southern @ 4 Oklahoma St
14 Louisiana Tech @ 3 North Carolina
11 West Virginia @ 6 Tennessee
10 Arkansas St @ 7 Southern Cal
15 Cincinnati @ 2 Iowa
Alabama has a close scare in Frank Beamer's final game at Virginia Tech, but still wins. Memphis beats BYU in a wild bowl rematch. Miami upsets Florida in a rivalry game. Georgia Southern beats the highest seed so far in Oklahoma St. North Carolina takes care of LaTech. West Virginia is criminally underseeded, but Tennessee finally closes a close game to keep its hot streak alive. Southern Cal and Iowa both win despite tough, close games.
North
16 New Mexico @ 1 Michigan St9 Arkansas @ 8 Washington St
12 Texas Tech @ 5 Utah
13 Marshall @ 4 Northwestern
14 Northern Illinois @ 3 Ole Miss
11 Pittsburgh @ 6 Temple
10 Appalachian St @ 7 Wisconsin
15 Washington @ 2 Notre Dame
Michigan St runs past New Mexico. Arkansas just can't handle playing in the Great Northwest, as Wazzu pulls out the win. Texas Tech routs Utah. Northwestern stifles Marshall's great offense. Ole Miss is held to a season-low in points, but still beats NIU. Temple takes care of Pittsburgh in one of the most intriguing first-round games. Appalachian St makes a statement by sneaking past Wisconsin. And Notre Dame beats Washington by 2 touchdowns.
West
16 Auburn @ 1 Oklahoma9 UCLA @ 8 San Diego St
12 Duke @ 5 Baylor
13 Penn St @ 4 Oregon
14 Air Force @ 3 TCU
11 Louisville @ 6 LSU
10 Texas A&M @ 7 Western Kentucky
15 Boise St @ 2 Stanford
Oklahoma stomps Auburn. San Diego St finally turns heads by beating in-state UCLA. Despite Duke's improvement, it can't stop Baylor's rushing attack. Oregon has its QB, so it easily beats Penn St. TCU and Air Force renew an old rivalry, but TCU's coaches know exactly how to shut down the option. In a battle with little scoring, LSU rides its RB to victory. Western Kentucky also makes noise with a 3 touchdown win vs a stagnating Texas A&M. Stanford beats BSU in the trenches and on the scoreboard.
Round 2: Round of 32
East
9 Mississippi St @ 1 Clemson5 Houston @ 4 Michigan
6 Navy @ 3 Florida St
10 South Florida @ 2 Ohio St
Mississippi St keeps it close for a half, but Clemson pulls away to an easy victory. Houston proves it is the real deal with a double-digit win in Ann Arbor. Florida St is prepared for Navy's attack, leading to a lopsided victory. South Florida can't hang with Ohio St after its big first-round win.
South
9 Memphis @ 1 Alabama13 Georgia Southern @ 12 Miami
6 Tennessee @ 3 North Carolina
7 Southern Cal @ 2 Iowa
Memphis also hangs close to Alabama, but the Tide is too deep to lose just yet. Georgia Southern upholds its Cinderella status as it dances to round 3. Despite North Carolina's offense, Tennessee is the hotter team and it shows. Southern Cal blows a 2-touchdown halftime lead to lose by 10 points to Iowa.
North
8 Washington St @ 1 Michigan St12 Texas Tech @ 4 Northwestern
6 Temple @ 3 Ole Miss
10 Appalachian St @ 2 Notre Dame
Washington St scores more points than anyone against Michigan St, but MSU puts together a 97-yard drive to win with just seconds remaining. Texas Tech also puts up season-high points on Northwestern in route to an easy win. Notre Dame shuts down App St to advance.
West
8 San Diego St @ 1 Oklahoma5 Baylor @ 4 Oregon
6 LSU @ 3 TCU
7 Western Kentucky @ 2 Stanford
Oklahoma faces a surging SDSU squad, but wins pretty easily. Baylor and Oregon have the craziest uniform combinations and most yards for any game in quite some time, as Baylor rushes past Oregon in a must-see matchup. TCU and LSU play a tight game, but TCU gets a miracle win from its backup QB. WKU puts up a valiant effort, but can't stop Stanford's McCaffrey.
Round 3: Sweet 16
East
5 Houston @ 1 Clemson3 Florida St @ 2 Ohio St
Houston and Clemson could be playing in the National Championship, but DeShaun Watson makes a difference late to stay undefeated. Florida St can't throw the ball enough to beat Ohio St.
South
13 Georgia Southern @ 1 Alabama6 Tennessee @ 2 Iowa
Georgia Southern tries to slay the beast of Alabama, but the tide rolls. Tennessee spots Iowa an early lead, but Iowa can't hold on for the win this time.
North
12 Texas Tech @ 1 Michigan St3 Ole Miss @ 2 Notre Dame
Texas Tech narrowly missed an epic battle against Wazzu, but isn't physical enough to hang with Michigan St. Notre Dame gets blown away thanks to Ole Miss' defense.
West
5 Baylor @ 1 Oklahoma3 TCU @ 2 Stanford
Baylor doesn't have a healthy enough QB to beat Oklahoma, but they still provide a challenge in a Big 12 rematch. While TCU shows grit, Stanford is just too good to be stopped.
Round 4: Elite 8
East
2 Ohio St @ 1 Clemson (@ Miami)In another potential National Championship game, Clemson routs Ohio St as Urban Meyer is stumped.
South
6 Tennessee @ 1 Alabama (@ New Orleans)In the first SEC rematch, Tennessee goes into Bryant-Denny again, but wins a close game this time.
North
3 Ole Miss @ 1 Michigan St (@ Detroit)Michigan St runs out of luck as Ole Miss keeps its hot streak alive.
West
2 Stanford @ 1 Oklahoma (@ Pasadena)Oklahoma might be the better team, but defensive breakdowns allow Stanford to steal this game.
Round 5: Final 4
1 Clemson vs 6 Tennessee (@ Atlanta)2 Stanford vs 3 Ole Miss (@ Arlington)
While Tennessee and Ole Miss are both riding waves of momentum, Clemson and Stanford are simply more complete teams and win handily.
Round 6: National Championship
1 Clemson vs 2 Stanford (@ Glendale)In a quest for 19-0, Clemson has one too many defensive breakdowns as Stanford shocks the world to win the National Championship!
Well, what do you guys think? Can't wait to do this again next year!
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Texas Realignment Options - Part 7
Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.
Part 7 -- Recap
Over the past 6 entries, I have discussed every realignment option for the Texas Longhorns, and the repercussions each would bring. But which one is best? There are a few categories I'll use to determine this: Academics, Revenues, Rivalries, and Travel.
1. Big Ten
2. Pac-16
T-3. ACC
T-3. Independent
5. Big 12
6. SEC
T-1. Big 12
T-1. Big Ten
T-1. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Independent
6. ACC
For revenues, I will use information I know. The Big Ten has long been the leader, but the SEC has recently caught up. The Big 12 is and will likely stay in 3rd place. However, Texas' Longhorn Network contract boosts the option of the Big 12 up to number 1. While Texas brings in more TV revenue than any of the other conferences, it is possible they get close or catch up, which is why I'll let this one be a tie. The Pac-12 Networks' struggles are holding it back, as it earns similar guaranteed pay as the Big 12 currently does, and would only add to that if Texas came over. As an Independent, Texas could keep its place at the top in revenues, but it could also not. Since this is hard to project, I place Independence behind "sure things' of the top 4 conferences. The ACC is currently so far behind that it doesn't seem likely it will catch up to what the others can offer.
1. Independent
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Big Ten
6. ACC
While obligations with the ACC might prevent Texas from scheduling every local school every single season, Texas would still be able to keep its top rivalries and gain back lost ones as an Independent. The Big 12 provides Texas a chance to play 6 local schools every season (if A&M is put back on the schedule), more than any other conference would allow. The SEC allows Texas to play it's 3 biggest rivals in conference play. The Pac-16 keeps minor rivals, such as Texas Tech and Oklahoma St, to go along with major rivals like Oklahoma and A&M (out of conference). The Big Ten is slightly better than the ACC because Texas would keep OU in conference play, realign with the much-hated Nebraska, and get to play A&M, Arkansas, or Tech outside of Big Ten play. The ACC offers Texas a chance to play Notre Dame every season. However, it would be difficult for Texas to keep more than 1 regional rivalry.
1. Independent
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Big Ten
6. ACC
Independence allows Texas the ability to create its own schedule outside of its 4 ACC opponents. Those 2 away games every season aren't bad, while Texas can put the rest together. Not bad at all. Travel in the Big 12 would be great to the schools both near and far, as there are 8 schools either in the state or along the I-35 corridor and the remaining 7 wouldn't be every year occurrences (2 trips per year). The SEC would also be pretty good, with OU, Arkansas, and LSU close by. The other schools are a bit further away, but most aren't much further than Iowa St would be. The Pac-16 would provide a perfect balance of travel, complete with beautiful destinations. Annual trips to the Northeast, California, and the Mountain Time Zone aren't too bad, but Tech, OU, and OSU keeps travel close too. The Big Ten beats out the ACC thanks to having OU and 6 other schools in the Central Time Zone in the division. The ACC travel might not be as far as the Pac-16's, but there are simply no close games, with Georgia Tech and Louisville being closest to Austin.
1. Independent (35 points)
2. Big 12 (34 points)
3. Big Ten (30 points)
T-4. SEC (28 points)
T-4. Pac-16 (28 points)
6. ACC (13 points)
The scale is 2 points for 6th place and 12 points for 1st place, splitting the difference for ties. The conferences are then ranked by their points totals. I believe each of these 4 categories provide the most important aspects to look at. Others such as added recruiting footprint and media visibility are important too, but I wouldn't place their value as high as these 4. Plus, there isn't much difference in recruiting turf, outside of the Big Ten, and only the Pac-16 is on the west coast for poor visibility.
Actually, I personally do not care about academic reputation. Removing that criteria, the rankings would be as follows:
1. Big 12 (30 points)
2. Independent (28 points)
3. SEC (26 points)
T-4. Pac-16 (18 points)
T-4. Big Ten (18 points)
6. ACC (6 points)
Those rankings closely reflect my personal choices. I think keeping the Big 12 together should be the goal and have laid out the perfect scheme to do so. The SEC is my second favorite because it allows Texas to compete head-to-head with its 3 biggest rivals and has nice travel. The Pac-16 is the only other conference I would consider moving to, as the teams Texas would play are interesting. The Big Ten and ACC would isolate Texas too much, and it would be hard to maintain a grasp on the state by not playing local schools regularly. Independence is a wild card. The revenues are unknown at this point and it could hurt Texas' chances at making the College Football Playoff when there are only 4 power conferences. On the flip side, the schedule would allow Texas to play interesting games every single week and possibly keep LHN.
What do you guys think?
Academics
1. Big Ten
2. Pac-16
T-3. ACC
T-3. Independent
5. Big 12
6. SEC
The Big Ten, with its AAU guidelines, is clearly the best academic conference. After it is either the Pac-16, which boasts great universities all along the coast and in Arizona and Colorado. The ACC and Independent (as a part of the ACC) follow, as Notre Dame, Pitt, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Duke are all great schools. Next is the Big 12, which would have Kansas, Iowa St, Georgia Tech, and Pitt as the notable academic institutions. Last is the SEC, where Florida, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Texas A&M just aren't enough to counter just how bad some schools are in the heart of the conference.
Revenues
T-1. Big 12
T-1. Big Ten
T-1. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Independent
6. ACC
Rivalries
1. Independent
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Big Ten
6. ACC
Travel
1. Independent
2. Big 12
3. SEC
4. Pac-16
5. Big Ten
6. ACC
Independence allows Texas the ability to create its own schedule outside of its 4 ACC opponents. Those 2 away games every season aren't bad, while Texas can put the rest together. Not bad at all. Travel in the Big 12 would be great to the schools both near and far, as there are 8 schools either in the state or along the I-35 corridor and the remaining 7 wouldn't be every year occurrences (2 trips per year). The SEC would also be pretty good, with OU, Arkansas, and LSU close by. The other schools are a bit further away, but most aren't much further than Iowa St would be. The Pac-16 would provide a perfect balance of travel, complete with beautiful destinations. Annual trips to the Northeast, California, and the Mountain Time Zone aren't too bad, but Tech, OU, and OSU keeps travel close too. The Big Ten beats out the ACC thanks to having OU and 6 other schools in the Central Time Zone in the division. The ACC travel might not be as far as the Pac-16's, but there are simply no close games, with Georgia Tech and Louisville being closest to Austin.
Overall Average
1. Independent (35 points)
2. Big 12 (34 points)
3. Big Ten (30 points)
T-4. SEC (28 points)
T-4. Pac-16 (28 points)
6. ACC (13 points)
The scale is 2 points for 6th place and 12 points for 1st place, splitting the difference for ties. The conferences are then ranked by their points totals. I believe each of these 4 categories provide the most important aspects to look at. Others such as added recruiting footprint and media visibility are important too, but I wouldn't place their value as high as these 4. Plus, there isn't much difference in recruiting turf, outside of the Big Ten, and only the Pac-16 is on the west coast for poor visibility.
Actually, I personally do not care about academic reputation. Removing that criteria, the rankings would be as follows:
1. Big 12 (30 points)
2. Independent (28 points)
3. SEC (26 points)
T-4. Pac-16 (18 points)
T-4. Big Ten (18 points)
6. ACC (6 points)
Those rankings closely reflect my personal choices. I think keeping the Big 12 together should be the goal and have laid out the perfect scheme to do so. The SEC is my second favorite because it allows Texas to compete head-to-head with its 3 biggest rivals and has nice travel. The Pac-16 is the only other conference I would consider moving to, as the teams Texas would play are interesting. The Big Ten and ACC would isolate Texas too much, and it would be hard to maintain a grasp on the state by not playing local schools regularly. Independence is a wild card. The revenues are unknown at this point and it could hurt Texas' chances at making the College Football Playoff when there are only 4 power conferences. On the flip side, the schedule would allow Texas to play interesting games every single week and possibly keep LHN.
What do you guys think?
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Texas Realignment Options - Part 6
Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.
Part 6 -- Expand the Big 12
1. Texas and Oklahoma keep everyone together
Big 12 schools currently earn the 4th-most from the top two tiers of TV rights, coming in behind the Big Ten (rumored to be at least $25M), SEC ($25M), and Pac-12 ($21M). However, the Pac-12 only makes more because of its conference championship game, something the Big 12 doesn't have yet, but could, and would add at least $2M to each school. Meanwhile, coming in a distant 5th is the ACC, which averages only $18M per school for all TV rights.
If the Power 5 conferences get slimmed down to 4, the battle for the last spot will be between the ACC and Big 12. The Big 12 was the only one of the Power 5 to lose schools in realignment, which makes it appear vulnerable. Meanwhile, the ACC is earning nowhere near its peers, which is a factor not many people are seeing. The fact that Big 12 schools earn more from only two tiers of TV rights than the ACC does for all should explain their true position.
The Big 12 and ACC now have 2 clauses that play a factor in realignment: buyout clauses and grants of TV rights. The Big 12 Grant of Rights goes through the 2025-2026 season, with the ACC's lasting an extra year. These ensure that if a school leaves their conference before the agreement expires, the conference keeps all of their media rights, making the school unattractive for other leagues. Also, both conferences have buyout agreements for a school to leave. While the ACC now has a set fee of $50M, Big 12 schools agreed to pay the sum of their conference earnings from their last 2 years in the conference (including shares from TV rights, bowl payouts, and NCAA tournament payouts). For the Big 12, that number is currently close to $50M, but will surpass it by the end of the decade. In short, it is expensive to leave either conference.
The fact of the matter is that Texas and OU control the destinies of every Power conference; not even Notre Dame has the same amount of power to dictate how things fall for good. Wherever Texas and OU decide they want to end up, they can go, and this series has shown how things could end up for each scenario.
In 2010, they wanted to keep the entire Big 12 South together and join the Pac-10, but didn't after Texas A&M wavered and Baylor didn't get the okay from out west. These two schools decided they could not only make just as much in the Big 12, but keep their rivals with them. After Texas A&M announced it was leaving for the SEC in 2011, OU badly wanted to join the Pac-10 again, but Texas talked OU into staying. Why would either of these schools want to disband their own conference and miss out on playing their rivals when they could build their own into a stronger one?
Also, if ACC schools aren't making much in their current home, how would they add value to the Big 12? This is the reason that Florida State and Clemson were upset with the ACC a few years ago. Their in-state rivals aren't any more popular or historically better than they are, but are out-gaining them in the revenue department. The ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, but the lack of consistent football powers is hurting their pay. The ACC is a basketball-first conference, and basketball doesn't pay as well. However, trimming off some of the fat would increase the pay for everyone.
Why is it so important to eliminate the ACC when other schools are available, both easier and cheaper? Each of the Power 5 conferences earn the same initial amount from the College Football Playoff: $51.75M per year ($258.75M split 5 ways). The Orange and Sugar Bowls pay the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC $40M each per season, while the ACC gets $27.5M from the Orange Bowl. There are also bonuses for placing more teams in the CFP field and going to national championship game, but we won't figure those in. Since the Big 12 is the smallest conference with only 10 teams it makes more from the CFP and Sugar Bowl than the other 4 conferences do. Expanding to 12 would only take away that advantage. However, if the ACC was eliminated and the Big 12 could get the Orange Bowl bid (it was attached to the Big 12's predecessor, the Big Eight Conference, from 1976-1996), the conference could stand to gain money.
For this to happen, though, the Big 12 will need help. If Texas and Oklahoma make their intentions clear that they will never be options for the Big Ten and SEC in the future, there is hope those two conferences would join in to complete a mass raid of the ACC. Both the Big Ten and SEC badly want into North Carolina and Virginia for their conference networks, so perhaps a deal could be made between the 3 conferences.
With that said, the Big 12 adds Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville for certain. The remaining two spots are where things get difficult because these are 100-year decisions. Notre Dame will be greatly pursued by the Big 12 and Pac-12, and could join a conference if Independents aren't able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Miami, Pittsburgh, and Duke are the remaining ACC schools still under consideration (sorry, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse), while American schools of Cincinnati and Memphis are too.
Duke would get the Big 12 into North Carolina - a great thing for a future Big 12 Network - and bring a Top 5 basketball program into the fold. Miami would bring a national brand and more of a presence in Florida, but lacks its own stadium and can't consistently sellout the one it plays in. Pitt is similar to Miami, but offers a new state in Pennsylvania and a better basketball program. Cincinnati and Memphis have been discussed plenty throughout this series, but would both be worthy additions to a Power conference if they could find their right one.
Ultimately, I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12 for the Pac-12, where it has two permanent rivals in Southern Cal and Stanford. That leaves the Big 12 to add Pitt and Miami to get to 16, allowing the conference to boast two more big rivalry games in Pitt-WVU and Miami-FSU. IF the Big 12 somehow could go to 20 schools, Duke, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston would allow for a great conference of four 5-team divisions.
There are a few options for the schedule. The Big 12 could go East-West, playing 7 division games and playing 2 rotating opponents from the other division. The issue is that it would take 4 years to play everyone in the conference for most teams, and Iowa St wouldn't play any of it Big Eight rivals very often. Another option is to have two divisions, rotating groups of 4 with other groups so that there are 3 different formats in 6 years. The WAC tried this in the 1990s and it is not ideal, but Texas and Oklahoma could be protected in years where they aren't aligned together.
The best option would be to have 4 divisions. The only question is whether every school would have a permanent rival (or more), or if just a few current rivals would be protected. While each team having one permanent rival from each division would provide easier scheduling, it could provide imbalanced schedules on an annual basis (similar to LSU's complaint of having to play Florida every season). Only protect the most important games: Texas-OU and ISU-KSU are the only ones that come to mind as completely necessary. For most schools, that means they play every school in the conference in 2 seasons, but the 4 exceptions would only take an extra year to do so.
The idea is to allow every school equal access into each region, so, if not in the same division as them, they'll play either FSU or Miami, Georgia Tech or Clemson, West Virginia or Pitt, Louisville or Iowa St, Kansas or Kansas St, Oklahoma or Oklahoma St, TCU or Baylor, and Texas or Texas Tech. This is the most balanced way.
Finally, I get to the money side of things. Big 12 schools currently earn $20M per season. I believe that would increase after the new schools are added, moving the Big 12 to each ground with the Big Ten and SEC at $25M per season. With 4 divisions, the Big 12 leads the movement to a 4-team conference championship playoff, allowing the division winners to determine the conference's champion. My estimates are that TV rights for these 3 games could sell for at least $4M per school. Whether or not LHN is turned into the Big 12 Network or not, I could see the Big 12 earning up to $11M per school for one, which puts the total TV payout at $40M, which would be great.
If the Power 5 conferences get slimmed down to 4, the battle for the last spot will be between the ACC and Big 12. The Big 12 was the only one of the Power 5 to lose schools in realignment, which makes it appear vulnerable. Meanwhile, the ACC is earning nowhere near its peers, which is a factor not many people are seeing. The fact that Big 12 schools earn more from only two tiers of TV rights than the ACC does for all should explain their true position.
The Big 12 and ACC now have 2 clauses that play a factor in realignment: buyout clauses and grants of TV rights. The Big 12 Grant of Rights goes through the 2025-2026 season, with the ACC's lasting an extra year. These ensure that if a school leaves their conference before the agreement expires, the conference keeps all of their media rights, making the school unattractive for other leagues. Also, both conferences have buyout agreements for a school to leave. While the ACC now has a set fee of $50M, Big 12 schools agreed to pay the sum of their conference earnings from their last 2 years in the conference (including shares from TV rights, bowl payouts, and NCAA tournament payouts). For the Big 12, that number is currently close to $50M, but will surpass it by the end of the decade. In short, it is expensive to leave either conference.
The fact of the matter is that Texas and OU control the destinies of every Power conference; not even Notre Dame has the same amount of power to dictate how things fall for good. Wherever Texas and OU decide they want to end up, they can go, and this series has shown how things could end up for each scenario.
In 2010, they wanted to keep the entire Big 12 South together and join the Pac-10, but didn't after Texas A&M wavered and Baylor didn't get the okay from out west. These two schools decided they could not only make just as much in the Big 12, but keep their rivals with them. After Texas A&M announced it was leaving for the SEC in 2011, OU badly wanted to join the Pac-10 again, but Texas talked OU into staying. Why would either of these schools want to disband their own conference and miss out on playing their rivals when they could build their own into a stronger one?
Also, if ACC schools aren't making much in their current home, how would they add value to the Big 12? This is the reason that Florida State and Clemson were upset with the ACC a few years ago. Their in-state rivals aren't any more popular or historically better than they are, but are out-gaining them in the revenue department. The ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, but the lack of consistent football powers is hurting their pay. The ACC is a basketball-first conference, and basketball doesn't pay as well. However, trimming off some of the fat would increase the pay for everyone.
Why is it so important to eliminate the ACC when other schools are available, both easier and cheaper? Each of the Power 5 conferences earn the same initial amount from the College Football Playoff: $51.75M per year ($258.75M split 5 ways). The Orange and Sugar Bowls pay the Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC $40M each per season, while the ACC gets $27.5M from the Orange Bowl. There are also bonuses for placing more teams in the CFP field and going to national championship game, but we won't figure those in. Since the Big 12 is the smallest conference with only 10 teams it makes more from the CFP and Sugar Bowl than the other 4 conferences do. Expanding to 12 would only take away that advantage. However, if the ACC was eliminated and the Big 12 could get the Orange Bowl bid (it was attached to the Big 12's predecessor, the Big Eight Conference, from 1976-1996), the conference could stand to gain money.
For this to happen, though, the Big 12 will need help. If Texas and Oklahoma make their intentions clear that they will never be options for the Big Ten and SEC in the future, there is hope those two conferences would join in to complete a mass raid of the ACC. Both the Big Ten and SEC badly want into North Carolina and Virginia for their conference networks, so perhaps a deal could be made between the 3 conferences.
With that said, the Big 12 adds Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville for certain. The remaining two spots are where things get difficult because these are 100-year decisions. Notre Dame will be greatly pursued by the Big 12 and Pac-12, and could join a conference if Independents aren't able to qualify for the 4-team playoff. Miami, Pittsburgh, and Duke are the remaining ACC schools still under consideration (sorry, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse), while American schools of Cincinnati and Memphis are too.
Duke would get the Big 12 into North Carolina - a great thing for a future Big 12 Network - and bring a Top 5 basketball program into the fold. Miami would bring a national brand and more of a presence in Florida, but lacks its own stadium and can't consistently sellout the one it plays in. Pitt is similar to Miami, but offers a new state in Pennsylvania and a better basketball program. Cincinnati and Memphis have been discussed plenty throughout this series, but would both be worthy additions to a Power conference if they could find their right one.
Ultimately, I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12 for the Pac-12, where it has two permanent rivals in Southern Cal and Stanford. That leaves the Big 12 to add Pitt and Miami to get to 16, allowing the conference to boast two more big rivalry games in Pitt-WVU and Miami-FSU. IF the Big 12 somehow could go to 20 schools, Duke, Cincinnati, Memphis, and Houston would allow for a great conference of four 5-team divisions.
There are a few options for the schedule. The Big 12 could go East-West, playing 7 division games and playing 2 rotating opponents from the other division. The issue is that it would take 4 years to play everyone in the conference for most teams, and Iowa St wouldn't play any of it Big Eight rivals very often. Another option is to have two divisions, rotating groups of 4 with other groups so that there are 3 different formats in 6 years. The WAC tried this in the 1990s and it is not ideal, but Texas and Oklahoma could be protected in years where they aren't aligned together.
The best option would be to have 4 divisions. The only question is whether every school would have a permanent rival (or more), or if just a few current rivals would be protected. While each team having one permanent rival from each division would provide easier scheduling, it could provide imbalanced schedules on an annual basis (similar to LSU's complaint of having to play Florida every season). Only protect the most important games: Texas-OU and ISU-KSU are the only ones that come to mind as completely necessary. For most schools, that means they play every school in the conference in 2 seasons, but the 4 exceptions would only take an extra year to do so.
The idea is to allow every school equal access into each region, so, if not in the same division as them, they'll play either FSU or Miami, Georgia Tech or Clemson, West Virginia or Pitt, Louisville or Iowa St, Kansas or Kansas St, Oklahoma or Oklahoma St, TCU or Baylor, and Texas or Texas Tech. This is the most balanced way.
Finally, I get to the money side of things. Big 12 schools currently earn $20M per season. I believe that would increase after the new schools are added, moving the Big 12 to each ground with the Big Ten and SEC at $25M per season. With 4 divisions, the Big 12 leads the movement to a 4-team conference championship playoff, allowing the division winners to determine the conference's champion. My estimates are that TV rights for these 3 games could sell for at least $4M per school. Whether or not LHN is turned into the Big 12 Network or not, I could see the Big 12 earning up to $11M per school for one, which puts the total TV payout at $40M, which would be great.
Big 12
Northwest - Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
Northwest - Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
Southwest - Baylor, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
Northeast - Iowa St, Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Southeast - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami
2. Big Ten grabs two AAU schools
The key to pulling off the raid of the ACC is getting the Big Ten and SEC involved. While the Big Ten could be interested in two SEC schools, Missouri and Vanderbilt, this is unlikely to happen in this scenario. Virginia and North Carolina don't combine for as many students as the two SEC schools, but the population of their states combine for 8 million more people than the others. This means more TV sets, which is crucial for the Big Ten Network's footprint. These two schools also add value in basketball.
The toughest task involved with breaking up the ACC is splitting up the North Carolina schools. Honestly, realignment down to 4 power conferences will break up one of two blocks of 4 schools: North Carolina, composed of UNC, North Carolina St, Duke, and Wake Forest; or Texas, comprised of Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU. Most conferences want a Texas school to add that state to its recruiting and TV footprints, but the academic prowess of the ACC schools are what make them desirable to the Big Ten. While the Texas schools are generally considered to have the better overall athletic programs, only Texas has high-quality academics.
Splitting up North Carolina from Duke and Virginia from Virginia Tech may be difficult in theory. After all, the North Carolina schools have been together for a long time, while getting the Virginia schools in the same conference took a lot of work in the previous decade. Also, the heart of the ACC is in North Carolina, which is why many believe the ACC is a basketball-first conference. However, if the Big 12 sways the schools it is interested in, and the Big Ten uses Boston College and Syracuse (both of whom would gladly accept invitations from the Big Ten) as leverage, UNC and UVA may have to give in. I actually believe UVA is the most likely to leave, with its rival Maryland having done the same within the past few years and the possibility for a long-term scheduling agreement with in-state rival Virginia Tech. If UVA leaves, UNC will likely see the writing on the wall and come too. Otherwise, UNC risks being left out of a power conference, and I can't see the school placing itself in that position.
One thing that few have seen is that Big 12 has leverage to get the Big Ten on its side. Sure, Texas and Oklahoma can break the Big 12 up and go to whichever conference they want -- that is the point of this series. However, as previously seen in Parts 2, 4, and 5, if the Big Ten gambles on targeting these two schools, if spurned, it could be left with far less desirable options to choose from to get to 16. Any additions other than Texas, OU, Kansas, Missouri, Vanderbilt, UNC, or Virginia would be considered a failure for the Big Ten, and Texas and OU hold the cards in their hands. Iowa St is an AAU school that doesn't expand the Big Ten footprint. West Virginia, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and the remaining Texas schools just don't move the dial. If Texas and OU make their intentions clear: expand their own conference or else leave and not even consider joining the Big Ten, the Big Ten might have to take the the "sure thing" of joining in on the ACC raid. Put shortly, the Big Ten is the most powerful brand in college athletics, but the Big 12 has the leverage here and must use it if it wants to stay alive in the era of only 4 power conferences.
The additions of UNC and UVA bring a couple options to the Big Ten's alignment. For 2 divisions, East-West is easy to align. For the more progressive 4 division model, there are two scenarios. Ohio St, Michigan, MSU, and PSU together in the Midwest, the 4 Indiana and Illinois schools together in the Central, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska out West is one option. The problem is that the Midwest contains the 4 biggest brands, while the Central is historically far weaker. Another option is to align the Michigan schools in the North with Minnesota and Wisconsin, place Ohio St and Penn St with the Indiana schools in the South, and allow the Illinois schools to join Nebraska and Iowa. This creates more competitive divisions, but travel isn't quite as good. I believe the Big Ten would choose the latter option.
The toughest task involved with breaking up the ACC is splitting up the North Carolina schools. Honestly, realignment down to 4 power conferences will break up one of two blocks of 4 schools: North Carolina, composed of UNC, North Carolina St, Duke, and Wake Forest; or Texas, comprised of Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, and TCU. Most conferences want a Texas school to add that state to its recruiting and TV footprints, but the academic prowess of the ACC schools are what make them desirable to the Big Ten. While the Texas schools are generally considered to have the better overall athletic programs, only Texas has high-quality academics.
Splitting up North Carolina from Duke and Virginia from Virginia Tech may be difficult in theory. After all, the North Carolina schools have been together for a long time, while getting the Virginia schools in the same conference took a lot of work in the previous decade. Also, the heart of the ACC is in North Carolina, which is why many believe the ACC is a basketball-first conference. However, if the Big 12 sways the schools it is interested in, and the Big Ten uses Boston College and Syracuse (both of whom would gladly accept invitations from the Big Ten) as leverage, UNC and UVA may have to give in. I actually believe UVA is the most likely to leave, with its rival Maryland having done the same within the past few years and the possibility for a long-term scheduling agreement with in-state rival Virginia Tech. If UVA leaves, UNC will likely see the writing on the wall and come too. Otherwise, UNC risks being left out of a power conference, and I can't see the school placing itself in that position.
One thing that few have seen is that Big 12 has leverage to get the Big Ten on its side. Sure, Texas and Oklahoma can break the Big 12 up and go to whichever conference they want -- that is the point of this series. However, as previously seen in Parts 2, 4, and 5, if the Big Ten gambles on targeting these two schools, if spurned, it could be left with far less desirable options to choose from to get to 16. Any additions other than Texas, OU, Kansas, Missouri, Vanderbilt, UNC, or Virginia would be considered a failure for the Big Ten, and Texas and OU hold the cards in their hands. Iowa St is an AAU school that doesn't expand the Big Ten footprint. West Virginia, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and the remaining Texas schools just don't move the dial. If Texas and OU make their intentions clear: expand their own conference or else leave and not even consider joining the Big Ten, the Big Ten might have to take the the "sure thing" of joining in on the ACC raid. Put shortly, the Big Ten is the most powerful brand in college athletics, but the Big 12 has the leverage here and must use it if it wants to stay alive in the era of only 4 power conferences.
The additions of UNC and UVA bring a couple options to the Big Ten's alignment. For 2 divisions, East-West is easy to align. For the more progressive 4 division model, there are two scenarios. Ohio St, Michigan, MSU, and PSU together in the Midwest, the 4 Indiana and Illinois schools together in the Central, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska out West is one option. The problem is that the Midwest contains the 4 biggest brands, while the Central is historically far weaker. Another option is to align the Michigan schools in the North with Minnesota and Wisconsin, place Ohio St and Penn St with the Indiana schools in the South, and allow the Illinois schools to join Nebraska and Iowa. This creates more competitive divisions, but travel isn't quite as good. I believe the Big Ten would choose the latter option.
Big Ten
West - Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern
North - Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South - Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
North - Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South - Indiana, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
East - Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
3. The SEC fills in the blanks
Look up a map of the SEC and you'll immediately notice a large gap on the eastern coast. It is no secret that the SEC also wants into North Carolina and Virginia to not only fill in that gap, but expand the footprint of the SEC Network into that large area of population. While UNC and UVA are better fits for the Big Ten, there are two SEC-esque schools located in those states: North Carolina St and Virginia Tech. With better football programs and more students than their respective in-state rivals, the SEC would hit the jackpot with these additions.
Gaining leverage on the SEC might prove to be fairly easy as well. While the SEC will almost always be assured solid schools to choose from if the Big 12 disbands, there are also less desirable options than VT and UNC. The SEC could see Missouri and possibly even Vanderbilt leave or could miss out on both OU and KU. West Virginia would always be there for the taking, but other options such as Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St don't offer the TV footprints of the eastern schools. Like the Big Ten, the SEC could not agree to this raid and gamble on OU and KU, but the result could leave it looking foolish. The safe route is actually one of the best expansion options regardless of which conference is dissolved, so the league would be wise to jump on this.
Aligning into divisions would also be easy in this conference, whether at 2 or 4. Missouri could shift to the West to allow VT an NCSU in the East for 2 divisions. For 4, split these 2 into sensible groups of 4.
Gaining leverage on the SEC might prove to be fairly easy as well. While the SEC will almost always be assured solid schools to choose from if the Big 12 disbands, there are also less desirable options than VT and UNC. The SEC could see Missouri and possibly even Vanderbilt leave or could miss out on both OU and KU. West Virginia would always be there for the taking, but other options such as Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St don't offer the TV footprints of the eastern schools. Like the Big Ten, the SEC could not agree to this raid and gamble on OU and KU, but the result could leave it looking foolish. The safe route is actually one of the best expansion options regardless of which conference is dissolved, so the league would be wise to jump on this.
Aligning into divisions would also be easy in this conference, whether at 2 or 4. Missouri could shift to the West to allow VT an NCSU in the East for 2 divisions. For 4, split these 2 into sensible groups of 4.
SEC
West - Arkansas, LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M
South - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St
North - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
South - Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi St
North - Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
East - Florida, Georgia, North Carolina St, South Carolina
4. The Pac-12 cleans up
The Pac-12 has the least to gain by the Big 12 staying together. Its location on the west coast means there aren't as many viable expansion options if the Big 12 stays intact. The Pac-12 could certainly stay put at 12, but that is no fun, so I will only discuss its expansion options.
If the Pac-12 wants teams currently in a power conference, it has to look at ACC schools. Yes, the only options are 3 time zones away on the opposite coast. Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, and Notre Dame are what is leftover. All five are private schools, but Notre Dame and Boston College are Catholic schools. Since the Pac-12 doesn't have any religious schools, this could pose a problem, but does anyone really see the Pac-12 turning down Notre Dame.
Remember, I have Notre Dame choosing to be different to recruit nationally, which is why they don't consider the Big Ten as a viable option. The SEC lacks in academics, which blocks that conference from contention. The only two options for Notre Dame to join a conference are Big 12 and Pac-12, but the better academics and standing rivalries out west are why I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12. So ND is the first school added.
Wake Forest has stated it will drop football if players are paid; that could happen in the near future. This school arguably brings the least to the ACC right now, so I could see this school being left out. The sad thing is that WF probably wouldn't mind. That means Duke, BC, and Syracuse are the current Power 5 options to join Notre Dame in the Pac-12. While the travel would be outrageous, things might not be so bad. Notre would truly maintain playing nationally - all 4 time zones! - while the Pac-12 would gain the largest college brand in the world, the New York, Boston, and North Carolina TV markets (huge for the Pac-12 Networks), and gain more exposure on the east coast. Also, these schools, while only Duke is AAU, are not slouches on the academic side, something valued by the Pac-12.
Now, with Notre Dame already in the fold, what are some closer options? BYU is the most notable. It is the worldwide brand representing Mormans and is the only non-Power school to win a national championship in football in the modern era. BYU's football and basketball programs are perennially good. The only problems are the religious make-up of the school, the Pac-12's current presence in Utah, and no play or travel on Sundays. Despite all of that, BYU would make an excellent pair to ND's addition.
To get to 16 using this route, there are just a few remaining options left: Cincinnati, Houston, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, and Boise St. Cincinnati would be a great travel partner for Notre Dame, has a very large enrollment, and a quality overall athletic program. Houston also has a large enrollment, new athletic stadia, and a thriving football program, located in one of the top media markets. New Mexico is an underrated school, as it has a great basketball program and a ton of potential in football. While not the biggest market, the state population of New Mexico is higher than both Nebraska and West Virginia and would certainly add to the Pac-12. Nevada and UNLV are interesting cases, as the former is the higher ranked in academics and has a better football history, while the latter is located in the better market and has a very notable basketball program. Also, the state of Nevada has a larger population than New Mexico. Finally, Boise St needs to be mentioned. The football program became a national brand over the course of the 2000s, but the academic profile and other sports in the athletic program offer very little. The shine is beginning to wear off of this school, and it is simply not a viable option without its shine.
So the Pac-16's expansion options are:
-Notre Dame, Duke, Boston College, and Syracuse
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and New Mexico
-Notre Dame, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV
Each option offers its own form of potential, but the ACC schools will add more exposure than the rest. The second option listed would bring more from an athletic standpoint, and it is sad to see those schools left out, but this conference will probably choose the others.
If the Pac-12 wants teams currently in a power conference, it has to look at ACC schools. Yes, the only options are 3 time zones away on the opposite coast. Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke, and Notre Dame are what is leftover. All five are private schools, but Notre Dame and Boston College are Catholic schools. Since the Pac-12 doesn't have any religious schools, this could pose a problem, but does anyone really see the Pac-12 turning down Notre Dame.
Remember, I have Notre Dame choosing to be different to recruit nationally, which is why they don't consider the Big Ten as a viable option. The SEC lacks in academics, which blocks that conference from contention. The only two options for Notre Dame to join a conference are Big 12 and Pac-12, but the better academics and standing rivalries out west are why I believe Notre Dame spurns the Big 12. So ND is the first school added.
Wake Forest has stated it will drop football if players are paid; that could happen in the near future. This school arguably brings the least to the ACC right now, so I could see this school being left out. The sad thing is that WF probably wouldn't mind. That means Duke, BC, and Syracuse are the current Power 5 options to join Notre Dame in the Pac-12. While the travel would be outrageous, things might not be so bad. Notre would truly maintain playing nationally - all 4 time zones! - while the Pac-12 would gain the largest college brand in the world, the New York, Boston, and North Carolina TV markets (huge for the Pac-12 Networks), and gain more exposure on the east coast. Also, these schools, while only Duke is AAU, are not slouches on the academic side, something valued by the Pac-12.
Now, with Notre Dame already in the fold, what are some closer options? BYU is the most notable. It is the worldwide brand representing Mormans and is the only non-Power school to win a national championship in football in the modern era. BYU's football and basketball programs are perennially good. The only problems are the religious make-up of the school, the Pac-12's current presence in Utah, and no play or travel on Sundays. Despite all of that, BYU would make an excellent pair to ND's addition.
To get to 16 using this route, there are just a few remaining options left: Cincinnati, Houston, New Mexico, Nevada, UNLV, and Boise St. Cincinnati would be a great travel partner for Notre Dame, has a very large enrollment, and a quality overall athletic program. Houston also has a large enrollment, new athletic stadia, and a thriving football program, located in one of the top media markets. New Mexico is an underrated school, as it has a great basketball program and a ton of potential in football. While not the biggest market, the state population of New Mexico is higher than both Nebraska and West Virginia and would certainly add to the Pac-12. Nevada and UNLV are interesting cases, as the former is the higher ranked in academics and has a better football history, while the latter is located in the better market and has a very notable basketball program. Also, the state of Nevada has a larger population than New Mexico. Finally, Boise St needs to be mentioned. The football program became a national brand over the course of the 2000s, but the academic profile and other sports in the athletic program offer very little. The shine is beginning to wear off of this school, and it is simply not a viable option without its shine.
So the Pac-16's expansion options are:
-Notre Dame, Duke, Boston College, and Syracuse
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston
-Notre Dame, BYU, Cincinnati, and New Mexico
-Notre Dame, BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV
Each option offers its own form of potential, but the ACC schools will add more exposure than the rest. The second option listed would bring more from an athletic standpoint, and it is sad to see those schools left out, but this conference will probably choose the others.
Pac-16
Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St
Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA
Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah
East - Boston College, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse
What could a Texas schedule look like?
Division Games - 3 - Played every season.
1. Baylor (home in odd years)
2. TCU (home in even years)
3. Texas Tech (home in odd years)
Inter-division Games - 6
4. Oklahoma (every season, at Cotton Bowl Stadium)
5. Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St (rotating)
6. Iowa St (even) or Louisville (odd)
7. Pittsburgh (even) or West Virginia (odd)
8. Georgia Tech (even) or Clemson (odd)
9. Florida St (even) or Miami (odd)
Out-of-Conference Games - 3
10. Texas A&M (home in even years)
11-12. Varying
Overview
This would be such a wonderful option for Texas and OU. Using the leverage they hold over both the Big Ten and SEC, they are able to keep their conference intact and add quality programs to it. No current rivalries are lost, while others with high profiles are brought in.
While not landing Notre Dame is a slight blow, Notre Dame is more likely to get the remaining ACC schools to join the Pac-16 than Pitt or Miami would be able to pull off. This is very important because if Wake Forest is the lone ACC school without a new Power 4 home, it is unlikely to sue for exit fees and the grant of rights, easing the entire process.
As mentioned, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston are worthy programs, so those 3 being left out of the new Power 4 would be disappointing. However, the priority for Texas and OU is to do what is best for themselves.
Finally, there are a whole host of out-of-conference rivalries that the Big 12 could have. Texas-Texas A&M, Texas-Arkansas, Oklahoma-Nebraska, Kansas-Missouri, and West Virginia-Maryland are rivalries we could see current schools look to bring back. However, Florida St-Florida, Clemson-South Carolina, Georgia Tech-Georgia, Pitt-Penn St, and Louisville-Kentucky would be welcomed with open arms. New conference rivalries such as FSU-Clemson, FSU-Miami, Pitt-WVU, and Pitt-Louisville would be exciting and increase the conference's profile.
Ultimately, Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest of the Big 12 would benefit by pulling this move off.
While not landing Notre Dame is a slight blow, Notre Dame is more likely to get the remaining ACC schools to join the Pac-16 than Pitt or Miami would be able to pull off. This is very important because if Wake Forest is the lone ACC school without a new Power 4 home, it is unlikely to sue for exit fees and the grant of rights, easing the entire process.
As mentioned, BYU, Cincinnati, and Houston are worthy programs, so those 3 being left out of the new Power 4 would be disappointing. However, the priority for Texas and OU is to do what is best for themselves.
Finally, there are a whole host of out-of-conference rivalries that the Big 12 could have. Texas-Texas A&M, Texas-Arkansas, Oklahoma-Nebraska, Kansas-Missouri, and West Virginia-Maryland are rivalries we could see current schools look to bring back. However, Florida St-Florida, Clemson-South Carolina, Georgia Tech-Georgia, Pitt-Penn St, and Louisville-Kentucky would be welcomed with open arms. New conference rivalries such as FSU-Clemson, FSU-Miami, Pitt-WVU, and Pitt-Louisville would be exciting and increase the conference's profile.
Ultimately, Texas, Oklahoma, and the rest of the Big 12 would benefit by pulling this move off.
Monday, January 25, 2016
Big 12: Weighing Scheduling Options
Recently, I discussed alignment options for the Big 12. After weighing the options, the potential revenues to be earned support adding a conference championship game. Options for competitiveness support dropping from 9 conference games to either 7 or 8. In my previous post, I briefly mention how the TV networks, ESPN and FOX, would need to approve any move that alters the number of conference games. My suggestion is for the Big 12 to attempt to replace the loss of conference games with quality games outside the conference.
The Big 12 now has a scheduling agreement among its schools, ensuring that every school schedules at least one team from a Power 5 conference or an FBS Independent. The result is each school playing at least 10 Power 5 (P5) opponents each season. With the Big 12's 9-game slate, there are 45 total conference games.
Outside of conference (OOC), each school can only play 3 games. Of these 3, 1 must be a P5 opponent, resulting in an average of 5 home P5 games for the conference each season.
Currently, schools in the Big 12 average 2 home games of their 3 OOC each year, so that results in an average of 1.5 OOC home games that aren't in the P5.
What I will term "Total Network games" are any home game the Big 12 has; these are what the conference sells to ESPN and FOX each year. There are 65 Network games each season when you consider 45 Big 12 conference games, 5 P5 home games OOC, and 15 non-P5 home games OOC. Of those, 50 total are against Power 5 schools, which I will term "Quality Network games."
For an 8-game conference schedule, each school would need to schedule 2 P5 schools OOC to maintain 10 P5 opponents each season. This results in only 40 Big 12 conference games, but 20 vs the P5 and 20 vs non-P5 in OOC. When figuring Total Network games, that yields a total of 65. Quality Network games would still stand at 50.
Would the networks buy this logic? I am not sure. But it checks out as long as every school is playing at least two Power 5 schools each season.
For a 7-game conference slate, it could prove difficult for each team to find 3 P5 schools to play outside of the Big 12. So what would happen if only 2 P5 opponents were required? First, there would be only 35 Big 12 conference games. Outside of conference, there would still be 20 P5 games, but an increase to 30 non-P5 games. Total Network inventory would be 35 Big 12, 10 home P5, and an average of 22.5 non-P5 for a total of 67.5. Of the 67.5, only 45 would count as Quality Network games, resulting in the TV networks losing a guarantee of 5 quality games each season.
Remember, these figures are what is guaranteed, the floor, so Big 12 schools could potentially play more P5 OOC. I'm not sure if the networks would agree to this, but perhaps a ban on FCS opponents (which should happen anyway) would help the Big 12's case. Also, maybe the networks could be put in charge of scheduling 5 games of their choice each season, with quality Group of Five (Go5) teams such as Boise St, Cincinnati, and Houston being in the running to fill the slots.
If the networks don't agree to a guarantee of only 45 quality games per year, then the Big 12 could try its hand at scheduling 3 P5 each season OOC. This would result in 30 games vs P5 and 20 vs non-P5 OOC. Total Network inventory would be at 65 games, but Quality Network inventory would move up to 50.
As previously stated, with the Big Ten and Pac-12 playing 9-game schedules and the ACC and SEC playing 8-game schedules, it would be tough for the Big 12 Conference to find 30 Power 5 opponents outside the conference. If it could be pulled off, though, it would be ideal.
My suggestion is for the Big 12 to attempt to get down to the 7-game conference schedule. It would work great with having 2 divisions of 5 teams each. Scheduling would be as follows: 4 intra-division games, 2 rotating inter-division games, and 1 permanent inter-division rival. Outside the conference, the 5 games would be filled with at least 2 Power 5 opponents, with a suggestion of 3, if possible.
The Big 12 would put itself at a huge advantage compared to the other 4 power conferences when it comes to overall records and what it takes to be bowl eligible, while also offering incentive for the return of high-profile rivalries. Texas could attempt to play Arkansas and Texas A&M every season. Oklahoma could try to make Nebraska a permanent game again. West Virginia could aim for always having two of the following on the schedule: Pitt, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. Perhaps Kansas would be interested in restoring the Border War with Missouri. Even TCU could look to play former Mountain West rivals BYU and Utah (and Boise St?) on a semi-regular basis.
The Big 12 badly wants the extra revenues of a conference championship game. But expanding to 12 or adding one at the end of a round robin schedule are just not viable options. The best answer for the Big 12, whether other conferences like it or not (they won't), is to do this. The recent legislation made this possible, so it is time for the Big 12 to take advantage of that.
The Current Format
The Big 12 now has a scheduling agreement among its schools, ensuring that every school schedules at least one team from a Power 5 conference or an FBS Independent. The result is each school playing at least 10 Power 5 (P5) opponents each season. With the Big 12's 9-game slate, there are 45 total conference games.
Outside of conference (OOC), each school can only play 3 games. Of these 3, 1 must be a P5 opponent, resulting in an average of 5 home P5 games for the conference each season.
Currently, schools in the Big 12 average 2 home games of their 3 OOC each year, so that results in an average of 1.5 OOC home games that aren't in the P5.
What I will term "Total Network games" are any home game the Big 12 has; these are what the conference sells to ESPN and FOX each year. There are 65 Network games each season when you consider 45 Big 12 conference games, 5 P5 home games OOC, and 15 non-P5 home games OOC. Of those, 50 total are against Power 5 schools, which I will term "Quality Network games."
8 Conference Games + 2 Power 5 Out-of-Conference
For an 8-game conference schedule, each school would need to schedule 2 P5 schools OOC to maintain 10 P5 opponents each season. This results in only 40 Big 12 conference games, but 20 vs the P5 and 20 vs non-P5 in OOC. When figuring Total Network games, that yields a total of 65. Quality Network games would still stand at 50.
Would the networks buy this logic? I am not sure. But it checks out as long as every school is playing at least two Power 5 schools each season.
7 Conference Games + 2 Power 5 Out-of-Conference
For a 7-game conference slate, it could prove difficult for each team to find 3 P5 schools to play outside of the Big 12. So what would happen if only 2 P5 opponents were required? First, there would be only 35 Big 12 conference games. Outside of conference, there would still be 20 P5 games, but an increase to 30 non-P5 games. Total Network inventory would be 35 Big 12, 10 home P5, and an average of 22.5 non-P5 for a total of 67.5. Of the 67.5, only 45 would count as Quality Network games, resulting in the TV networks losing a guarantee of 5 quality games each season.
Remember, these figures are what is guaranteed, the floor, so Big 12 schools could potentially play more P5 OOC. I'm not sure if the networks would agree to this, but perhaps a ban on FCS opponents (which should happen anyway) would help the Big 12's case. Also, maybe the networks could be put in charge of scheduling 5 games of their choice each season, with quality Group of Five (Go5) teams such as Boise St, Cincinnati, and Houston being in the running to fill the slots.
7 Conference Games + 3 Power 5 Out-of-Conference
If the networks don't agree to a guarantee of only 45 quality games per year, then the Big 12 could try its hand at scheduling 3 P5 each season OOC. This would result in 30 games vs P5 and 20 vs non-P5 OOC. Total Network inventory would be at 65 games, but Quality Network inventory would move up to 50.
As previously stated, with the Big Ten and Pac-12 playing 9-game schedules and the ACC and SEC playing 8-game schedules, it would be tough for the Big 12 Conference to find 30 Power 5 opponents outside the conference. If it could be pulled off, though, it would be ideal.
Recap:
My suggestion is for the Big 12 to attempt to get down to the 7-game conference schedule. It would work great with having 2 divisions of 5 teams each. Scheduling would be as follows: 4 intra-division games, 2 rotating inter-division games, and 1 permanent inter-division rival. Outside the conference, the 5 games would be filled with at least 2 Power 5 opponents, with a suggestion of 3, if possible.
The Big 12 would put itself at a huge advantage compared to the other 4 power conferences when it comes to overall records and what it takes to be bowl eligible, while also offering incentive for the return of high-profile rivalries. Texas could attempt to play Arkansas and Texas A&M every season. Oklahoma could try to make Nebraska a permanent game again. West Virginia could aim for always having two of the following on the schedule: Pitt, Maryland, and Virginia Tech. Perhaps Kansas would be interested in restoring the Border War with Missouri. Even TCU could look to play former Mountain West rivals BYU and Utah (and Boise St?) on a semi-regular basis.
The Big 12 badly wants the extra revenues of a conference championship game. But expanding to 12 or adding one at the end of a round robin schedule are just not viable options. The best answer for the Big 12, whether other conferences like it or not (they won't), is to do this. The recent legislation made this possible, so it is time for the Big 12 to take advantage of that.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Texas Realignment Options - Part 5
Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.
Part 5 -- Go Independent
1. Texas goes Independent in Football, joins the ACC in others
Ever since Texas and ESPN created Longhorn Network, rumors have spread that Texas was preparing to one day go Independent; there is even a clause in the contract mentioning this exact scenario. So what if this actually happened, and what would it take to make it happen? It all comes down to money: is it possible for Texas to make more money as an Independent than to be in one of the four remaining power conferences?
First of all, Texas would be following a model similar to Notre Dame. Currently, Notre Dame is a full member of the ACC in all sports except for football, where the Irish is an Independent. In exchange, ND plays 5 ACC opponents every season. Texas would follow the same model, but I project only 4 games vs ACC teams each season. The ACC is a perennial top 3 basketball conference (along with the Big Ten and Big 12), and would provide exposure for Texas along the entire eastern shoreline, from Boston down to Miami. Texas would certainly be an outlier, but this is the only major conference that would take Texas in with this type of deal.
For football, Texas could schedule any teams it wants. A long-term contract would certainly be signed with Oklahoma, while playing Arkansas and Texas A&M again every season would be the next priorities. Texas Tech and Houston are not priorities from a rivalry standpoint, but they are important to play annually so that all Power 4 schools in Texas face Texas every season. The other permanent games on the docket could be chosen from Notre Dame, BYU (also an independent, with a history of playing Texas), and Oklahoma St (the latter on the basis of keeping a Big 12 South rivalry alive). Ultimately, playing Notre Dame could be off the table since that program has 3 permanent rivalries to go along with a plethora of others and 5 ACC games. At worst, BYU and Notre Dame could rotate in with Army, Navy, and Air Force as national brands that Texas could face. For the four ACC games, my suggestion would be 1 from each division each season. That would allow Texas to play teams from the same regions each season. For the remaining 2 games, other Texas schools such as UNT, Rice, Baylor, TCU, SMU, UTSA, UTEP, and Texas State could lock down one spot, while the last could be saved for games versus Pac-16, Big Ten, or even other SEC schools. The idea is to schedule the big rivalries and brands, while also traveling around the nation.
Whether all this can happen or not is contingent on how much money Texas can make. LHN guarantees an average of $15M per year (or 70% of the profits after ESPN recovers its initial investment) for 3rd-tier TV rights, essentially any game not picked by ESPN and FOX can be shown on LHN. Currently, LHN tries to get 2 football games per season. The contract says ESPN and LHN gets first bid for 1st- and 2nd-tier TV rights if Texas leaves the Big 12, so Texas would be looking to sell 4-5 games a year. Using Notre Dame as a model, the Irish gets at least $15M per year to show 7 home football games on NBC, with other sports earning a pro-rated pay in ESPN's TV deal with the ACC.
One option is for Texas to keep LHN and bid out the rights to the 4-5 remaining home games each year. Texas should have no trouble commanding $10-12M for a package of 5 games. Ideally, these would be on a main network like FOX, ABC, CBS, or NBC, but ESPN could force them all on LHN. If the latter happened, LHN would need to be carried everywhere ESPN is (on basic cable) to make it work, as Texas would risk a lack of exposure compared to being on network TV each week. Also, LHN would need to find ways to bring in more revenues. One way would be to carry games for conferences in the Group of 5, such as the American, Mountain West, MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt. If LHN offered at least one game from each of those conferences every week, it would have not only more inventory to offer TV providers, but would make LHN a national network that could bring in more money. The only issue with offering programming from these conferences is that LHN is a network for Texas and needs to carry Texas games first. Scheduling could become very tricky for both LHN and the entire athletic program. Another thing I should mention is what happens if LHN coverage doesn't pick up. LHN is only commanding 2 cents per home from networks outside the state of Texas. If the coverage and pay don't increase, Texas could be earning 70% of not very much. That would be a huge blow, and would make it not worth it. For this plan to work, Texas is going to need more guarantees from ESPN.
The second option is to turn LHN into the ACC Network. Since ESPN owns both Texas' and the ACC's 3rd-tier rights, this would be one of the easier mergers. Texas would still need to bid its 4-5 home games out, but if LHN/ACC Network bought them it wouldn't be as bad. Since the ACC currently covers more markets than any other conference, the ACCN should be able to earn more money than any other conference network, and become a national network at that. So even if ACCN/ESPN won the bid for Texas' 5 other home games, Texas would be playing on national TV each and every week. As an Independent, that is very important. The downside to this is that all Texas games would no longer be able to be broadcast on live TV; instead, probably half of them would move to the digital network (ie- an online form).
Either way, Texas would easily bring in $25M per year from football and 3rd-tier rights. There is no way to tell what ND is currently making from the ACC, but my estimate is at least $7.5M. If Texas could pull $10M-$15M from that deal (based on the ACC renegotiating the terms of the contract with ESPN), $35M-$40M would be the total payout of this move.
First of all, Texas would be following a model similar to Notre Dame. Currently, Notre Dame is a full member of the ACC in all sports except for football, where the Irish is an Independent. In exchange, ND plays 5 ACC opponents every season. Texas would follow the same model, but I project only 4 games vs ACC teams each season. The ACC is a perennial top 3 basketball conference (along with the Big Ten and Big 12), and would provide exposure for Texas along the entire eastern shoreline, from Boston down to Miami. Texas would certainly be an outlier, but this is the only major conference that would take Texas in with this type of deal.
For football, Texas could schedule any teams it wants. A long-term contract would certainly be signed with Oklahoma, while playing Arkansas and Texas A&M again every season would be the next priorities. Texas Tech and Houston are not priorities from a rivalry standpoint, but they are important to play annually so that all Power 4 schools in Texas face Texas every season. The other permanent games on the docket could be chosen from Notre Dame, BYU (also an independent, with a history of playing Texas), and Oklahoma St (the latter on the basis of keeping a Big 12 South rivalry alive). Ultimately, playing Notre Dame could be off the table since that program has 3 permanent rivalries to go along with a plethora of others and 5 ACC games. At worst, BYU and Notre Dame could rotate in with Army, Navy, and Air Force as national brands that Texas could face. For the four ACC games, my suggestion would be 1 from each division each season. That would allow Texas to play teams from the same regions each season. For the remaining 2 games, other Texas schools such as UNT, Rice, Baylor, TCU, SMU, UTSA, UTEP, and Texas State could lock down one spot, while the last could be saved for games versus Pac-16, Big Ten, or even other SEC schools. The idea is to schedule the big rivalries and brands, while also traveling around the nation.
Whether all this can happen or not is contingent on how much money Texas can make. LHN guarantees an average of $15M per year (or 70% of the profits after ESPN recovers its initial investment) for 3rd-tier TV rights, essentially any game not picked by ESPN and FOX can be shown on LHN. Currently, LHN tries to get 2 football games per season. The contract says ESPN and LHN gets first bid for 1st- and 2nd-tier TV rights if Texas leaves the Big 12, so Texas would be looking to sell 4-5 games a year. Using Notre Dame as a model, the Irish gets at least $15M per year to show 7 home football games on NBC, with other sports earning a pro-rated pay in ESPN's TV deal with the ACC.
One option is for Texas to keep LHN and bid out the rights to the 4-5 remaining home games each year. Texas should have no trouble commanding $10-12M for a package of 5 games. Ideally, these would be on a main network like FOX, ABC, CBS, or NBC, but ESPN could force them all on LHN. If the latter happened, LHN would need to be carried everywhere ESPN is (on basic cable) to make it work, as Texas would risk a lack of exposure compared to being on network TV each week. Also, LHN would need to find ways to bring in more revenues. One way would be to carry games for conferences in the Group of 5, such as the American, Mountain West, MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt. If LHN offered at least one game from each of those conferences every week, it would have not only more inventory to offer TV providers, but would make LHN a national network that could bring in more money. The only issue with offering programming from these conferences is that LHN is a network for Texas and needs to carry Texas games first. Scheduling could become very tricky for both LHN and the entire athletic program. Another thing I should mention is what happens if LHN coverage doesn't pick up. LHN is only commanding 2 cents per home from networks outside the state of Texas. If the coverage and pay don't increase, Texas could be earning 70% of not very much. That would be a huge blow, and would make it not worth it. For this plan to work, Texas is going to need more guarantees from ESPN.
The second option is to turn LHN into the ACC Network. Since ESPN owns both Texas' and the ACC's 3rd-tier rights, this would be one of the easier mergers. Texas would still need to bid its 4-5 home games out, but if LHN/ACC Network bought them it wouldn't be as bad. Since the ACC currently covers more markets than any other conference, the ACCN should be able to earn more money than any other conference network, and become a national network at that. So even if ACCN/ESPN won the bid for Texas' 5 other home games, Texas would be playing on national TV each and every week. As an Independent, that is very important. The downside to this is that all Texas games would no longer be able to be broadcast on live TV; instead, probably half of them would move to the digital network (ie- an online form).
Either way, Texas would easily bring in $25M per year from football and 3rd-tier rights. There is no way to tell what ND is currently making from the ACC, but my estimate is at least $7.5M. If Texas could pull $10M-$15M from that deal (based on the ACC renegotiating the terms of the contract with ESPN), $35M-$40M would be the total payout of this move.
2. The SEC
Refer to Part 4 for the in-depth logic behind Oklahoma and Kansas joining the SEC.
SEC
West - Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
East - Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
3. The Big Ten
Refer to Part 4 for the in-depth logic behind the Big Ten choosing West Virginia and Kansas St.
Big Ten
West - Illinois, Iowa, Kansas St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers, West Virginia
4. The Pac-12
Refer to Part 4 for the in-depth logic behind the Pac-12 becoming the Pac-16
Pac-16
Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St
Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA
Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah
Central - Houston, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech
5. The ACC
The ACC gets a win by adding Texas for non-football sports, but now has a few more options to choose from. First, which two teams will be added to get to 16 football members? The options are TCU, Baylor, Cincinnati, Memphis, and UConn. Since ACC schools are now guaranteed to play Texas every 4 years, there is no need to add two small, private schools that are located on a geographic island, no matter how much brand power they have. If Texas keeps LHN to itself, then the added footprint would be nice for a separate ACCN. Cincinnati and Memphis, meanwhile, offer new markets in Ohio, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Mississippi. An ACC network would also gain a big footprint by adding these schools. The difference is thinking long-term. Once TV moves more to the digital medium, networks will be largely funded by subscribers. Cincinnati and Memphis combine for over 60,000 students compared to 26,000 for TCU and Baylor.
Not to be left out is UConn. With the largest basketball pedigree of the bunch, UConn would fit in well with the ACC culture. The football program is lacking though, but that could change. UConn represents an entire state and has 30,000 students. That is 10,000 more than Memphis, which represents a single city. Ultimately, I leave UConn out since the northeast is covered by Boston College and Syracuse, while the southeastern region of the United States is prime recruiting turf. Cincinnati and Memphis are the schools the ACC gladly accepts.
Since ACC schools would have two programs to play outside of conference, I think Notre Dame is allowed to bump down to only 4 ACC games per season. That means each ACC program would play Texas and Notre Dame once every 4 seasons. If the ACC wanted, it could allow BYU to join the conference on similar grounds. The only issues are that BYU doesn't play sports or travel on Sundays and that they are in the Mountain Time Zone. Still, BYU has quality football and basketball programs and would fit in with the large brands of Texas and Notre Dame. If a 4th school could be found for this model, each ACC program would play one of the 4 schools each season in football. Perhaps TCU and/or Baylor go Independent and try to build up their brands. However, 20-21 schools is a little much for basketball scheduling and there aren't any available schools that meet the criteria, so Notre Dame, Texas, and possibly BYU are enough.
Not to be left out is UConn. With the largest basketball pedigree of the bunch, UConn would fit in well with the ACC culture. The football program is lacking though, but that could change. UConn represents an entire state and has 30,000 students. That is 10,000 more than Memphis, which represents a single city. Ultimately, I leave UConn out since the northeast is covered by Boston College and Syracuse, while the southeastern region of the United States is prime recruiting turf. Cincinnati and Memphis are the schools the ACC gladly accepts.
Since ACC schools would have two programs to play outside of conference, I think Notre Dame is allowed to bump down to only 4 ACC games per season. That means each ACC program would play Texas and Notre Dame once every 4 seasons. If the ACC wanted, it could allow BYU to join the conference on similar grounds. The only issues are that BYU doesn't play sports or travel on Sundays and that they are in the Mountain Time Zone. Still, BYU has quality football and basketball programs and would fit in with the large brands of Texas and Notre Dame. If a 4th school could be found for this model, each ACC program would play one of the 4 schools each season in football. Perhaps TCU and/or Baylor go Independent and try to build up their brands. However, 20-21 schools is a little much for basketball scheduling and there aren't any available schools that meet the criteria, so Notre Dame, Texas, and possibly BYU are enough.
ACC
West - Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh
North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest
South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami
What could a Texas schedule look like?
Permanent Rivalry Games - 5 - Played every season.
1. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)
2. Arkansas (home in odd years)
3. Texas A&M (home in even years)
4. Texas Tech (home in odd years)
5. Houston (home in even years)
Rotating ACC Games - 4 - Played every 4 seasons.
Rotating ACC Games - 4 - Played every 4 seasons.
6. Memphis (odd) or Louisville (odd) or Cincinnati (even) or Pittsburgh (even)
7. Boston College (even) or Syracuse (even) or Virginia (odd) or Virginia Tech (odd)
8. North Carolina (odd) or North Carolina St (odd) or Wake Forest (even) or Duke (even)
9. Florida St (even) or Miami (even) or Georgia Tech (odd) or Clemson (odd)
Remaining Games - 3
Remaining Games - 3
10. Rotating Texas Group of 5 opponent: Baylor, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas St, UNT, UTEP, or UTSA (home)
11. Rotating national brand: BYU, Notre Dame, Army, Air Force, or Navy
12. Rotating Pac-16, Big Ten, or SEC school
11. Rotating national brand: BYU, Notre Dame, Army, Air Force, or Navy
12. Rotating Pac-16, Big Ten, or SEC school
Overview
This would cause problems on multiple fronts. First, Baylor and TCU fail to find a new home in the Power 5. The two could get together with the best brands left, including Boise St and possibly BYU, to create a new conference, or could float as Independents. Neither is as desirable as joining one of the top 4 conferences, and the pay reflects that. I would expect these two schools to sue the other former Big 12 schools for the Grant of Rights and exit fees.
For Texas, the pay seems like it could be there. The freedom of scheduling would be welcomed, as would the return of local rivalries. Sure, annual games versus OSU, Baylor, and TCU would be missed, but it would be impossible to keep them all and be affiliated with the ACC. Ideally, Texas would be able to play those 3, Notre Dame, and BYU each season, but there just isn't room for that. While LHN and Independence have long seemed to be linked together, Texas may have to give LHN up to be able to afford being an "Indy."
One final thing to mention is this, with the move to only 4 conferences and there still only being 4 playoff spots, would Independents stand a chance of getting in? The Power 4 could demand that each of their champions get in, which would make a move to Independence a bad one. A provision could be included that the final spot be the best team of Texas, Notre Dame, and the ACC Champion, which would make this move be in Texas' favor. Or, due to potential antitrust litigation from the Group of 5, the playoff could remain the "4 best teams," to allow Independents and champions of smaller conferences access to the playoff. Whatever it may be, Texas needs to know before it makes a move.
For Texas, the pay seems like it could be there. The freedom of scheduling would be welcomed, as would the return of local rivalries. Sure, annual games versus OSU, Baylor, and TCU would be missed, but it would be impossible to keep them all and be affiliated with the ACC. Ideally, Texas would be able to play those 3, Notre Dame, and BYU each season, but there just isn't room for that. While LHN and Independence have long seemed to be linked together, Texas may have to give LHN up to be able to afford being an "Indy."
One final thing to mention is this, with the move to only 4 conferences and there still only being 4 playoff spots, would Independents stand a chance of getting in? The Power 4 could demand that each of their champions get in, which would make a move to Independence a bad one. A provision could be included that the final spot be the best team of Texas, Notre Dame, and the ACC Champion, which would make this move be in Texas' favor. Or, due to potential antitrust litigation from the Group of 5, the playoff could remain the "4 best teams," to allow Independents and champions of smaller conferences access to the playoff. Whatever it may be, Texas needs to know before it makes a move.
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
Texas Realignment Options - Part 4
Recently, Oklahoma President David Boren has demanded that the Big 12 Conference do three things - add 2 schools, a championship game, and a conference television network - or else OU will start considering its "long-term" options. The first isn't ideal, the second is now possible without expanding, and the third might not even be possible. Essentially, Boren is firing shots at Texas, threatening to leave if OU doesn't get its way…again. However, if OU leaves the conference, it will be testing the Big 12's "Grant of TV Rights" that Boren demanded be implemented in 2011. Nobody knows how difficult it will be to get around the Grant of Rights, but finding homes for the rest of the league members would certainly help the outlook. This piece is part of a series of realignment options for Texas, and how it will affect the current outlook of the Big 12, as well as the rest of the Power 5 conferences.
Part 4 -- Join the ACC
1. Texas and Notre Dame join the ACC
The ACC currently ranks fifth among the Power 5 conferences in both TV and total revenues. What is the first step towards fixing this? Well, landing Texas and Notre Dame, the top two most valuable athletic programs in the nation, is certainly a great start. Every conference wants these two schools (sans maybe Texas for the SEC), but the ACC is the lucky winner.
Ideally, at least Oklahoma and Kansas would come along with Texas to provide geographic rivalries, but these schools simply have better options on the table. Plus, the Power 5 conferences are moving towards a Power 4 with 16-team conferences, and further expansion would put the ACC at 18 or 20.
Currently, the ACC earns $18M per school from ESPN for all TV rights. By adding Texas and Notre Dame, this would have to be renegotiated to a better value, as Texas is not going to be taking a pay cut. Considering the ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, and these two schools will only add to that, the conference could use this to its advantage. The large footprint, combined with Texas' Longhorn Network, would also help the ACC get its own network. Conveniently, ESPN owns both LHN and the rights to a future ACC Network. There should be no issues in turning LHN into ACC Network and eventually surpassing the income the SEC Network brings in. Yes, ESPN would have to renegotiate with the TV providers, but ESPN is the most powerful network of them all. The ACC should be able to reach $25M-$35M per year for each school, but it won't happen immediately.
Additionally, ACC schools earn the least amount of pay from the College Football Playoff. With the dissolution of the Big 12, the ACC has a chance to take the Big 12's spot (and the $40M that comes with it) in the Sugar Bowl. Combine that with the Orange Bowl's $27.5M payout and the $64.69M from the College Football Playoff, and ACC would each get $8.26M. That is a grand total of $33M-$43M per school, before NCAA Tournament revenues are added in.
4 divisions would be the best for this conference, but the conference could keep its current 2.
Ideally, at least Oklahoma and Kansas would come along with Texas to provide geographic rivalries, but these schools simply have better options on the table. Plus, the Power 5 conferences are moving towards a Power 4 with 16-team conferences, and further expansion would put the ACC at 18 or 20.
Currently, the ACC earns $18M per school from ESPN for all TV rights. By adding Texas and Notre Dame, this would have to be renegotiated to a better value, as Texas is not going to be taking a pay cut. Considering the ACC has the largest TV footprint of any conference, and these two schools will only add to that, the conference could use this to its advantage. The large footprint, combined with Texas' Longhorn Network, would also help the ACC get its own network. Conveniently, ESPN owns both LHN and the rights to a future ACC Network. There should be no issues in turning LHN into ACC Network and eventually surpassing the income the SEC Network brings in. Yes, ESPN would have to renegotiate with the TV providers, but ESPN is the most powerful network of them all. The ACC should be able to reach $25M-$35M per year for each school, but it won't happen immediately.
Additionally, ACC schools earn the least amount of pay from the College Football Playoff. With the dissolution of the Big 12, the ACC has a chance to take the Big 12's spot (and the $40M that comes with it) in the Sugar Bowl. Combine that with the Orange Bowl's $27.5M payout and the $64.69M from the College Football Playoff, and ACC would each get $8.26M. That is a grand total of $33M-$43M per school, before NCAA Tournament revenues are added in.
4 divisions would be the best for this conference, but the conference could keep its current 2.
ACC
West - Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Texas
North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
East - Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina St, Wake Forest
South - Clemson, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Miami
2. Oklahoma makes its pick
Oklahoma is the most sought after school after Texas and Notre Dame find their home. The Big Ten would be willing to waive the AAU requirement for the Sooners, while the SEC would love having another big brand. The Pac-12 wants OU, but the money simply isn't there without Texas. OU's options are complicated. The Big Ten and SEC both offer the most money and exposure. The SEC offers the football hotbed of the South, while the Big Ten offers the lesser recruiting ground of the North. Joining the SEC offers potential rivalries with Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and LSU. The Big Ten would allow Nebraska and Kansas, to go along with Michigan, Ohio St, and Penn St. Staying in the South is most important, though, and the current 8-game schedule would allow OU to keep both OSU and Texas on the permanent out-of-conference line-up. The SEC could eventually add a 9th game, but for now that factor makes the difference.
Kansas would listen to the Big Ten, but the appeal of the SEC is just too strong. Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and Georgia recruiting would help the football program, while the basketball program would be in annual showdowns with Kentucky.
2 divisions are more natural, so the SEC stick with East and West.
Kansas would listen to the Big Ten, but the appeal of the SEC is just too strong. Texas, Louisiana, Florida, and Georgia recruiting would help the football program, while the basketball program would be in annual showdowns with Kentucky.
2 divisions are more natural, so the SEC stick with East and West.
SEC
West - Arkansas, Kansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
East - Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
3. The Big Ten makes a tough decision
The Big Ten will not be happy and could move in a number of directions. West Virginia, UConn, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Houston, TCU, and Baylor are the only real options left, but all of them have flaws. Iowa St is the only AAU school, but the Big Ten already has Iowa. The rest are in markets that would expand the conference footprint, but lack on the research front in the classroom.
This call is really too tough for an outsider to make, but I'm going with WVU and KSU getting called up.
This call is really too tough for an outsider to make, but I'm going with WVU and KSU getting called up.
Big Ten
West - Illinois, Iowa, Kansas St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin
East - Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Rutgers, West Virginia
4. The Pac-12 cleans up
The Pac-12 would have a a few options left to expand. Oklahoma St and Texas Tech are the obvious choices. Then sits Iowa St, Baylor, TCU, Houston, BYU, and Boise St among bigger brands. BYU is the best program of all, with the largest fan base, but is a religious private school. I only believe the Pac-12 will allow a religious school in if it is, or would help land, Notre Dame. Since that is not an option at this point, Iowa St, Houston, and Boise St are the options remaining. Ultimately, Boise St brings in very little outside of a solid football program, so it does not get the call.
Pac-16
Northwest - Oregon, Oregon St, Washington, Washington St
Pacific - Cal, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA
Mountain - Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Utah
Central - Houston, Iowa St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech
What could a Texas schedule look like?
Division Games - 3 - Played every season.
1. Notre Dame (home in even years)
2. Louisville (home in odd years)
3. Pittsburgh (home in even years)
Inter-division Games - 6 - Played every other season.
4. Boston College (even) or Syracuse (odd)
5. Virginia Tech (even) or Virginia (odd)
6. North Carolina St (even) or North Carolina (odd)
7. Duke (even) or Wake Forest (odd)
8. Georgia Tech (even) or Clemson (odd)
9. Florida St (even) or Miami (odd)
Out-of-Conference Games - 3
10. Oklahoma (at Cotton Bowl Stadium)
11-12. Varying
Overview
This would cause problems on multiple fronts. First, Baylor and TCU fail to find a new home in the Power 5. The two could get together with the best brands left, including Boise St, BYU, and Cincinnati to create a new conference, or could float as Independents. Neither is as desirable as joining one of the top 4 conferences, and the pay reflects that. I would expect these two schools to sue the other former Big 12 schools for the Grant of Rights and exit fees.
For Texas, there is no guarantee the ACC would pay as much as the current Big 12, so this isn't a great choice. Being aligned without any in-state rivals is problematic, and the lack of intriguing games for Longhorn fans could turn them off.
For Texas, there is no guarantee the ACC would pay as much as the current Big 12, so this isn't a great choice. Being aligned without any in-state rivals is problematic, and the lack of intriguing games for Longhorn fans could turn them off.
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