CFP Redo: 2014

This will be an ongoing sequel series to my 16-part BCS Redo series. I will compare what the CFP actually gives us over the next few years with what we could've seen if my BCS Playoff System was used instead. This will also give an outlook as to why this system would be best for college football's future. Note - the rankings used are from the CFP rankings of the time, not my preferred formula. The CFP rankings are created solely from a selection committee, which is why they aren't exactly what my formula entails. Until I can crunch the numbers, this gets a close look at my true system. Also, the American Athletic Conference is no longer a member of the "Power 5 Conferences," meaning its champion has no automatic bid to the big bowl games.

What we saw in the 2014-2015 season:

Peach Bowl - Wednesday, December 31
6 TCU (11-1, Big 12 Co-Champion) vs 9 Mississippi (10-3, At-Large)

Fiesta Bowl - Wednesday, December 31
10 Arizona (10-3, At-Large) vs 20 Boise St. (11-2, Mountain West Champion)

Orange Bowl - Wednesday, December 31
7 Mississippi St. (10-2, At-Large) vs 12 Georgia Tech (10-3, At-Large)

Cotton Bowl - Thursday, January 1
5 Baylor (11-1, Big 12 Co-Champion) vs 8 Michigan St. (10-2, At-Large)

Rose Bowl (Semifinal) - Thursday, January 1
2 Oregon (12-1, Pac-12 Champion) vs 3 Florida St. (13-0, ACC Champion)

Sugar Bowl (Semifinal) - Thursday, January 1
1 Alabama (12-1, SEC Champion) vs 4 Ohio St. (12-1, Big Ten Champion)

CFP National Championship Game - Monday, January 12
2 Oregon (13-1, Rose Bowl Champion) vs 4 Ohio St. (13-1, Sugar Bowl Champion)

Using my BCS Playoff System:

Selection Order:
Tier 1: Sugar, Orange, Rose
Tier 2: Fiesta, Peach, Cotton

Semifinal #1 - Saturday, December 27
3 Florida St. (13-0, ACC Champion) @ 2 Oregon (12-1, Pac-12 Champion)

Semifinal #2 - Saturday, December 27
4 Ohio St. (12-1, Big Ten Champion) @ 1 Alabama (12-1, SEC Champion)

Rose Bowl - Thursday, January 1
8 Michigan St. (10-2, AQ) vs 10 Arizona (10-3, AQ)

Sugar Bowl - Thursday, January 1
5 Baylor (11-1, Big 12 Co-Champion) vs 7 Mississippi St. (10-2, AQ)

Orange Bowl - Friday, January 2
12 Georgia Tech (10-3, AQ) vs 11 Kansas St. (9-3, AQ)

Fiesta Bowl - Saturday, January 3
15 Arizona St. (9-3, At-Large) vs 20 Boise St. (11-2, MW Champion)

Peach Bowl - Monday, January 5
13 Georgia (9-3, At-Large) vs 14 UCLA (9-3, At-Large)

Cotton Bowl - Tuesday, January 6
6 TCU (11-1, Big 12 Co-Champion) vs 9 Mississippi (9-3, AQ)

National Championship Game - Monday, January 8
Semifinal #1 Winner vs Semifinal #2 Winner

Analysis:

In real life, the selection committee's rankings where questionable and controversial to say the least. How is an undefeated "Power 5 Conference" school have a lower ranking than two 1-loss teams? How does TCU win by 52 points and drop 3 spots in the poll? How did both Baylor and TCU get left out of the top 4? And, lesser hyped but still puzzling, how does Michigan St. -- a team that lost only to the #2 and #4 teams in the nation -- drop a spot in the final week in favor of Mississippi St. -- who lost to the #1 and #9 teams -- while both teams are on a bye? (Since the Orange Bowl is obligated to take the highest-ranked non-champion in the Big Ten or SEC, or Notre Dame, it seems even more sketchy as to why this switch happened -- $$$.)

Still, using my playoff plan, we are guaranteed more bowl games, but not necessarily better match-ups, as the biggest blow-outs remain intact (Oregon-Florida St, Oregon-Ohio St, TCU-Mississippi). The rankings were flawed, but it's all I have to work with.

First order of business deals with Baylor and TCU. Normally, we try to shoot for #5 vs #6, but we avoid rematches and having conference opponents play one another -- which this game would fit under. However, with the Cotton Bowl available, the teams' designation of "Big 12 Co-Champions," and the closeness and controversy of their regular season game, a rematch is very compelling and would be a money maker. As good as it sounds to finally find out who was the "One True Champion," the Big 12 would not go for this at all, and it would guarantee that conference a bowl loss. We'll shy away from it here.

With that said, Tier 1 is pretty simple. The Big Ten and Pac-12 have their second-best teams face off in the Rose Bowl. The SEC sends 7 Mississippi St. to the Sugar Bowl to face Big 12 co-champion 5 Baylor, who gets the nod with a higher ranking than, and head-to-head victory over, 6 TCU. 12 Georgia Tech replaces 3 Florida St. for the Orange Bowl bid. The bowl is backed into a corner for the other spot, as 6 TCU is ranked too high, a rematch with either 13 Georgia or 17 Clemson is off the table, and the remaining schools are some distance apart. It comes down to 11 Kansas St, 14 UCLA, 15 Arizona St, or 16 Missouri, with Kansas St getting the benefit of the doubt that its fans will travel.

For Tier 2 bowls, the Fiesta grabs 20 Boise St. In staying with Rule 6, the selection for an opponent is limited, so 15 Arizona St. makes the most sense. The Peach gets 13 Georgia and 14 UCLA, which guarantees a sell-out. The Cotton gladly takes 6 TCU and 9 Mississippi. While the Peach Bowl has a higher priority than the Cotton Bowl in this year, it only makes sense for TCU and Georgia to go to bowl that are close to home.